Toronto Maple Leafs: Is Renting Erik Karlsson the Plan?

The Toronto Maple Leafs could potentially add Erik Karlsson.

The Ottawa Senators are likely going to move the pending unrestricted free-agent, and unless there is a last minute deal that no longer seems possible, it’s just a matter of when.  If the potentially best defenseman in the NHL is available, it makes sense that the Toronto Maple Leafs would be interested.  Karlsson is a right handed defenseman, the exact thing the Leafs are looking for.

The Leafs have one of the best rosters in the NHL, they’ve got a near perfect mixture of players in their primes and young players approaching their peaks.  Also, they’ve got some cap space and depth in the AHL, and most positions in the NHL.  They have the opportunity, the means and the motive to compete this year.  A rental player is a logical step and Karlsson is the logical choice.

If you asked me two months ago if Karlsson would be wearing a Toronto Maple Leafs sweater, I would have called you crazy. Yet, the tides have turned. I thought that Karlsson would have been dealt right around the NHL Draft. After he wasn’t dealt around the draft, I thought for sure that he’d be dealt around July 1st. Well, I was wrong.

Just Imagine Karlsson In Toronto

I urge my readers to take a minute and imagine Karlsson throwing on a blue and white sweater.

With Karlsson on the Toronto Maple Leafs roster, the Leafs would arguably have the best team in the NHL. Yes, the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Nashville Predators and the Winnipeg Jets would be very close, but the Maple Leafs would be by far the superior team.

In what a supposedly down year for Karlsson, one where he missed training camp and 11 games, , he still registered 9 goals, 53 assists, 18 power-play points,  and played 26:44 minutes per night. Karlsson had a 51.4 CF%, which doesn’t sound that great until you realize that he was +6% relative Corsi to his team.  He was second in the NHL in 5v5 scoring by a defenseman, missing the title by one point and playing 11 less games than John Klingberg.  If he played all 82 games he would have led all defenseman in total points and 5v5 points.

You’d have to imagine, if the Toronto Maple Leafs were to add Karlsson that his scoring and assists would jump through the roof of the Scotiabank Arena. The Leafs are already the Vegas favorites to win the Cup, and in trading for Karlsson, they’d be even better.

The cost to do this trade might be prohibitive. The Penguins once gave their top prospect and a first round pick for two months of Marian Hossa.  A full year of Karlsson isn’t going to come cheap, and the cost isn’t likely to decline much between now and March.  Whoever gets him gets one of the NHL’s best players, a player who would make the Hall of Fame if he retired today, and a player who is the best player at the most scarce position in the league (right-handed defenseman).

Are the Leafs prepared to pay such a cost? What would the cost even be?

As for trading him to a division rival, the Senators can’t afford to be arbitrarily petty.  They need the best package regardless of where it comes from.  You can’t rule the Leafs out just because they are provincial rivals.

If Dubas were to add Karlsson as a rental, the Toronto Maple Leafs would be in the driver’s seat to win their first Stanley Cup Championship since 1967.

stats from NHL.com, hockey-reference.com and naturalstattrick.com