Toronto Maple Leafs: The Case for Signing Rick Nash

Should the Toronto Maple Leafs take a stab at Rick Nash?

Before you even say it, I know. I’m disappointed in myself too. Debating over a hypothetical Rick Nash homecoming is some perilously low hanging fruit. But c’mon, it’s the middle of the summer. Cut me some slack.

The guy has been linked to the Leafs since, and this is true, the dawn of time, even despite Nash himself repeatedly denying having any interest of donning the blue and white.

Only, we live in a different age now.

As the Leafs steadily improved their on-ice product, Nash’s reluctance off it lessened, culminating this year in him including Toronto among his preferred trade deadline destinations. Not too surprising, as Auston Matthews tends to have the effect on people.

Yet here we are, approaching the halfway point of August while Nash continues treading water in the free agent pool. A decision, mind you, of his own choosing.

According to multiple reports, the 34-year-old is still undecided as to whether he’ll return for a 14^th NHL season in 2018-19. And since Nash has reportedly sustained multiple concussions over the course of his career, the latest of which occurred as recently as this past March, few can criticize his thought process.

Much bigger things are at stake here than a simple kid’s game.

Although, use some imagination for a moment. Let’s say we all wake up tomorrow morning to news of Nash reaffirming his intent to return for another year. Should the Leafs pursue him?

That’s what I intend to find out.

Need

Before diving into the nitty-gritty of Nash’s underlying value, one simple question must be asked;

Do the Leafs need him? I’d venture yes.

In all likelihood, Mike Babcock will enter the season with a forward corps to the tune of:

Marleau – Matthews – Nylander

Hyman – Tavares – Marner

Johnsson – Kadri – Kapanen

Brown – Lindholm – Ennis

By golly that’s deep, albeit harbouring its fair share of question marks.

While the numbers certainly hint at a bounce-back year for Tyler Ennis, the reality is he’s been a consistent injury report fixture for a while now and that potential risk cannot be ignored.

If Ennis goes down again who takes his place? Josh Leivo? Be realistic.

And what of Par Lindholm? It’s somewhat troubling to see how few strides Leafs management have taken to arm themselves with a backup plan on the off chance Lindholm doesn’t pan out. Again, numbers suggest the Swede’s North American transition will be a relatively gentle one, but I’d argue we’ve seen this movie before.

Remember Petri Kontiola? No, you don’t.

If Lindholm busts, Toronto’s lack of suitable depth centres outside of their top-3 forces a winger into the middle, the likely candidates being either Patrick Marleau or William Nylander. A hole on the wing is now open. Who do you expect to fill it? Leivo? You promised you’d be realistic!

It’s not as if the Leafs are in desperate need of Nash at the moment either, rather there are a number of plausible scenarios that could easily occur and change that sentiment very quickly.

Furthermore, Nash is unlikely to command a longer term than one year if/when he signs another NHL deal. This is great. If you’re lucky enough to be blessed with the window of cap flexibility the Leafs have, as limited as it may be, you might as well use it.

Value

Let’s just get this out of the way right off the hop; Nash is far from the player he once was.

That’s been the case for a while now.

The past few years have seen Nash’s point totals go from hovering around the 40-60-point range and dip down into the mid-to-high 30’s, where he’s plateaued since. Nevertheless, the former first overall pick has managed to pot at least 20 goals in every season from 2003 to the present day but one, his 15-goal output in 2015-16 the lone hiccup.

That’s remarkable consistency in today’s NHL. Yes, Nash is unquestionably in decline, but he’s at least preserved his nose for the net in spite of constant bouts with injury.

In a surprising twist, despite finishing with only 34 points in 2017-18, the fewest total of his career, Nash underwent a possession renaissance last season. The 51.2% CF/60 he put up in 71 games at 5v5 was his best output in that metric in nearly 4 years, accompanied by a stellar corsi rel% of 4.4.

Not to mention, playing with Nash left only a positive impact on his teammates.

Mats Zuccarello happens to have logged the most time alongside Nash last season, 343 minutes and 7 seconds to be exact, and the pair collectively put forth a CF/60 of 51.87%.

That’s, as the kids say, pretty good. (I might be out of touch on what the kids say)

In Zuccarello’s 390 minutes sans Nash, however, that number dips to a 43.74%, with Nash keeping his afloat at 47.07%. This isn’t an isolated incident either. Of the 6 forwards Nash lined up frequently with throughout 2017-18, 4 posted lower possession numbers in time played without him.

There’s value to be had here.

On the other hand, beginning 58.8% of his shifts in the offensive zone certainly inflated those numbers to a degree. Although, that’s the beauty of joining these current Leafs. Their top-9 forward group is now deep enough to allow Babcock the advantage of sheltering certain players without real consequence.

Let’s say, for argument’s sake, Nash slots in on the 3^rd line. Babcock can then just as easily hand the difficult matchups over to one of the Tavares or Matthews units (still crazy to type that) while simultaneously force-feeding Nash favourable zone starts.

And if he sought to impress his new coach even further, Nash could additionally cameo on the penalty kill when needed, considering he averaged roughly a minute and a half per game of shorthanded ice time as recently as April.

Signing John Tavares did more than simply hand the Leafs one of the NHL’s best centres. It gave them options.

“65% Offensive Zone Starts for Third Line Winger Rick Nash” is an enticing one.

Thanks for reading!

Stats courtesy of hockeyreference.com & naturalstattrick.com

Ice time data courtesy of TSN.com