Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews and the Rocket Richard Trophy

If Auston Matthews can stay healthy for the Toronto Maple Leafs, there is no reason to believe he won’t  win the Rocket Richard Trophy.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a deep and well documented  history as one of the most prized franchises in the NHL, but throughout their 100 years of existence they have never been able to draft, develop, and roster a Rocket Richard Trophy winner. (i.e Lead the NHL in goals).

Matthews scored 40 goals as a rookie in 2016/2017, and finished four goals behind Sidney Crosby. By doing so, the 2016 first overall pick gave Toronto Maple Leafs fans a glimmer of hope that someday he may very well be the first player in Leafs history to claim the trophy.

Matthews’ sophomore season did not go exactly as planned. Despite a fantastic start, Matthews would go on to sustain three separate injuries resulting in a total of 20 missed games. Despite missing a significant chunk of the season, Matthews still managed to score 34 goals and 63 points in 62 games.

Matthews led the NHL in 5v5 goals as a rookie, and was four off the pace last season, despite playing 20 less games than every player ahead of him.  As such, it stands to reason that the only thing preventing Matthews from winning the Richard already has been a lack of power-play opportunity.

The graph below shows Matthews’ goal production in his first 2 NHL seasons.

Had Matthews played a full 82 game season, his projection totals put him at roughly 45 goals and 39 assists for 83 total points.

Consistency Is Key

Looking at the previous five Rocket Richard Trophy winners, it is no shock to see Alexander Ovechkin’s name all over it. During Ovechkin’s 13-year career in the NHL, he has won the Rocket Richard trophy seven times.

The most consistent part about Ovechkin’s seven Rocket Richard Trophy wins was his ability to score 50 goals or more in five of the seven seasons. If you want to win the Rocket Richard Trophy, a good reference of what is expected by Ovechkin’s standards is 50 goals.

In his first two NHL seasons, Auston Matthews has already established himself as an elite even-strength goal scorer. During this two year time span, only Matthews and McDavid have put up a total of 61 even-strength goals.

When looking at Matthews’ goal totals, his production at even-strength is as potent as it gets. Scoring 29 even-strength goals in 62 games during the 2017/2018 season, Matthews was on pace to break his rookie record of 32 even strength goals in 2016/2017.

Breaking Through On The Powerplay

The biggest question mark surrounding Matthews’ chance to claim the Rocket Richard Trophy is how well he will be able to produce on the power-play. Matthews scored just five power-play goals last season, and eight his rookie year. These are abnormally low goal totals from such a dynamic offensive talent, who to seems to dominate the 5v5 game.

Comparing Ovechkin’s power-play totals to Matthews’, Ovi put up 17 goals each of the last two seasons on the power-play. This is where Ovechkin pulls ahead seemingly each and every year to claim the Rocket Richard Trophy.

If Matthews wants to have a chance to claim the Rocket Richard Trophy, he needs to stay healthy and become a threat on the power-play. With the loss of JVR and Tyler Bozak, we could see Auston Matthews’ power-play minutes rise substantially. After adding John Tavares to strengthen the Maple Leafs center core, Matthews could find himself playing full two minute power-play shifts at times.

Taking Advantage Of The Situation

With an average of 30.5 even strength goals a season, it is fair to predict a healthy Matthews scoring 35 even strength goals next season with ease. If Matthews can gain whatever magic the Tyler Bozak power-play unit had last season, it isn’t out of the question he can pot another 10-15 more goals.

As Auston Matthews progresses, his goal scoring at even strength will only get better. With the loss of key power-play players, if Matthews is able to cash in on the valuable minutes he is bound to receive this upcoming season, he may just hit 50 goals and bid to be the first Toronto Maple Leafs player to win the Rocket Richard Trophy.

Statistics provided by: hockey reference, quant hockey