Toronto Maple Leafs Record Is Unsustainable: Four Ways to Fix That

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PITTSBURGH, PA – NOVEMBER 03: Toronto Maple Leafs Goalie Frederik Andersen (31) tends net during the first period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 3, 2018, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to win games, but be advised: they shouldn’t be winning this many.

One one hand, it is so easy to look at where the Toronto Maple Leafs are in the standings and think that once William Nylander and Auston Matthews come back that they will be one of the best teams of all time.

However, I don’t think this will happen. (At least, not right away).

The Leafs are the 18th best possession team in the NHL. They are under 50% and that decreases their chances of winning by a lot.

They have the highest PDO in the NHL (that is the combination of 5v5 save and shooting percentages. It will always revert to 100 over time, so anything above is lucky and anything below is unlucky). Their 5v5 save % is nearly a ridiculous 94% and it is very unlikely to stay that high.

The Leafs have the fifth best shooting percentage and the third best save percentage. That is good, but numbers like they have are more a function of good fortune than skill – they will regress and that is all but certain.

The Toronto Maple Leafs allow 33 shots per 60 minutes of 5v5 hockey. That is the third worst number in the NHL, and of the worst seven teams, the Leafs are the only one with a reasonable expectation of making the Playoffs.

Here are some ways that they can correct these problems:

TORONTO, ON – OCTOBER 15: Toronto Maple Leafs Defenceman Morgan Rielly (44) puts the brakes on during the NHL regular season game between the Los Angeles Kings and the Toronto Maple Leafs on October 15, 2018, at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON, Canada. (Photograph by Julian Avram/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Rielly and Hainsey

Morgan Rielly is racking up points and generally playing great, but his 38 shots against per 60 is absolutely horrible. The Leafs need to get him a better partner, one who can keep up with the pace of the game and who can compliment the game that Rielly plays.

It’s really nice that Rielly has become such a good player. I think he has exceeded all expectations of him from when he was drafted, and he is very much an elite #1 defenseman. What is more amazing is what he has accomplished while dragging Ron Hainsey around with him all the time.

Drew Doughty, P.K Subban, Victor Hedman, Seth Jones, Erik Karlsson, Dougie Hamilton – all Rielly’s peers have a better partner, so it’s time Leafs management did him a solid and followed suit.

They’ve already cut back his minutes against top competition, and he is already starting over 50% of his shifts in the O-zone (compared to Gardiner’s 43%) so without a new partner, there really isn’t much else they can do. Rielly has played really well, but you can’t have your best defenseman posting a negative three shot differential every 60 minutes.

Ron Hainsey is terrible. He is old, he is slow, it’s sad that the Leafs continue to play him every night. Hainsey may be a plus whatever, but plus/minus is a meaningless stat, and his PDO is an insane 105. He provides no offense, his defense is terrible (there isn’t a worse player at defending the rush in the NHL) and it’s long been proven that special teams skills aren’t worth a roster spot.

If the Leafs upgrade on Hainsey, they get better at two positions, so they really can’t do this soon enough

Zach Hyman

Everyone’s favorite grinder is not a top six winger.

Tavares and Marner either have or almost have a negative shot differential at 5v5 (it’s around 50% so depending on their last game, it’s usually just above or just below), and if they had a left winger who was equal to their skill level, that probably wouldn’t be happening. Hyman has worse shots-against numbers than either of his linemates.

Like everyone else, I’m a fan of Hyman’s. I just don’t think he’s a good choice for a top six winger. Almost anyone can allow 34 shots per game, and almost anyone else would provide more offense. I like him, the coach likes him, but it’s been an entire lifetime of mediocrity in Toronto, so the Leafs are going to have to make tough calls, and sooner or later, one of those is going to be to demote Hyman.

I believe that the idea that two skilled players somehow need a grinder to get them the puck is one of the worst old-school hockey dogma narratives in existence. Replace Hyman with Josh Leivo and watch the Leafs improve. Conversely, Hyman and Brown centred by Lindholm would probably be the best fourth line in hockey by six miles, so the Leafs win twice with this move.

BOSTON, MA – APRIL 25: Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (29) starts a rush up ice during Game 7 of the First Round for the 2018 Stanley Cup Playoffs between the Boston Bruins and the Toronto Maple Leafs on April 25, 2018, at TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts. The Bruins defeated the Maple Leafs 7-4. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

Nylander, Matthews, Marleau

Bring me more of the first two, less of the last one.

Even Auston Matthews was getting outshot while healthy. The fact that he was scoring on every other shot kind of hid this, but it’s true. Nylander will help here, and having both players in the lineup should push the team to above 50% possession. They will also ensure that Marner and Tavares face easier matchups, and that will help them too. (Pretty much everyone, actually).

Getting these guys back in the lineup will be awesome. Remember, as good as the Leafs are, they haven’t iced their optimal lineup one single time yet this year.

As for Marleau, again, I am a fan, but, again, hard calls are needed if you want to win. We very clearly need less Marleau. He’s a nice guy, he never misses a game and he used to be great. But he allows too many shots against as well. I don’t mind him on the third line with Kapanen and Kadri (in fact, I think that is an awesome line) but his power play time should be going to Leivo, Johnsson and Kapanen, once Nylander and Matthews are back.

TORONTO – APRIL 23: From left, Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Ron Hainsey, center Mitchell Marner and defenseman Morgan Rielly celebrate Marner’s goal in the second period. The Toronto Maple Leafs host the Boston Bruins in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference First Round during the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at the Air Canada Centre in Toronto, Ontario on April 23, 2018. (Photo by Barry Chin/The Boston Globe via Getty Images) /

Defenseman and Ice TIme

One main way the Leafs could allow less shots is to give more minutes to their best shot defensemen. Jake Gardiner, Morgan Rielly and Travis Dermott are significantly and objectively better than whatever else the Leafs have to offer.

Travis Dermott plays two minutes less per game than Ron Hainsey. No one on the Leafs exceeds 22 minutes per night. 22 of the league’s 31 teams have a defenseman who plays 24 minutes per night. The Leafs should raise the minutes of Dermott, Gardiner and Rielly to significantly improve their team.

Morgan Rielly is the 44th most used defenseman in the NHL, in terms of time played per game. I don’t think it takes a genius to see the Leafs could be playing him a bit more when he is easily better than most of the guys playing more minutes.

The Leafs have three defenseman that could all effectively play 24 minutes per night, Dermott, Rielly and Gardiner. If we adjust their current ice time levels per game to 24 minutes, the Leafs would be able to add ten minutes per game where they are playing their best players over their worst ones.

Next. Nylander Trade Comparisons. dark

I think it would be a significant upgrade.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are a good team, but they can be a great team. Frederick Andersen is making them look better than they are, and if they are serious about winning the Stanley Cup, they’ve got to get the shots against under control.

stats from Naturalstattrick.com

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