The Toronto Maple Leafs Patrick Marleau is almost certainly going to be a Hall of Fame player.
The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Marleau last summer to a three year deal with a $6.25 cap hit. Marleau is going to be 39 before the season starts, so it’s worth asking whether he’s still any good or whether his cap hit could be redistributed to make the Leafs better.
Last season Marleau put up 27 goals and 47 points. If nothing else, he’s remarkably consistent as the year before that, he had 27 goals and 46 points. The year before that, 25 goals and 48 points.
Now, 27 goals is pretty good. However, given his ice-time and line-mates, is it good enough? Let’s check out some stats and find out.
Marleau Stats
Last year, Marleau played 13:42 per game. (5v5). That is fifth among Leafs forwards. He had 30 5v5 points, however, which made him 9th on the team overall (tied with JVR and Bozak, but Marleau played more games).
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Marleau was a negative possession player, 49%CF, and -1% relative to his team. Despite the 27 goals, the Leafs were outplayed when Marleau was on the ice, and they did worse when he was out than when he wasn’t.
Marleau posted an alarming shots/against 60 of 33.76 SA/60. In total the Leafs only get 48% of the shots when he’s on the ice.
His points/60 is 177th best among forwards in the NHL who played 500 minutes last season. That’s OK second line production, but it doesn’t make up for the obviously bad defense.
If we look at Ryan Stimson’s Player Performance Chart, we see that Marleau rates a 51/100 at defense, and compares unfavorably overall to Connor Brown.
If we look at Goals Above Replacement, courtesy of corsica.hockey we see that Marleau was tenth on the Leafs last season worth 2.61 GAR.
For context, that is 186th among forwards in the NHL. IF every team has six top six forwards, that means Marleau was worth the least among all qualified top six forwards (31 x 6 = 186). Marleau was worth about the same GAR as Anthony Duclair, who was cut and could have been have for free.
Conclusion
So even though his overall totals are nice, a third of his points game on the PP, and he’s a definitely defensive liability. Patrick Marleau is definitely not worth the money, and given that he will be 39 it’s very probable that he will not be as good as he was last season.
The Leafs will be paying a 3rd line winger first line money. Does Marleau’s experience and dressing room influence make up for the bad allocation of money? Does it make up for the wins the Leafs could get by spending first line money on an actual first line player.
It is my opinion that it does not. Consider also that if Babcock continues to give more ice time to Marleau than to Johnsson, Kapanen, Brown and Hyman, that this will further hurt the Leafs.
It’s cut-throat, but if the Toronto Maple Leafs want to win a Stanley Cup they will be better off replacing Marleau and reallocating his cap hit.
While I don’t think they actually will, I think they should.
stats from naturalstattrick.com, corsica.hockey