The Past Is Irrelevant: Toronto Maple Leafs Will Trade Futures

The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to be making some trades this year.

This is an inevitability.  Teams with something close to the best roster in the NHL, who have cap space trade futures for the present.  That is how it works.  Always has, always will.  The Toronto Maple Leafs are no different.

If you suggest as much, people get mad.  Of the many, many things that I write, none are so vehemently opposed as when I suggest that the Leafs should trade the future to win now. People respond by saying that the Leafs management of the past did that, that the new management has learned from their mistakes and that their philosophy is different.

It’s not.

It’s OK to Trade the Future

The problem of the Leafs past wasn’t that they traded picks and prospects for the present, it was that they did it at the wrong time.  Brad Boyes scored 40 goals and had a great career, but trading him for Owen Nolan on the verge of a potential Stanley Cup Run was the right move.  Sure, the Leafs lost in the first round to the Flyers, but the Cup ultimately went to a seventh seed, so they were right to take a shot.

Other times….not so much.  Scott Niedermeyer, Eric Lindros, Robert Luongo, Tukka Rask, Tyler Seguin, Dougie Hamilton……..the list of hall of fame players the Leafs lost out on because they were impatient is enough to make you  sick.

But the problem with all those trades was they were made at the wrong time for the wrong reasons.  Better to compare the Leafs with contemporary contenders rather than 25 year old teams that have nothing in common other than they wore the same uniform.

The 2008 Penguins traded a first rounder, their top prospect (Angelo Esposito, a much hyped prospect who fell in his draft year) and two other top prospects for two months of Marian Hossa.

They lost in the Final that year.

That didn’t hurt them though, they came back the next year and won the Cup.  Then they won two more.   Even though they traded their first round pick and top prospect for a rental.

Toronto Maple Leafs and the Pittsburgh Penguins

That comparison is 100% more apt than comparing this Leafs team to the Burke team that traded away Seguin and Hamilton.  The Salary Cap was new then and the Leafs didn’t know how to negotiate it, plus Burke is legendary for his impatience.

In 2013, the Penguins traded two prospects and their first rounder for Jerome Iginla. They didn’t win, but it was OK to mortgage a little of the future and what do you know, they won another two Cups a little later on.

The Penguins aren’t the only example though: Since 2009, the Kings have only picked in the first round twice.  They have two Cups.

The Penguins also traded two of their firsts to the Leafs (Kapanen was already drafted) for Phil Kessel before winning back to back Cups.

In the last 12 drafts, the Penguins have either traded their first, or traded the player they drafted with their first before he played for them eight times.  They have gone to four Stanley Cup Finals and won three times during that period. 

4 Times!

So what this means is that the Toronto Maple Leafs have a nice precedent to follow. In a Cap League, you need to have as many elite players as possible, and then try to fill out the rest of your roster the best you can.  You also need to strike while the iron is hot.  The Penguins know this and once they locked their core of Fleury, Staal, Malkin, Letang and Crosby into place, they weren’t afraid to go for it.  And, they even made adjustments along the way, moving out Fleury and Staal.

The Leafs have Matthews, Tavares, Nylander, Marner, Rielly and Andersen.  That’s the core.  If they lock everyone up long term, as expected, then you can expect them to get creative.  Who knows what they will do – other than, they will do something.,

One thing is certain: fans need to be open minded about the possibilities.  Timothy Liljegren, Travis Dermott, first round picks etc.  They could all be in play.  They might not be.  You can’t be sure.  But with the core of the team, their current status in the league (i.e one of the best teams) the fact that they’ve got a few young players approaching their peaks, and very serviceable group of in-their-prime veterans (most of whom happen to be on extremely team-friendly deals) there is no time like the present to go for it.

If the Leafs traded Liljegren and a first and a couple of B prospects to the Jackets for Artemi Panarin, that would be similar to what the Penguins did when they acquired Hossa.  If they do that, or something similar, it does not cripple their abilities to compete in the future.  They’ll still have a core of Matthews-Tavares-Marner-Nylander-Rielly and Andersen.

This team isn’t operating like the Leafs teams of the past.  Their model is the Pittsburgh Penguins and the hope is that they can win as many Cups.  The fact is: the Penguins consistently mortgaged their future to win “now.”

You can expect the Toronto Maple Leafs to do the same.