Connor Carrick is a strong candidate to be this season’s breakout performer for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Since joining the Toronto Maple Leafs via trade during the 2015-16 season, Connor Carrick has been restricted to a marginal role on the team’s blue line. To the chagrin of many Leafs fans, Carrick played in only 47 games this past season, often sitting out in favour of Roman Polak.
However, a variety of factors suggest that Carrick has room for development this season.
The departure of Roman Polak this offseason leaves a vacancy on the Leafs 3rd defensive pair. Carrick appears to be the leading candidate to fill this position, which would give him more playing time than last season. Potential suitors such as Justin Holl, Igor Ozhiganov and Andreas Borgman may challenge for the same roster spot in training camp, but Carrick’s experience and performance have likely earned him a full-time spot this season.
Carrick’s performance in the AHL has shown flashes of brilliant offensive potential that has yet to come to fruition at the NHL level. Along with 75 points in 138 career regular season games, Carrick’s performance in the 2016 Calder Cup playoffs was exceptional.
In those playoffs, Carrick led all skaters in points as a defenceman on a team that did not play in the final round. To put that feat in perspective, no defenceman in the NHL’s 100-year history has ever led the Stanley Cup playoffs in points without playing in the final round.
Upon coming to the NHL, young defencemen are often taught defensive responsibility first and take longer to expand offensively than their forward counterparts. Victor Hedman didn’t score more than 26 points in a season until his 5th year in the NHL.
Brent Burns’ greatest offensive years didn’t begin until his early 30s. Niklas Kronwall, perhaps the most telling parallel, didn’t earn a full-time position with Mike Babcock’s Detroit Red Wings until he was 25 years old.
As these examples show, Carrick’s career trajectory is not uncommon for young, offensively gifted defencemen and his window for development is still open. Last year Babcock said the following about Carrick:
"“What’s the difference if your career takes off a few years later, as long as you get the same length? I think (Carrick) is doing a really good job.” – (Terry Koshan, 2018)"
Carrick is clearly being encouraged by the Leafs coaching staff to view last season as part of a larger plan.
In the past, Carrick has been deployed in low-risk situations and has struggled to gain Babcock’s trust defensively. Babcock’s focus on making Carrick a defensively responsible player is a challenge that Carrick passed with flying colours last season.
Comparing Carrick’s 2016-17 and 2017-18 SKATR profiles makes it clear that his defensive play has significantly improved.
Carrick’s on-ice shot attempts against/60 minutes (CA/60) and expected goals against/60 minutes (xGA/60) moved into the top 10% and top 25% respectively amongst all NHL defencemen last season.
In fact, Carrick had the lowest CA/60 of all Toronto Maple Leafs defencemen. As a team that allowed the 4th highest number of shots per game last year, the Leafs could clearly benefit from Carrick’s shot suppression.
With his improved defensive play, Carrick should be able to carve out a larger role under Mike Babcock this season, allowing his offensive talent to come to the surface.
*All stats courtesy of NHL.com, theahl.com, hockeydb.com and corsica.hockey*