Toronto Maple Leafs: Is Patrick Marleau Done?
The Toronto Maple Leafs are off to a decent start to this NHL season.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been skating Patrick Marleau on the top line, and as much as I respect him, he’s been terrible. Someone’s got to ask the tough question: Is Patrick Marleau done?
The Leafs got off to a great, high-flying start to the season but have only scored once in their last two games, as sky-high shooting percentages and special teams percentages started to correct to the norm.
One problem plaguing the Leafs so far is the performance of their top line. The Auston Matthews, Patrick Marleau, Kasperi Kapanen line has scored quite a few goals, but has not been good overall. This is problematic because the Leafs need Matthews to dominate if they want to compete for a Stanley Cup.
But wait a minute Jim, doesn’t Matthews have an INSANE 10 goals in nine games?
Well yes he does, so allow me to explain.
Top Line Troubles
Auston Matthews has scored on over 30% of his shots. Assuming 300 shots on the year, that is a 90 goal pace, which would be like Wayne Gretzky scoring 150 during his 92 goal year during the goal-inflated eighties.
As good as Matthews is, he’s been very lucky. The team is scoring almost 20% when he’s on the ice. That means the Leafs, with Matthews on the ice, have been scoring on one in five shots. And that includes the fact that they’ve scored one goal over the last two games in total.
When a player scores on a high percentage of their shots, they are guaranteed to regress. If they are doing it while posting a possession rating under 50%, they’re going to be in trouble when the goals run out.
On the Season, Auston Matthews is 46% possession. That is really bad for a first line centre. It’s really bad for Auston Matthews. Even though he’s averaging over a point per game at even-strength, the Toronto Maple Leafs have been outscored by two goals while Matthews has been on the ice this season (5v5).
Not good.
And this brings us to……
Patrick Marleau
Despite the fact that Matthews has put up an eye-popping five goals and four assists just at regular strength during the team’s first nine games, Patrick Marleau has just two assists.
Considering that he has been on the ice for 124 of his 135 total minutes (5v5) with Matthews, that is almost impossible to believe.
Here is the biggest problem:
Auston Matthews with Patrick Marleau: 45% CF this season.
Auston Matthews without Patrick Marleau (for his career): 50.59%
It’s exceedingly clear that Marleau is a drag on Matthews. Zach Hyman makes Matthews possession stats skyrocket, and Marleau can’t play that game. At all.
Hyman digs, Hyman retrieves the puck and smashes into people. Marleau just skates up and down the ice, mostly invisible unless he has the puck, which he rarely ever does.
Patrick Marleau is averaging less than five shots per 60, which is less than Frederick Gauthier. He can’t score or create offense despite playing with one of the best players in the NHL.
He is going up against top competition, but the biggest factor in player success is who you play with. This is extremely disconcerting, and it’s up to Mike Babcock to find a way to make Marleau effective.
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But running him out on the top line every night is not the way to do it. This once great player deserves to be in a situation that he can handle. The Leafs need every point they can muster, due to their division featuring three of the NHL’s best teams, and they can’t afford to have an ineffective player on the top line.
Is Patrick Marleau done? As a top line player, absolutely. But he was OK last year with Kadri, and the Toronto Maple Leafs should re-unite them since Kadri isn’t doing so hot either. Marleau is expensive and it would make sense to try and get him going.