Toronto Maple Leafs: Predicting the Three Big Contracts

The Toronto Maple Leafs are set to move the dial from rebuilder to contender.

The addition of John Tavares gives the Toronto Maple Leafs the best 1-2 centre combination in the NHL, but before the team can make moves to supplement their roster, they’ve got to sign their three young stars in order to get some form of cost certainty.

I guess they don’t technically have to sign them first, but you can make better decisions if you have more information, and in this case, that means knowing that Nylander, Marner and Matthews cost beyond this season.

Since it’s the summer, and we’re patiently waiting for this news, I thought I’d try my hand at guessing what each player will make.

Auston Matthews

Connor McDavid signed one year before it was strictly necessary, and his new $12.5 million dollar annual cap hit is the standard to which Matthews will be measured.  Like McDavid, I expect Matthews to sign this off-season rather than next.

Jack Eichel makes $10 and Matthews is much closer to McDavid than he is to Eichel.

I predict that in order to get the max deal, the Toronto Maple Leafs are going to have to account for the nearly $5 million the cap went up this season, as well as the fact that future expansion means it will probably continue to rise.

It will still be hard to ask to match McDavid, so I predict Matthews signs a eight year deal that has a $12.25  million dollar cap hit.

WillIam Nylander and Mitch Marner

Marner is the hometown Canadian kid, and that is why fans rate him higher, but Nylander puts up similar if not better 5v5 numbers while also potentially being a centre.  One problem I see with the Marner deal is that if the Leafs go the full eight years with him, they have the problem of he and Matthews expiring at the same time.

For that reason, and for their  similar skills and potentials, I predict that they will both sign the same seven year contract.  Unfortunately, I think that Leafs fans are in denial about how much its going to cost.

Pasternak is a good comparable, and he’s signed for $6.6 for six year, a contract he signed one year ago.  Adding inflation, a rising cap,  and the extra year on the deal, I think you’ll see the Leafs have to reach for $8 to lock up Nyander and Marner.

The beauty of twin seven year deals is that with Matthews signing for eight years, the Leafs will stagger each contract to expire in a different year.  Nylander’s deal will start now and expire in 2024-25, Marner’s contract will start next season and run until 2025-26, while Matthews’ will expire one year after that.

This gives the Leafs staggered expiry dates, long term cost certainty, and the entire primes of three potential hall of fame players.

To recap, I predict:

Matthews 8 years $12.25 million  AAV

Nylander 7 Years $8 million AAV

Marner7 Years $8 million AAV

I hope I’m wrong and it’s a bit cheaper, but we’ll see how it goes.