Toronto Maple Leafs PTO Tragets: Tomas Jurco
Good news, friends! The Toronto Maple Leafs will indeed hold a training camp this year, opening the door for a collection of unsigned players to stop by on PTO’s.
I’m very aware this topic may not be of significant interest right now. It’s completely understandable since it’s currently August 17th and most of you would much rather be lounging on a dock instead of listening to my incoherent ramblings.
Nevertheless, I’ve spent the bulk of this summer vigorously scrubbing through the likes of CapFriendly and HockeyReference, on a quest to squeeze hidden value from the remaining UFA pool. While the pickings are noticeably slim, value is indeed present.
Such are the wrinkles of a Kyle Dubas regime.
The bespectacled GM built a reputation on his use of alternative avenues to acquire talent, including that of the Professional Tryout Offer. With some roster odds and sods still in need of attention, who could Dubas audition?
I have an idea.
Tomas Jurco
By all accounts, you likely remember Tomas Jurco from his brief stint as a real-life wizard.
You can’t tell me that’s not magic. I won’t hear it.
As it happens, that video served as a lead up to the 2011 NHL Entry Draft, which Jurco entered as a flashy, albeit flawed prospect. Originally slated to go somewhere in the late-1st round, Jurco proceeded to tumble past the 1st round entirely before falling to Detroit at 35th overall.
It was a heralded pick at the time, garnering praise for the boom capabilities of Jurco’s game which compensated for his equally large potential to bust.
To date, his career has largely resembled the former. At least at first glance.
Jurco’s career-high in games played currently stands at 63, the closest he’s ever come to a full season. That high point occurred in 2014-15, and in the years to follow, Jurco since failed to entrench himself at the NHL level. The Red Wings dealt him to the Blackhawks 18 months later.
A skilled and undervalued prospect in his mid-20’s? That’s Dubas’ music!
Puck Luck
Jurco didn’t fill box scores for either of his employers, a failure his underlying numbers suggest may not entirely be his fault.
In terms driving possession at even strength, Jurco demonstrates phenomenal capabilities in brief time as an NHLer, his career CF/60 mark a 53.4%. That’s an undoubtedly impressive output, which should likely be even higher were it not for a glaring lack of on-ice luck.
The PDO gods seemingly cursed Jurco from the moment he stepped into the league. In the equivalent of 6 seasons of service, the Czech-native has seen a 100 or above PDO only twice. And those two flashes aside, his luck caters to such depths that it begs the question;
What did Jurco ever do to deserve such rotten luck? We may never know.
The low point came during his final stint with the Red Wings in 2016-17, as an abysmal on-ice save percentage saddled him with a PDO of 89.9. To put that in perspective, 100 is considered the even point.
Of course, PDO doesn’t tell the full story. No single metric does.
In Jurco’s case, a consistently low shooting percentage has largely held him back, regardless of where he happens to play. Furthermore, after recently hitting the 200 games played mark last season, a large enough sample size has been formed to affirm his current mark as the norm.
Shooting 6.5%, like Jurco has, albeit in brief service time schedules you for a correction. Carrying that futility through 200 games with no uptick, however? Well, don’t hold your breath.
Jurco’s PDO last season mercifully reached the height of 100.7, a career best. And, wouldn’t you know it, he then produced offence to the tune of 0.34 points per game, the second highest rate of his career.
Funny how that works.
Possession
As previously mentioned, Jurco is a terrific possession player.
Excluding a dismal 43.8% CF/60 in his low point of 2016-17, his last 16 games as a member of the Red Wings, Jurco sits pretty at a 54.1%, his knack for pushing the play on full display. Not to mention, Jurco’s numbers aren’t those inflated by masking agents like quality linemates or ample PP time. Rather, he’s regularly proven to thrive in spite of his surroundings, not because of them.
With 2017-18 being Jurco’s most recent showing at the highest level, the season likely paints the clearest picture of where he currently stands, thus functioning as the most applicable sample size.
Across 29 games with the Blackhawks, Jurco spent the bulk of his minutes alongside Artem Anisimov, the pair collectively putting forth a 50.65% CF/60. It’s their splits apart, however, which tell a different story.
In his time away from Anisimov, Jurco’s CF inflated to a sparkling 54.19%, impressive production considering that he was separated from a supposedly superior linemate. Anisimov, on the other hand, experienced quite the opposite course of events in similar circumstances, his CF dipping to an abysmal 39.83% (!).
Suddenly, the line’s driving force is revealed.
The natural train of thought, in this case, is to assume Jurco benefits from sheltered usage. An assumption that is, once again, not the case. Per HockeyReference, last season saw Jurco begin just 44.1% of his shifts in the offensive zone, still managing to produce the entirety of his offence at even strength.
This nonetheless accomplished despite hitting the ice roughly 200 feet from the opposing net.
Where Does He Fit?
Jurco is exclusively a winger, a position in which the Leafs possess organizational surplus. It’s not immediately obvious where he’d fit in the lineup, with injuries being the only logical way to manufacture an opening.
Only, that’s the beauty of a PTO. A defined opening isn’t needed.
The “T” in PTO stands for “tryout”, which fails to guarantee that the player in question will even make the team in the first place. These are offers intended to be utilized as dart throws, mere shots in the dark handed to players who GM’s suspect might surprise them.
Jurco is far from a certain product, and his performance at training camp, should he attend, may indeed reveal exactly why Chicago declined to qualify him.
If so, cut him loose, wash your hands, and move on. It’s that easy. If he impresses, as his numbers suggest, the Leafs find themselves with yet another talented winger at their disposal.
That, my friends, is a good problem to have.
Next. Trade Value Power Ranking. dark
Thanks for reading!
Stats courtesy of Hockeyreference.com & Naturalstattrick.com