Where the Toronto Maple Leafs Stand 10 Games Into the Season

Ten games into the 2018-19 season, the Toronto Maple Leafs have proven to be one of the best teams in the NHL.

We are roughly 12% through the season and the Toronto Maple Leafs didn’t waste much time demonstrating just how good they will be this year.

Heading into Saturday’s rematch against the Winnipeg Jets, the Leafs currently sit tied for 1st in both the Atlantic Division and the Eastern Conference with the Boston Bruins (ew). Their 7-3-0 record is also second best in the entire league, behind only the Nashville Predators as per Hockey Reference.

These numbers show the team is off to a great start and have a good chance of making the playoffs for a third consecutive season. However, they don’t tell the full story.

Let’s dive in a little deeper at the numbers and get a clearer vision of how the Leafs are doing to start the 2018-19 season.

Decent Team Numbers

Looking at some of the numbers the Leafs have posted to start the season, you get a sense that the team has been a good team for the most part.

Looking at Natural Stat Trick, the Leafs currently have a Corsi-for% of 50.27 which is 16th best in the NHL. While that may be a sign they aren’t as effective at controlling the play, the small sample size has to be taken into consideration.

The same goes with some other stats from Natural Stat Trick. They have the 13th best SF% (49.68), 8th best GF% (54.29) and SCF% (52.14),  and the 9th best PDO in the NHL (1.020).

This chart from Bill Comeau has the Leafs with the 8th best-expected Goals/60, while this chart from Sean Tierney has the Leafs in the middle of the pack in terms of 5v5 shot share. Meaning, the Leafs are one of the best in the league at expected goals but average when it comes to shots for and shots against.

So what do all of these numbers represent? Simply put, the Leafs are about average in puck possession but also among the best in scoring chances, goals, and shots.

It seems clear the Leafs have stacked up well when compared to the rest of the NHL. These should only increase with more time and confidence in their playing system.

Leafs Becoming Somewhat Top-Heavy

Shifting focus to the Leafs players themselves, the early goings of the season have seen the Leafs mainly being carried by their best players. While such players are usually the ones to find success, it’s been nearly exclusively the top-guns that have gotten it done.

In this chart from Bill Comeau, the 5 Leafs with the best 5v5 Game Score Per 60 are the expected ones. Other than Par Lindholm though, no other member of the team has their Game Score above 2.

That disparity is further highlighted by this Roster Game Score chart and this STACKS chart. It shows the likes of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, and Morgan Rielly are miles ahead of everyone else on the roster currently.

The fact that only 5 players on the team has 7 points or better thus far is a pretty telling sign just how much the Leafs count on their stars to succeed. Especially with William Nylander, not present, guys like Nazem Kadri, Patrick Marleau, and Jake Gardiner will need up and fast.

What about Frederik Andersen, how has he been doing in his cursed month? Actually, it has been fairly decent.

So far this season, he has a .916 SV%, 2.66 GAA, faced 250 shots, and made 229 saves. When compared to the rest of the league, that would have him ranked 11th, 14th, 7th, and 6th respectively. (Minimum 300 minutes played)

Additionally, the advanced stats have Andersen in the middle of the pack which is a nice change of pace compared to the previous two Octobers. His SV% differential has him comparable to the likes of Carey Price and Ben Bishop, while his results vs. expectations have him right in the middle of the group.

Basically, the former shows he is doing slightly better than what is expected based on workload while the latter has him ranked a good goalie but not among the best. Historically, his numbers have improved in the months after October as per ESPN so you can expect that to continue.

Outlook

Let’s get one thing straight: these numbers aren’t reflective how the team will do at the end of the season and everything I mentioned is bound to change in the months ahead. Based on the early returns though, it’s been mostly positive for the Blue and White.

As expected, the Leafs have been one of the top offensive teams in the NHL and have been great at generating quality scoring chances. The team is relying a bit too much on their star players to succeed while Andersen is having a good month of October overall.

What does this all mean? In the simplest of terms, the Leafs have been great in some areas and lacking in others.

Taking these numbers listed with what has happened on the ice concludes the team is trending in the right direction for the most part. Should they tidy up on a few areas (and bring back Nylander), the sky is the limit.

Thanks for reading!

All stats unless otherwise noted are from Natural Stat Trick and Hockey Reference.