Toronto Maple Leafs: Will Mike Babcock Finish His Contract?

Will Mike Babcock still be coaching the Toronto Maple Leafs when his contract expires?

On the heels of a disappointing start to the season, the Chicago Blackhawks’ decision to let their head coach, Joel Quenneville, go has garnered a far greater impact than the organization likely anticipated. Coach Q’s dismissal kickstarted a ripple effect, one which has since cascaded outwards beyond the realm of the Blackhawks and led those in hockey circles elsewhere to do some serious reflection.

Quenneville is not Wayne Gretzky. As such, linking the phrase, “if Quenneville can get fired, anyone can get fired” to the events from the prior week would not be entirely accurate, especially considering how ruthlessly cutthroat the coaching carousel tends to be in this league.

Superstars of Gretzky’s echelon are rarely, if ever, traded. Coaches get fired all the time.

Nevertheless, Quenneville stands today as the second-winningest head coach in NHL history. The man is a three-time Stanley Cup champion. And while his tenure in Chicago met its untimely end on November 6th after 10 full seasons, Quenneville’s legacy is one in which he ultimately guided the Blackhawks to the playoffs in 9 of them, reaching the Conference Finals or beyond in 5.

Frankly, Quenneville is the closest thing to a behind-the-bench superstar one can find in the modern NHL. And his employer just handed him his walking papers. 15 games into the season, no less.

So, to offer a slight alteration: “if Quenneville can get fired, your team’s head coach might be next”. 

Which brings us to Mike Babcock, perhaps the lone bench boss working today who can offer a claim of shared residence in Quenneville’s tier. It’s fitting, really. Babcock and Quenneville bear a host of similarities.

Joining Original Six teams amidst a period of significant organizational dysfunction, each inherited a duo of star forwards of whom were drafted in the two years prior to their respective arrivals (Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane for Quenneville; Mitch Marner and William Nylander for Babcock), and quickly took a predominately youthful roster to a postseason birth.

The Blackhawks’ playoff drought spanned 5 seasons before Quenneville’s squad qualified in 2008-09. Babcock’s Maple Leafs snapped a 5-year drought of their own in 2016-17.

And, for the Leafs, things seem to be going pretty well right now. At the time of writing, the team currently sits second in the entire Eastern Conference despite having lacked 2/3 of their top line for the bulk of the year, emerged victorious from what was arguably the biggest free agent bidding war of the salary cap era, and, emboldened by one of the most lethal young cores in recent memory, seem destined to embark upon a multi-year dynasty.

The key difference in tenures here – save for the former’s lack of a Stanley Cup in Toronto – is that we have entered into only year four of the Babcock Era. There is still plenty of time for things to go wrong. And while such a notion can be attributed to literally any relationship between organization and coach in pro sports, let’s, for argument’s sake, chart a doomsday course.

What Could Go Wrong?

Quick preface; Babcock has repeatedly voiced his intent to stay with the Leafs for the entirety of his contract, going so far as to suggest he’ll actually sign for additional 2 years after his original 8 are up because the team will “just be that good”.

So, according to the man himself, he’s here to stay. But that doesn’t mean we can’t wildly speculate!

Whether ultimately proving to be true or not, reports of some behind-closed-doors tension have surfaced in the wake of Kyle Dubas‘ appointment to the General Manager’s post. These aren’t your boisterous, “Draymond Green repeatedly calling Kevin Durant ‘a b*tch’” cracks in the armour. They’re subtle. More paper cuts than knife wounds.

They are also rumours – purely unsubstantiated ones at that which bear zero factual evidence.

But again, for argument’s sake, let’s afford them a glimmer of merit.

It’s no secret that a host of perceived Babcock disciples found themselves quickly jettisoned under the newly implemented Dubas vision. Even the most decorated coaches tend to fall victim to a reliance on outdated player judgements from time to time. Babcock is no different. His usage of Matt Martin, Leo Komarov and, especially, Roman Polak actively withheld the Leafs’ roster from tapping into their true potential and the decision to move on from both during the summer made complete sense from a modern hockey standpoint.

Still, Babcock is notorious for how staunchly stubborn he is regarding his players – those locked within his doghouse and those decidedly outside of it.

Think of all the names from the Babcock Era who could be classified as a coach’s favourite.

Roman Polak? Gone. Matt Martin? Gone. Leo Komarov? Gone. Curtis McElhinney? Gone for free. Ron Hainsey? Almost certainly gone as a UFA this summer. Connor Brown? Him being dealt is a meme now. Nikita Zaitsev? Rumoured to be Dubas’ white whale trade chip.

Practically every Babcock safety net, save for Zach Hyman, has either been deliberately punted from the organization already or is a likely candidate to follow suit in the near future. That can’t sit well with Babcock – someone well-known for displaying an emphasis on control.

If the Leafs once again bow out of the playoffs early this year, and Babcock deems the lineup’s distinct lack of veterans capable of making the “safe play” as the cause, how much longer does he afford Dubas the benefit of the doubt? And, considering how the coach’s job is to ice the team his general manager gives to him and not the other way around, how does Dubas react to Babcock’s hypothetical scepticism?

A rumoured divide on the topic of player evaluation between Quenneville and Blackhawks’ GM Stan Bowman is perhaps the most pointed-to sign foretelling of the former’s eventual departure.

Quenneville reportedly stormed out of a fan event upon hearing news that his star forward, Artemi Panarin, had been dealt to Columbus for minimal return. He was reportedly quite upset with the decision to trade Niklas Hjalmarsson, a defensively solid blueliner and one of Quenneville’s favourites, for magic beans in Conor Murphy as well.

Neither trade worked out for the Blackhawks and that seemingly deepened their front office divide. This, funnily enough, is where Babcock’s doomsday course may deviate from Quenneville’s altogether.

If Bowman turns his aforementioned swings from misses into home runs, Quenneville almost certainly maintains his position as Chicago’s head coach when the sun sets on November 15th, 2018. Winning tends to do that. It has a way of mending situations that otherwise appear broken.

The Leafs, sans Polak et al, are a markedly better team in their construction and project to stay that way in the years to come. If Dubas opts to completely strip Babcock of his toys and the team only continues to get better, how upset can the coach truly be?

There are a lot of mitigating factors here. And, regardless, only time will tell whether or not they ultimately come to fruition. Thankfully, though, this is far from a pressing issue, as this bridge is one that neither Babcock nor Dubas are expected to cross in the immediate future.

We can all go back to screaming about Nylander now.

Thanks for reading!