Are The Toronto Maple Leafs Stanley Cup Contenders?

After a big off-season, Vegas oddsmakers are betting on the Toronto Maple Leafs.

However, are the Toronto Maple Leafs really Stanley Cup Contenders?

For Leafs Nation it’s hard to imagine the idea of the Leafs having a shot at hoisting the Stanley cup could actually become a reality in 8 months.

Just three short years ago, one of the league’s most historic franchise, hit an all-time low. The Leafs won a league-low 29 games, finishing last, earning the right to draft Auston Matthews with the first overall pick. Since that fateful day, the Leafs have continued to improve, making the playoffs in two straight seasons.

Now, heading into the 2018-2019 NHL season, there is no doubt that expectations are high in Toronto. The club’s core of young offensively gifted forwards have another year of experience under their belts, Frederik Anderson has proved he is one of the best netminders in the league, and the club signed John Tavares to a massive contract. 

With that being said, should Leafs Nation start planning the parade route, or will Torontonians have to wait yet another year to celebrate?

In my opinion, I think the Leafs will have success this season, but I don’t expect them to be close to hoisting Lord Stanley Cup in June for two main reasons.

All Finish, No Defence

Upfront, the Toronto Maple Leafs are a strong as anybody in the NHL.

Over the last two seasons, the club has finished second in goals for with 520, third in goals per game and second in power play percentage. With the addition of John Tavares, a four-time 30 plus goal scorer, it’s quite possible that the Maple Leafs will crack the 300 goal marker. If this feat is accomplished, there is no doubt the Leafs will find success.

By adding the veteran Centerman to a lineup that already includes Matthews and Nazem Kadri, Toronto is certainly stacked down the middle. When playoff hockey roles around and matchups become even more important, this depth will certainly pay off especially after the first round. Quite frankly, the only team in the NHL that could potentially match up with the Leafs three is Pittsburg, and that would mean Derick Brassard would need to replicate his production from 2015-2016.

Although Toronto will be a formidable force up front, defensively speaking the Leafs blueline is questionable at best.

Yes, Morgan Rielly is a great NHL defenseman, but together Morgan Rielly and Ron Hainsey do not equal a great first pairing. In over one thousand minutes of 5 on 5 action together last season, the pair had a Goals For percentage (GF%) of 50%, and an On-Ice Shooting percentage of 8.26%. When comparing their numbers to the top pairing of last season’s top eight teams, the numbers do not stack up well.

As a unit, the Leafs gave up the fourth most shots per game by allowing 33.9 shots and increased to 35 in the Post Season. Although the Leafs can score, they won’t be able to produce enough to overcome their mediocre blueline.

Tale of Two Andersons

Over the last two seasons while wearing the Blue and White Frederik Anderson has proven he is an elite netminder. In 2016-2017, his first with Toronto, the Danish backstop recorded at .918 save percentage and did so again last year after playing 66 games for the second consecutive season.

While Anderson has had strong regular seasons with the Maple Leaf on his chest, he was not very sharp last postseason.  In seven games against the Bruins, he posted a 3.76 GAA and sub .900 SV% and gave up 3 goals or more 5 times.  Until Anderson shows that he can carry his strong regular season play into the playoffs, I don’t consider the Toronto Maple Leafs Contenders.

Final Thoughts

Although expectations are high in Toronto and the optimism of Leafs fans isn’t going anywhere soon, especially with the success the club has had this preseason, I don’t see them contending.

There’s an old saying the defence wins championships, and it definitely runs true in the NHL. Since the 2010-2011 season, only one of the Stanley Cup Champions, The 2014-2015 Chicago Blackhawks, finished outside of the top four in playoffs Goals allowed per game. Considering the Leafs are poor defensively, it’s likely that they will give up a lot of goals and won’t contend.

With that being said, with a few moves to shore up the Toronto Maple Leafs defence my opinions could change, especially as we now know that experience means little – thanks Vegas.

In any case, there’s no doubt the Leafs are a good team, even a great team, and maybe even one of the league’s elite teams, but I don’t think they’re quite Stanley Cup contenders this season.

The playoffs are just another beast that the Leafs aren’t quite ready to conquer yet.