Toronto Maple Leafs: Plan B at Fourth Line Centre
The past few years have seen the Toronto Maple Leafs churn through fourth line centres faster than Hogwarts kills off Defence Against the Dark Arts professors.
Listed below is every Leaf (excluding obvious demotions like Nylander) who has played a minimum of one game at 4C since 2016-17: Ben Smith, Eric Fehr, Dominic Moore, Brian Boyle, Tomas Plekanec, Peter Holland and Frederik Gauthier.
That’s too many players. 7 different ones, in fact, having auditioned across a two-year span.
Gauthier is the lone remaining name heading into next season. And, after spectacularly flaming out in two separate auditions for the role, he’s unlikely to get another crack at it. For all the top-nine certainty the Leafs hold, their constant search for a solidified 4th line pivot is head scratching.
Perhaps Par Lindholm is the long-awaited answer. Everything I’ve read about Lindholm’s SHL production suggests that his transition to the NHL will be a smooth one. Even so, he’s an unknown commodity.
What if he fails? What happens then?
That’s usually where plan B factors in, and the Leafs don’t really have a suitable one.
Newly-signed Josh Jooris is a borderline NHL-calibre player, and the next closest prospect, Adam Brooks, is still a ways away. There’s also precisely zero chance that Mike “He’s 6’5 Everyday” Babcock willingly entrusts all 5’9 of Tyler Ennis to anchor his bottom line.
New options are needed. Let’s take a look at who they might be.
Matt Stajan
It’s a blast from the past!
Turning 35 in December, Matt Stajan’s second stint as a Leaf, should it happen, tops out at likely one year. Regardless, the Mississauga native has remained an effective depth staple throughout his time in Calgary in spite of his age.
Stajan won’t offer much from an offensive standpoint, having finished 2017-18 with just 12 points in 68 games. Then again, that’s not what the Leafs need. Babcock has repeatedly displayed a pattern of stacking his 4th line with defensively responsible pivots of notable size who can win draws. Stajan, standing at 6’1, began 60.8% of his shifts last season in the defensive zone, still managed a 51.6% CF/60 at 5v5, and battled it out in the faceoff dot to a 51.5% success rate.
Check, check and check.
A -2.1 corsi rel% may take some shine off his glistening CF, although that may partially be attributed to the quality, or lack thereof, of his teammates.
Stajan’s four most common linemates came in the form of Curtis Lazar, Troy Brouwer, Garnet Hathaway and Tanner Glass. AKA; no one’s dream team. All but Lazar saw their possession numbers dip upon separating from Stajan, with Lazar’s rising by less than 1%.
Allowing for a quick aside, Glass’ numbers are downright fascinating.
In 83:39 of ice time with Stajan, the enforcer put forth an impressive CF/60 of 55.21%, good enough to raise some eyebrows. The 17:10 Glass played WITHOUT Stajan, however? 5.88%.
Not 50, not 15. Five. As in, 5% away from zero. I’m quite certain that anyone reading this, young or old, could be thrown into a live NHL game and at the very least match that total.
Circling back to Stajan, his true value can be found in the lines above him. Auston Matthews, John Tavares and Nazem Kadri hold down the top-nine, eliminating the need for Stajan to assume the predominantly defensive-minded minutes he’s been dealt in the past. The guy produced admirably over the past five years despite enduring a D-zone start average of 63.56%.
Imagine what he can accomplish when given the inverse?
Stajan is one of the few cost-effective centres remaining in the current UFA pool whose AAV is a lock to come in below $1 million. Not to mention, if he’s still left unsigned by mid-August, there’s no harm in extending him a PTO.
Mark Letestu
Is Mark Letestu anyone’s first choice? Of course not. If he was, he would have been signed by now.
I won’t sugarcoat it; Letestu’s advanced numbers are bad. Like, “I debated not including him in this list” bad. It’s been 7 years since the 33-year-old posted a positive corsi rel%, bottoming out at -8.7 in the 20 post-deadline games he spent with Columbus last season.
Still, glimpses of promise hide amongst the muck.
Like Stajan, Letestu has fallen victim to some wildly one-sided usage in recent years, highlighted by a 38.3% offensive zone-start average during his time in Edmonton. Beginning the vast majority of your shifts 200 feet from the opposing net does no one any favours, perhaps shining Letestu’s metrics in a more flattering light.
Offensively, Letestu has managed to stay remarkably consistent throughout his 11-year career, averaging roughly 25 points annually in 4th line minutes. His 2017-18 totals of 23 points in 80 games are par for the course. Impressive, even, considering 19 of them came during the 60 games Letestu found himself mired on basket case that was last year’s Oilers.
And if you really want to butter Babcock’s biscuit, take a gander at his faceoff numbers.
The guy can flat out win draws, having never finished a season with a success rate under 50%. If the Leafs are indeed planning on deploying their bottom line in predominantly specialist roles, few options are more effective than Letestu in the circles.
He’s far from perfect, but the Leafs don’t need perfect. What they need, rather, is a reliable depth presence capable of taking on a specific role and executing it to a tee.
In a pinch, Letestu fits the bill.
Dominic Moore
The best option is sometimes the one standing right in front of you.
Flirting with age 40, Dominic Moore actually had himself a quite decent 2017-18, at least by 4th line standards. Not only did Moore prove capable of keeping up with Toronto’s incredible speed, he executed any role heaped upon him to largely positive results, despite grappling with the uncertainty that came with shuffling in and out of the lineup on a nightly basis.
Did Moore have a banner year? No. Then again, what else can be expected from a guy who only saw the ice for 10 minutes per night while shackled to Matt Martin?
Given the circumstances, Moore was exactly as advertised.
Unfortunately, thanks to the seeming disdain Babcock holds for the veteran centre, Moore’s return is a doubtful one. Disdain which, when you really think about it, doesn’t make much sense.
As stated earlier, Babcock loves depth centres who win draws. Moore won 54.3% of his last year. If penalty killers are more Babs’ speed, Moore averaged 1:13 of shorthanded ice time on the NHL’s 10th ranked PK. Can he handle defence-heavy minutes, though? Well, Moore landed only 0.7% shy of a 50% CF/60 last season despite starting 62.7% of his shifts in his own zone.
If he stood just 2 inches taller, something tells me Babcock would be a fan.
Were he to return, Moore would find himself in a position to build upon the production from his year prior. Armed with better linemates and inevitably sheltered usage, all signs point to Moore to once again be a perfectly suitable depth option who injects the bottom six with an element of speed all while making close to league minimum for his troubles.
Why not?
Trade Value Power Ranking. dark. Next
Thanks for reading!
Stats courtesy of hockeyreference.com & naturalstattrick.com
Ice time info courtesy of foxsports.com