Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner, drafted by the Leafs 4th overall in 2015, led the Leafs offense with two assists against the Winnipeg Jets October 27, 2018.
After earning one assist in their first meeting of the season, Mitch Marner now has three assists for the Toronto Maple Leafs in two games against the Winnipeg Jets this season.
Marner is a hometown hero. He was born and raised in Toronto and now has surpassed Morgan Rielly as second on the Leafs in scoring. Marner has 15 points in 11 games this season, one point behind team points leader Auston Matthews who has 16 points. A closer look, however, reveals that Matthews and Marner have both produced 11 points at even strength through their first 11 games.
If Matthews misses an extended amount of time with another shoulder injury, Marner will indefinitely surpass him as the Leafs leading scorer (just like he did in 2017/18 during both the regular season and the playoffs).
Looking at Marner’s assists per 60 minutes, one shockingly discovers that Mitch has actually generated primary assists at a better rate than Connor McDavid has in 2018/19 (according to their assist rate metrics). McDavid is scoring goals at a slightly better rate though (so at least Oilers fans have that).
Note: it’s still early in the season so this may all be a statistical anomaly (let’s hope it’s not). I’ll check back around the middle of the season to see if Marner is still generating more assists per 60 minutes than McDavid (even though I’d bet he won’t be, I still hope he is).
Consistency is key for Marner
Marner has only been held off the score sheet three times so far this season. One of those scoreless games was against Pittsburgh, a game where no Leaf scored. None of his scoreless nights have occurred consecutively. In 2018/19, Mitch has always bounced back and produced offense in the games following a performance where he didn’t register a point.
In the 11 games Mitch has played, 5 were multi-point performances. Including a 4-point night (once goal, three assists) on October 9, 2018 against the Dallas Stars.
Mitch played a full 82 game season in 2017/18. If he keeps his offensive production where it’s at now, after 82 games this season he will be a hundred point player. Here’s the math behind that:
There’s 82 games in a season, the Leafs have played 11.
82/11 = 7.45 (rounded to the nearest hundredth)
In 11 games, Mitch has 11 assists and 4 goals.
(11×7.45)+(4×7.45) = X (Marner’s expected points)
81.95+29.8= 111.75
Although this seems like a long shot, I actually don’t doubt that it’s possible. Look at how Marner turned around the second half of his sophomore season. History has shown that he elevates his play as the season goes on. Leafs fans can reasonably assume his scoring rate will rise or remain constant as the season goes on, not decline.
Conclusion
Since the second half of last season, Marner has stormed the NHL as one of its top forwards. Marner’s numbers are actually rivaling McDavid’s right now (they are good to comparable because both were top end draft picks in 2015). While McDavid is considered one of the greatest players in the world right now, maybe the best, while Marner is largely out of that conversation.
I think this benefits Marner though.
He doesn’t have the same pressure put on him that players like Crosby, McDavid, Tavares and Matthews do. Yet in many ways, Mitch is just as good as they are. He’s every bit as creative and he actually probably cares a lot about the team he plays for.
I think that is one of the most important aspects of the Toronto Maple Leafs’ depth this season. It doesn’t just create match up nightmares for opposing coaches, it also gives Toronto’s stars a chance to not be in the spotlight the entire time. They share it.
Connor McDavid doesn’t have that luxury. He is the alpha wolf on his team all the time. If he has an off night, so do the Oilers. Their success lives and dies with the plays he makes.
On the other hand, Marner can quietly start the season by scoring 15 points in 11 games in the media crazed landscape of Toronto and yet few writers will bat an eyelash because they are too busy obsessing over other story lines. Namely, Kadri’s goal drought (which since has ended); Tavares’ homecoming; Nylander’s absence; and Matthews’ insane 10 goals in six games.
This is going to be a big year for Mitch Marner and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Don’t be surprised if Marner leads the Leafs (and the NHL) in scoring in the post-season this year. Both the eye test and the numbers both say he’s ready for a breakout campaign.
Thanks for reading!
All stats from Hockey-reference.com and NHL.com