The Toronto Maple Leafs will have the ability to protect roughly 9 to11 players if Seattle is granted an expansion team and has an expansion draft.
If the NHL keeps the same rules for the expansion draft that they used last season, the Toronto Maple Leafs will have the option to keep seven forwards, three defensemen and one goaltender or eight skaters and one goaltender.
In addition, any player that has a no-movement clause must be protected. Also, any player that has played in two or less NHL seasons are excluded from the draft.
Based on the rules listed above, I came up with the list of Toronto Maple Leafs that I would protect if I were in Kyle Dubas and Brendan Shanahan’s shoes.
In terms of forwards, I would keep John Tavares, Nazem Kadri, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Andreas Johnsson and Kasperi Kapanen. Tavares will be the only Toronto Maple Leafs forward on July 1, 2020, that will have a no-movement clause. So, he must be kept, but this shouldn’t be up for debate.
If Tavares lacked a no-movement clause, you would still keep him. He’d be the first forward that I’d write down.
Aside from Tavares, there is no way that the Toronto Maple Leafs wouldn’t protect Matthews, Marner and Nylander. Kyle Dubas has said that the three all-star forwards aren’t going anywhere and will be staying in Toronto.
Unless one of them struggles consistently over the next few years, you’d have to put them down on the protected list. As I’m typing this paragraph, I’m also knocking on my desk to ensure that none of them struggle.
For the last three forwards, I prefer keeping Kadri, Johnsson and Kapanen over other forwards like Connor Brown and Zach Hyman. Kapanen, Johnsson and Kadri all put up a higher Goals/60 last season than Brown and Hyman.
In fact, the difference between Kapanen, who put up the lowest Goals/60 of the trio and Hyman, who has the highest Goals/60 between himself and Brown was roughly .23 Goals/60.
While the Toronto Maple Leafs are truly better with Hyman and Brown in the lineup, Dubas can replace them via free agency, trade or the draft.
Defensemen & Goaltender
Let’s jump to defensemen and goaltender.
There is no doubt that the Toronto Maple Leafs won’t protect Morgan Rielly. Last season, Rielly was nothing but exceptional. In 76 games played, he registered 6 goals, 46 assists, 25 power-play points and a 51.6 Corsi-for percentage (CF%).
If you compare his 2017-18 numbers to his 2016-17, you’ll notice a massive increase in his production. With Rielly still in his prime, it’d be an absolute mistake not to protect him.
The next defenseman that I would keep is Travis Dermott. Dermott just finished his first season in the NHL and his contract will expire at the end of the 2019-20 season. Since his ELC will expire before the expansion draft, the Maple Leafs will need to protect him.
While he didn’t play a full season last year, he was exceptional in 37 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He finished the season with 1 goal, 12 assists and a 55.0 CF%. After last season, you’d have to imagine that his role with the Maple Leafs is only going to expand and he’ll end up playing more minutes per night.
With Dermott’s bright future, it would be a mistake not to protect him. If he’s not on the protection list, you’d have to figure that the Seattle front office will be jumping all over him come draft time.
The last defenseman that I would protect is Jake Gardiner. While Gardiner is a UFA on July 1, 2019, you’d have to imagine that he’ll be re-signed. His performance last year proved that the Toronto Maple Leafs need to lock him down to a long-term deal. Mike Babcock has confidence in him and has him out the ice quite frequently.
Last season, he had a 22:32 ATOI, which was the highest on the Maple Leafs. In addition, Gardiner is a point producing machine. In the past two seasons, he posted more than 40 points and had most of his success while 5v5.
All-in-all, the Maple Leafs need Gardiner long term and they need to protect him. If Gardiner is stolen in the expansion draft, Leafs Nation will be sorrow.
The last Leaf that will be protected is Frederik Andersen. Since joining the Maple Leafs, he’s been a dependable brick wall in net. Even though his GAA was high last season, he is still the best goaltender that the franchise has had since the days of Ed Belfour and Curtis Joseph. If Andersen isn’t protected and gets snatched up by Seattle, the Maple Leafs front office will have to find another elite net-minder.
I’d prefer to not have to scour the trade market for a top goalie and just protect the Danish wall.
Whose Left For The Picking?
There are a few players that will be left for the picking. The Seattle front office will likely choose between Hyman, Brown, Nikita Zaitsev, Calle Rosen, Andreas Borgman and Garret Sparks.
If Zaitsev doesn’t rebound next season and the Toronto Maple Leafs are looking to unload his contract, they could always send some draft picks to Seattle to ensure that they select Zaitsev.
If Zaitsev does rebound, Seattle might be inclined to take and the Maple Leafs wouldn’t have to fork over picks.
It’s so hard to project who exactly Seattle will select, but it is fair to say that Seattle won’t have an opportunity to steal a core member of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Instead, they’ll be grabbing a depth forward or defenseman.
For Leafs Nation, this means that Toronto Maple Leafs won’t have to unload draft picks to ensure that Seattle doesn’t steal top talent.
Stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com and hockey-reference.com
Research courtesy of capfriendly.com