Toronto Maple Leafs: Explaining the Andrew Nielsen Trade

The Toronto Maple Leafs certainly made a trade late Tuesday night, but it was not the one fans expected.

Andrew Nielsen‘s days in the Leafs organization had been numbered for some time.

It wasn’t always this way, though

A member of Toronto’s continually promising 2015 draft class, the former third-round pick symbolized the kind of risk/reward selection process that has since become a crucial component to roster construction in the modern NHL.

In drafting Nielsen, the Leafs took a swing. And some swings wind up as misses.

Nielsen had tools. He still does, in fact. Blessed with an enticing combination of size, offensive instinct and a booming shot, Nielsen’s toolbox served as a form of scouting catnip – enough to convince teams that they possessed the means to coax out his best.

A tweak in his skating stride here. A couple (hundred) hours spent with the development staff to improve his defensive awareness there and voila. You had a player.

It just became increasingly clear as of late that, if a player indeed existed, he would never suit up for the Leafs.

Hiccups in a prospect’s development are fine, if not even completely expected. Few players are capable of making an immediate impact in the professional ranks and are likely to struggle upon facing an opposition of grown men for the first time. So, naturally, growing pains are inevitable. But as long as those pains justify their namesake and ultimately lead to growth, they can otherwise be chalked up as necessary obstacles on the developmental curve.

Stagnation, however, is when worry should set in. And Nielsen’s progression has thus far remained mostly stagnant.

Offence was never the issue with Nielsen. Joining the Marlies full time during the 2016-17 season, Nielsen actually proved perfectly capable of producing at the AHL level – with a rookie campaign that saw him put up 39 points in 74 games at over a point per game pace.

Three years later, both totals remain career highs. How could this be?

Well, there are a number of reasons as to why Nielsen’s initial foundation seemingly became his ceiling.

First and foremost, his aforementioned defensive gaps cannot be overstated. Even the most offensively gifted defencemen are unable to rely on their abilities on one side of the puck alone. Especially not those who one day intend to play under Mike Babcock. Diversification is a necessity in the modern game and, unfortunately, Nielsen’s game failed to diversify.

Sure, he could put the puck in the net – and was certainly given ample enough power play time to do so – but that quickly became Nielsen’s sole means to contribute and, in turn, withheld him from actual growth.

The Marlies, even in their current iteration sans Martin Marincin and Justin Holl, are simply too deep on defence to justify the presence of a one-dimensional contributor.

Nielsen’s issues in his own zone are primarily what prevented Sheldon Keefe from feeling comfortable in using him to kill penalties or defend late-game leads. Now 4 years into his pro career, Nielsen’s usage is decidedly sheltered. And once fellow back-end prospects like Timothy Liljegren and even Rasmus Sandin began to consistently produce at a comparable rate while, in turn, paying their defensive responsibilities an adequate amount of attention, the final nail hit the coffin.

Nielsen became expendable.

Which isn’t to say this was for a lack of trying. Nielsen, by all accounts, is a hard worker – someone who genuinely sought to improve his game and was willing to put in the hours needed to do so.

Unfortunately, it just didn’t happen. For prospects, sometimes it never does.

Now, some of this developmental stunting lay outside of Nielsen’s control. Putting the work in does not always lead to favourable results. But there is one aspect, and an important one at that, of which he has complete control over and repeatedly failed to correct; penalties.

As in, Nielsen took and still takes way too many of them.

Prospects, particularly those cut from the same hulking cloth as Nielsen, tend to fall into this trap all too often. It’s a slippery slope. Mired in a stretch of futility, their first instinct is to set the game’s physical toll in order to remedy this, seeking out highlight reel hits and poorly thought out fights as a means of attracting attention.

What this typically leads to, unfortunately, is penalties. Lots of them. And it’s generally pretty difficult to improve your organizational standing while locked in a 4×4 box for 2 minutes at a time.

Nielsen spent 143 minutes inside that box last season, a total nearly double that of the next closest Marlie, Rich Clune, who served 75. Think about that for a second.

Of the 65 total games that Nielsen suited up for in 2017-18, the equivalent of nearly two and a half were spent with him sitting solely in the penalty box, handicapping his own team in the process and withholding his development from game action. For a prospect in such desperate need of making use of every possible opportunity to fend for himself amidst an ever-thickening internal pipeline, forfeiting playing time so willingly is likely what sealed his fate.

Were he to have stayed with the Marlies, Nielsen almost certainly would have failed to match his 65 games from the year prior. Now 25 games into this current season, Nielsen has only seen the lineup for 8. 3 points, all assists, are what he has to show for it.

And in remaining true to recent form, the 12 penalty minutes Nielsen has served thus far are still enough to place him third on the Marlies in that category, only 3 behind the team’s leader, Dmytro Timashov, having done so in 18 games.

This is a legitimate problem.

Nevertheless, the trade benefits both parties to a reasonable extent.

The Marlies recoup asset in return for a prospect they had no intention of using and further clear space at LHD for Sandin, barring whether or not the team ultimately decides he should stay. In turn, Nielsen – firmly on the outside of the Marlies’ top-6 looking in –  finds a new home where he will likely be given regular minutes and maybe, just maybe, take those next steps which have been expected of him for the past 4 years.

Keep in mind, he’s still only 22. Crazier things have happened.

Thanks for reading!

All stats courtesy of hockeydb.com