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Toronto Maple Leafs Record Is Unsustainable: Four Ways to Fix That

By James Tanner

CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 07: The Toronto Maple Leafs celebrate after an NHL hockey game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Chicago Blackhawks on October 07, 2018, at the United Center in Chicago, IL. Toronto won in overtime 7-6. (Photo By Daniel Bartel/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 07: The Toronto Maple Leafs celebrate after an NHL hockey game between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Chicago Blackhawks on October 07, 2018, at the United Center in Chicago, IL. Toronto won in overtime 7-6. (Photo By Daniel Bartel/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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PITTSBURGH, PA – NOVEMBER 03: Toronto Maple Leafs Goalie Frederik Andersen (31) tends net during the first period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 3, 2018, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – NOVEMBER 03: Toronto Maple Leafs Goalie Frederik Andersen (31) tends net during the first period in the NHL game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 3, 2018, at PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, PA. (Photo by Jeanine Leech/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /

The Toronto Maple Leafs continue to win games, but be advised: they shouldn’t be winning this many.

One one hand, it is so easy to look at where the Toronto Maple Leafs are in the standings and think that once William Nylander and Auston Matthews come back that they will be one of the best teams of all time.

However, I don’t think this will happen. (At least, not right away).

The Leafs are the 18th best possession team in the NHL.  They are under 50% and that decreases their chances of winning by a lot.

They have the highest PDO in the NHL (that is the combination of 5v5 save and shooting percentages. It will always revert to 100 over time, so anything above is lucky and anything below is unlucky).  Their 5v5 save % is nearly a ridiculous 94% and it is very unlikely to stay that high.

The Leafs have the fifth best shooting percentage and the third best save percentage.  That is good, but numbers like they have are more a function of good fortune than skill – they will regress and that is all but certain.

The Toronto Maple Leafs allow 33 shots per 60 minutes of 5v5 hockey.  That is the third worst number in the NHL, and of the worst seven teams, the Leafs are the only one with a reasonable expectation of making the Playoffs.

Here are some ways that they can correct these problems:

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