The Toronto Maple Leafs were the NHL’s 4th worst shot-suppression team last season.
If the Toronto Maple Leafs want to compete this year – and there is no doubt that they do – then they’ve got to improve on their biggest weakness: shots allowed.
The blue-line obviously needs an upgraded, but the other place people don’t talk about as much is on forward. The Leafs are stacked offensively, but defensively, not so much. Defense is a team-wide concept and having capable defensive forwards is important.
The Leafs forwards are speedy, talented, and in some cases gritty. But what they do not have is an upper echelon defensive player. Having one is essential to being one of the best teams in hockey. Do you think it’s a coincidence that eight of the last ten Stanley Cup Finals featured either Anze Kopitar, Patrice Bergeron or Marian Hossa? Three of the best defensive players in the NHL?
All due respect to Nazem Kadri, but he’s not a defensive specialist. He may have been used in a shot-down role, but he’s not a very good shut-down player. He took his role and did what he could, but no one is mixing him up with Mikko Kouivo anytime soon.
This being Toronto, some people actually do think he’s a good defensive centre, but he really isn’t. He’s a great player, but almost all of that is offense.
TRADE
My proposed trade is as follows:
The reason the Leafs would make this trade is to acquire an elite defensive player in Nino Niederreiter. They would do so because that is their biggest current weakness on their roster, and with this trade they’d be dealing from a position of strength.
First of all, with Tavares and Matthews as his 1-2 centres, Babcock isn’t going to cut into their ice-time to try and get a ‘shut-down’ line out against other team’s best lines for the Leafs 41 home games. Tavares and Matthews will dominate most other team’s top lines, so this isn’t going to be an issue. Therefore, what the Leafs should want is to have at least one excellent defensive winger to pair with one of their star centres.
Secondly, Kadri, while an excellent player, can be instantly replaced by movind William Nylander into his natural centre position. This not only allows the Leafs to deal strength for weakness, but extending Nylander long-term as a centre is a much better investment than doing so as a winger.
The Wild may be interested in this trade because while they are deep on the wing, their two top centres – Eric Staal and Koivu – are on the wrong side of 30.
Further Analysis
Kadri will be turning 28 this year, and he is signed for four more seasons (including the one about to start) at the bargain price of $4.5 million per.
Niederreiter will be turning 26 this year, and is signed for four more seasons (including the one about to start) at the bargain price of $5.25 million per.
Essentially the Leafs would be trading one of the best contracts in the NHL for another of the best contracts in the NHL. They would be gaining two years of youth, while the Wild would be getting a centre.
The Leafs give up a slightly better offensive player (Kadri’s career high is 32 goals and 61 points, while Nino’s is 25 goals and 57 points) and end up with the NHL’s premier defensive forward.
Since William Nylander is a center and should be playing centre anyways, the team can afford to move Kadri. Yes, it hurts to lose a home-grown home-town player who has become a fan favorite, but if you’re acquiring the exact thing your team is missing, you’ve got to make the hard calls.
I think this is the trade that the Toronto Maple Leafs should make.
Chart from Ryan Stimson
Cap info from Capfriendly.com