Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews Will Not Score 102 Goals

Auston Matthews added himself to a prestigious list with his seventh consecutive multi-point game as the Toronto Maple Leafs downed the L.A. Kings 4-1 last Monday.

In a bid to propel his team to victory this past Monday night, Auston Matthews recorded a pair of assists to complement Kasperi Kapanen‘s his first ever multi-goal game in the NHL. The duo appears to be a step in the right direction in lieu of William Nylander‘s absence, as Tyler Ennis saw his time on the top unit end and has since been shifted to a bottom-six role.

As far as records are concerned, Matthews became the first player to record seven multi-point games to begin a season since Mario Lemieux and Kevin Stevens each accomplished the feat in 1992-93. Unfortunately, the noteworthy streak came to an end on Thursday following a date with the Pittsburgh Penguins and Matthews has presumably fallen back to earth after hanging with some of the all-time greats.

The statistic is highly commendable and should be praised as such, however, Matthews can attribute his success to the lofty 45.5% shooting percentage he sustained before running into Matt Murray and company. Goalies were left antagonized by the skilled youngster until the Toronto Maple Leafs were shut out 3-0 by the Penguins on Thursday.

Still, Matthews is averaging 1.25 goals-per-game after lighting the lamp ten times through his team’s first eight games of the season. It may underline the raw skill of Toronto’s franchise centre—but it’s certainly not a sustainable resource.

Charlie Simmer holds the highest single-season shooting percentage in NHL history, with a minimum of 82 shots on goal, after recording 56 goals on 171 shots (32.7%) in 1980-81. Based on this and the outlook of Matthews’ current rate of production, he is evidently bound to regress over the course of an entire 82-game season—although he should rank among the top end of league leaders in this respect.

To project a record-shattering season is wishful thinking but not impossible. As outlandish as a 102-goal pace may be, it could spell the beginning of a monstrous breakout season for the newly 21-year-old franchise centre.

Exceeding a High Precedent

Last season, not a single player recorded fifty goals despite Alex Ovechkin’s best attempt to secure his eighth-career 50+ goal campaign—only to fall just short at 49. Fifty appears to be a reasonable bar for Matthews at this point in time, although it’s beginning to look less eccentric to believe he could be the first to tally 60 since Steven Stamkos did so back in 2011-12.

Previously, it was the industry-standard in Alex Ovechkin who was dropping jaws with his meticulous 65-goal campaign in 2007-08. Stamkos and Ovechkin are the only two players to achieve the milestone over the last twenty years. In retrospect, 2012 Hockey Hall of Fame inductee Pavel Bure narrowly missed the mark in 1999-00 and 2000-01 with consecutive 58 and 59-goal campaigns, respectively.

The rate at which goals are scored has not fluctuated drastically over the past 19 seasons but averages out to 2.77 goals-per-game. While there has been a slight increase in recent years, this season has seen a peculiar spike to 3.13 GPG early on. Despite the fact that games tend to be higher-scoring at the beginning of a season, this upward trend can only be seen as a positive for goal-scoring enthusiasts such as Auston Matthews.

Not to mention, Matthews’ release is highly revered by teammates and opponents alike;

“I feel like his shot’s even harder (this year) and he’s making those plays that kind of blow your mind. He’s really dangerous right now.”

Kasperi Kapanen spoke fondly of his new linemate.

Former teammate and current Dallas Star, Connor Carrick, certainly realizes the minor details that make Matthews’ shot as deadly as it truly is;

“The blend in his shot is really special, his ability to change angles and be deceptive and land in one piece and let that puck go is really high-end. Then I think the fact that when he’s stick-handling in-zone, all 360 degrees around him are in play. He’ll use whatever he’s got. He’ll use the back of the wall, he’ll use his feet, he’ll put it in areas and block a guy’s stick. He’s very talented that way, and he’s able to use his range all around him. And then when you have his size, it’s hard to reach around and try to poke that puck free.”

Goalies must beware of #34 and where is at all times when they take on the blue and white.

Sustainability

Factoring in his usage on Toronto’s extremely potent and top-ranked power-play unit, Matthews is poised to break barriers and has an opportunity to shatter personal career-bests in goals, assists, and points especially. If he continues to play his cards right there’s almost no doubt he will carry over his 18.2% shooting percentage from last season, and then some.

An astounding 102-goal-pace projected over 82-games is clearly a stretch—but the deviation of goals from his rookie (40 in 82 games) and sophomore (34 in 62 games) campaigns demonstrate an increase in production, and he’s only built upon his output rate since then.

American hockey superstar Mike Modano has believed that his fellow countryman’s shot is the real deal for quite some time;

“Matthews’ ability to cross over, keep his legs pumping kind of like Alex Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby, guys who can snap that puck hard, they’re still skating when they shoot,”“If you go back to Joe Sakic, he was the guy who kind of evolved that snap shot. He was always moving his feet as he was shooting and those guys are the most elusive because goalies just feel like they’re skating. They’re not going to snap the puck and then all of a sudden they take a stride or a cross over and boom, they’re able to shoot the puck in the same time, and that’s where the goalies are shocked.”

The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to host the St. Louis Blues tonight at 7:00 p.m. EST inside Scotiabank Arena. Look out for Auston Matthews to continue his offensive tear amidst Tyler Bozak’s return to the city he called home for nine previous NHL seasons.

Only time will tell exactly how many goals Toronto’s franchise star will produce by the end of 2018-19.