Toronto Maple Leafs: Breaking the Season into 5 Game Segments

The Toronto Maple Leafs have had a strong start to the year, and have won each of their first two five-game segments.

The Toronto Maple Leafs went 8-4 during the month of October, and were one of the NHL’s highest scoring teams.

The month of October can be considered one of the most crucial stretches for NHL teams during the regular season schedule.  The points count the same as they do later in the year, and so it’s important to get on the board early when other teams may be struggling with new coaches, rosters or systems.  Any team that can take advantage of the sloppy, high scoring hockey October has to offer has a great advantage.

Overall, it was a very good month for the Leafs who, even though they are without two of their best players, managed to finish near the top of the standings.

The Five-Game Segment

When the Toronto Maple Leafs signed head coach Mike Babcock in 2015, they incorporated the five-game segment into their system. Mike Babcock likes to split the NHL regular season into five-game segments, striving for six points earned in each of those segments. The five-game segment has been a staple in the Toronto Maple Leafs system since Babcock’s arrival, and has been trending upwards.

The difference between good NHL teams, and great NHL teams falls upon many factors. One of the most important factors is having a good start to the season. Starting the season off slow could negatively impact many team situations throughout the season, including divisional placement and future playoff implications.

Getting The Upper Hand

It was the 2015/2016 NHL season the Toronto Maple Leafs and head coach Mike Babcock first implemented the five-game segment. In their first two segments, the Maple Leafs dropped nine of their first ten games; gaining only four points in the standings. The terrible start would contribute to one of the worst seasons in franchise history, finishing dead last in the NHL standings.

I created a graph to show the progression the Toronto Maple Leafs have made with their first two five-game segments since it was implemented.

Analyzing The Segments

Despite losing Auston Matthews for an extended period of time, the Toronto Maple Leafs have set themselves up for success by getting off to an excellent start to the 2018/2019 NHL regular season.

During the first two segments, the Toronto Maple Leafs found themselves playing 80’s hockey for a small stretch. The team scored 38 goals, and also gave up 32 in ten games. The Leafs finished off the month of October with 16 points in the standings, claiming 2nd in the Atlantic Division. Their total goals for moved up to 42, and finished with 37 goals against.

With a high flying offense as potent as the Leafs and defense nearly unchanged from the previous year, the Toronto Maple Leafs have scored and defended as expected.

What Needs Improvement

Starting On Time

The Toronto Maple Leafs have not been able to start games on time this season, allowing the first goal in nine of their first twelve games. Despite giving up the first goal in the majority of their games to start the season, they managed to climb their way back in five of those nine games. The Toronto Maple Leafs have a perfect 3-0-0 record when scoring first this season, and a 5-5-0 record when allowing the first goal. If the Toronto Maple Leafs want to get to that “next level”, they need to start on time and score the first goal of the game.

Home VS Away

When Scotiabank announced the name change of the Air Canada Center to Scotiabank Arena, it put a curse on the Toronto Maple Leafs home record. That’s what every fan believes in their heart, but it’s not the case. The Toronto Maple Leafs have played eight games at home this season, and have posted a measly 3-5-0 record. In eight home games to start the season, the Toronto Maple Leafs have scored first in only one game. There is no “curse” to Scotiabank Arena, the only curse is allowing the away team to score first and having to play from behind at home seven of the eight times they have played there.

Depth Scoring

When the Toronto Maple Leafs signed John Tavares, the idea was to ice a roster with enough scoring depth to be an offensive threat in all situations. If the Toronto Maple Leafs want to take the next step, their bottom six needs to start producing. Their bottom six forwards have only combined for thirteen points through thirteen games.

To give some perspective, the top line of Landeskog/MacKinnon/Rantanen for the Colorado Avalanche combined for seven points alone in their OT loss to the Vancouver Canucks on Friday. That is roughly half the production of the entire bottom six in Toronto, in twelve fewer games.

Here are the totals for the Toronto Maple Leafs bottom six forwards:

Josh Leivo- 1G, 3A, 4PTS (13GP)

Tyler Ennis- 1G, 1A, 2PTS (10GP)

Connor Brown- 1G, 2A, 3PTS (13GP)

Andreas Johnsson- 0G, 1A, 1PT (8GP)

Frederik Gauthier- 0G, 0A, 0PTS (10GP)

Par Lindholm- 1G, 2A, 3PTS  (13GP)

The Toronto maple Leafs had a very successful October, despite a few rough games from Andersen, the missing Nylander, the injured Matthews and slow starts from Kadri and basically every winger not named Marner.  October is over,and the future looks bright.

How do you think the Toronto Maple Leafs will do in November?

Statistics provided by: hockeyreference