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Toronto Maple Leafs: William Nylander Contract Projection

By Jarrett Noakes

TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 2: William Nylander #29 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates against Nikita Kucherov #86 of the Tampa Bay Lightning during the first period at the Air Canada Centre on January 2, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)
TORONTO, ON - JANUARY 2: William Nylander #29 of the Toronto Maple Leafs skates against Nikita Kucherov #86 of the Tampa Bay Lightning during the first period at the Air Canada Centre on January 2, 2018 in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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How much should the Toronto Maple Leafs pay William Nylander?

Remaining without a contract for the 2018-19 season, negotiations between William Nylander and the Toronto Maple Leafs have stretched later into the summer than many expected.

While Kyle Dubas and company have preached patience throughout the process, the two sides have clearly yet to come to an agreement that is satisfactory for all involved.

A look at Nylander’s stats makes it clear that he is a budding young star with a bright future in the NHL:

  • Age: 22
  • Position: Wing
  • Career Games Played: 185
  • Career Points: 135 (0.73 points per game)
  • Career Goals: 48 (0.26 goals per game)

As a proven performer, Nylander will be expecting a hefty pay raise from his entry-level contract. On the other hand, Toronto Maple Leafs management is under heavy pressure to sign “the big three” (Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander) to their second contracts while leaving enough room under the salary cap to build a championship team.

As in most negotiations, contracts signed by comparable players in the league serve as a measuring stick to establish a player’s value. Here’s a list of the three most closely comparable contract situations to Nylander in recent years:

  • David Pastrnak – 6 years/$40M ($6.67M/year) in 2017
    • Age: 21
    • Position: Wing
    • Career Games Played: 172
    • Career Points: 123 (0.72 points per game)
    • Career Goals:  59 (0.34 goals per game)
  • Nikolaj Ehlers – 7 years/$42M ($6M/year) in 2017
    • Age: 21
    • Position: Wing
    • Career Games Played: 154
    • Career Points: 102 (0.66 points per game)
    • Career Goals: 40 (0.26 goals per game)
  • Filip Forsberg – 6 years/$36M ($6M/year) in 2016
    • Age: 21
    • Position: Wing
    • Career Games Played: 182
    • Career Points: 133 (0.73 points per game)
    • Career Goals: 60 (0.33 goals per game)

*All statistics above are from prior to the contract signing date*

Based on these comparables, it would be reasonable to expect a contract in the range of $6-7M/year over 6 or 7 years for Nylander.

Some important things to consider are that the league’s growing salary cap, Nylander’s personal thoughts about being a Toronto Maple Leaf, the team’s cap situation, and the team’s financial flexibility could all be factors that affect the final salary and term that Nylander receives.

Management will also likely point to the statistical inflation that William Nylander benefited from last year, as league scoring rose to the highest levels in over a decade. In fact, in their contract years, the three comparables in the list above were ranked substantially higher in league scoring than Nylander. Pastrnak, Forsberg, and Ehlers finished 18th, 25th, and 31st respectively, while Nylander ranked 70th.

The rising cap and natural inflation of contract values over time will help raise Nylander’s salary from the comparables of previous years. However, his contract year statistics show that he wasn’t able to elevate his game to the extent of the comparables mentioned, which slightly decreases his value.

With all factors considered, a sound prediction for Nylander’s contract would be 6 years/$37.5M ($6.25M/year).

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All stats collected from NHL.com and capfriendly.com

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