Did you hear? John Tavares is a Toronto Maple Leaf! But what can we expect from Tavares in Year 1 of his Leaf tenure?
It’s quite simple really: John Tavares will lead the league in scoring and will look good doing it.
Joking aside, there is no doubt there are very high expectations on the 2009 first overall pick heading into the 2018-19 campaign. When the season begins, Tavares will be 28-years-old, meaning he’s smack dab in the middle of his playing prime.
It’s not a stretch to suggest that Tavares will remain one of the top players in the league this coming campaign. So, what can we realistically expect to see from John Tavares in Year 1 as a Leaf? Let’s take a look.
What has he done lately?
The best way to see what Tavares can accomplish this year is to look at his recent output. Judging from his stats according to Natural Stattrick, it’s clear to see he hasn’t missed a beat.
Last season saw him record 37 goals, 47 assists, and 84 points, while also maintaining a strong 52.4 Corsi-for% in all situations. Tavares also played a key role in the New York Islanders offense, having an adjusted 34 GC and recorded the 55th best PS in the league (8.8).
Additionally, Tavares has also been known to be a smart shooter with a career 57.3 SThr% (which measures the number of shots that reached the net). He also recorded the 5th most 5v5 points and 7th most goals by a center in the last two seasons.
When you compare Tavares’ numbers to a player like Sidney Crosby, this SKATR chart shows the two players are pretty close across the board. He was also noticeable among other candidates for the 2017 Selke Trophy according to Andrew Berkshire of Sportsnet.
I could go on showcasing his stats, but the point is Tavares is among one of the best players in the league and expect that to continue this year.
What is he getting into?
Back on July 1st, Mike Babcock told NHL.com he envisions Tavares being slotted onto a line with Mitch Marner and Zach Hyman. Never mind all the nicknames that line can generate (I suggest the GTA line), this combination could work for Tavares.
Last season saw Marner post career highs with 22 goals, 47 assists, and a team-leading 69 points (nice!) while also recording 27 powerplay points. He is seen as being an elite playmaker, which will be further elevated with Tavares as his centerman.
On the opposite wing, Hyman also had a career year the previous campaign recording 15 goals, 25 assists, and 40 points. Being a solid two-way player, his unrelenting puck pursuit and great underlying stats, he can fill the role that Josh Bailey had on the Islanders alongside Tavares.
Sportsnet’s Berkshire broke down all of the possible players Tavares could play with, which is a long list. Regardless of who is paired with him, Tavares should elevate their game to new heights.
As for the special teams, possible arrangements are endless. Our very own Alan Downward listed all the possible line combinations for the power play, which will no doubt be fun to watch. Good luck killing penalties against the Leafs.
What can he do in 2018-19?
Heading into his 10th NHL season, Tavares joins a centre core that already included Auston Matthews and Nazem Kadri. With the three scoring over 30 goals the last few years, the Leafs now boast one of the most feared centre depths in the league on paper.
The main reason to expect an uptick in his stats is because most teams are probably going to play their best players against Auston Matthews, meaning that for the first time in his career Tavares will see a steady diet of secondary players.
Tavares enters this coming campaign in the middle of his prime and hasn’t shown any sign of slowing down. Across the board, his numbers are comparable to those of the NHL’s elite and he is fresh off a campaign where he neared his personal bests.
If I were a betting man, I can see Tavares having slightly better numbers from last season due to having better line mates. Even if his numbers regress a bit, it won’t be from a lack of effort, but possibly from the balanced scoring the team now boasts (like the Golden State Warriors).
In short, Tavares is in for another strong season. Enjoy the show Leafs fans!
All stats unless otherwise noted are from Hockey-Reference.com.