The Toronto Maple Leafs enter the 2018-19 season with high expectations and key pieces to make it all work.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a lot of things to look forward to and not simply because hockey is finally close to returning.
John Tavares will make his long-awaited debut wearing the Blue and White, the offensive corps looks to wreak havoc on the NHL and some young players from the Marlies, like Andreas Johnsson, will get their shot at the big time. While these stories will grab the headlines, there are a few players that may not be on the minds of most Toronto Maple Leafs fans that will need to do well for the Leafs have success.
One of these players is Nikita Zaitsev, who is coming off a sophomore slump following a solid rookie season production-wise. He needs to be out to prove that the investment made in him in the summer of 2017 was a wise one and that he can help the team long-term.
So let’s look at why Zaitsev can be one of the Leafs X-Factors for the 2018-19 season.
His career so far
After signing with the Leafs with a one-year contract during the summer of 2016, according to Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, Zaitsev went on to have a solid rookie season all across the board.
He recorded 36 points, 11 assists on the power play, a 49.38% Corsi-for (5v5) and averaged the most ice-time of any rookie player according to NHL.com. Following his impressive rookie season, the Leafs rewarded him with a 7-year, $4.5 million dollar contract as per Cap Friendly.
In his second season as a Leaf, Zaitsev vastly underperformed and the stats clearly show this. He only registered 13 points, a 47.44% CF, and only appeared in 60 games due to injury (broken foot). His slump is further highlighted by this Player Traits chart and this GAR chart comparing the two seasons.
It’s worth mentioning his usage completely changed last season as his defensive zone starts % jumped up to 61.6 last year (52.3 in 2016-17) and his TOI while shorthanded increased to 176.7 (141.7 in 2016-17).
Mike Babcock altered Zaitsev’s usage dramatically and that, combined with his injury, may have been the cause of his down year. While it appears the early returns suggest his extension was ill-advised, that idea is a tad premature.
There are signs of rebounding
The Toronto Maple Leafs defence as a whole isn’t the greatest and there have been many fans clamouring for a big trade to massively upgrade the back-end.
Before doing that, it would be best for the Leafs to find out what they have in Zaitsev. His first year in the league was definitely good enough that he shouldn’t be written off after one sub-par season.
It all comes down to Zaitsev remaining confident in his abilities to recapture that rookie season form, and even he admitted this. Here’s what he told Kristen Shilton of TSN:
"“[You’re] not confident in yourself,” Zaitsev said on Saturday, reflecting on his return during Toronto’s training camp session at Gale Centre Arena. “Missing six weeks, it was [really hard]. It’s not an excuse, though. I started the season really good and I was confident in every minute what I did on the ice. After [getting hurt] I just couldn’t keep myself on the same level.”"
This sounds like he was never able to stay on track after missing a month and a half of action due to injury. Our very own Hunter Eitel mentioned that Zaitsev did play well prior to his injury so it’s entirely possible he could have had a stronger season if healthy.
Conclusion
So why is Zaitsev considered an X-Factor? It’s simple really: if he can be a solid addition to the team, then the Leafs defense is light-years ahead of what people currently think.
He had a strong rookie season but experienced a sophomore slump possibly due to an injury. Some underlying stats suggest he played well and showed signs of improvement later in the year.
Entering the pre-season, he appears to be in a better state of mind and ready to put the previous season behind him. It will come down to staying confident even if faced with any setback, like an injury.
If Zaitsev rebounds nicely, then the Toronto Maple Leafs will be a much stronger team defensively. Otherwise, expect a trade to upgrade the back-end and more questions about why he was given such a large contract.
Thanks for reading!
All stats unless otherwise noted are from Hockey-Reference.com.