Countdown to Camp is a series previewing each player under contract to the Toronto Maple Leafs, as well as the team’s unsigned prospects.
This time one year ago, Andreas Borgman was a relative unknown to Toronto Maple Leafs fans.
Following a breakout rookie campaign in Sweden, Borgman made the jump across the pond to sign with the Leafs. His role heading into the 2017-18 season was an unknown. Borgman was in the mix for the open left side, third pairing role, or he could join the Toronto Marlies in the AHL.
Andreas Borgman came to Toronto after just one season in the SHL, giving most the impression that he would be a Marlie to start the season.
Instead, Borgman beat out the likes of Martin Marincin, Travis Dermott, Rinat Valiev, and fellow Swedish signing Calle Rosen for the third pairing spot on opening night, which he held for the majority of the season.
After he was sent down to the Marlies in February, his season took a downturn. Poor play and a season-ending injury ended what was a very promising rookie season.
With Dermott now a lock for the NHL lineup, Borgman sits in an uncomfortable position going into this season. Can he bounce back after the late season demotion in 2017-18, or will Borgman head back to the AHL?
Season Review
As previously mentioned, Andreas Borgman won the left side, third pairing job to start the season. After platooning with Rosen for a brief stint, Borgman won the job outright on October 23, when Rosen was sent to the Toronto Marlies.
It feels like ages ago, but he was paired with Connor Carrick to begin the season, while Roman Polak was still recovering from his gruesome leg injury. The Borgman-Carrick pairing was used as a sheltered, low minute option, appearing together for a total of 218:16 in 28 games. The duo saw significant offensive zone starts (61.1%) but wasn’t overly successful based on their usage.
Borgman’s zone starts evened out when his partner became Polak, however. In 29 games with Polak, Borgman saw 47.8% of his starts come in the offensive zone. Despite the change in start destination, Borgman’s minutes continued to come heavily sheltered, often against the opposition’s weaker lines.
Over the course of the season, Borgman picked up three goals and 11 points. His first point came in his first game (a secondary assist on Toronto’s seventh goal of the game), and his first goal came at the end of October. Overall, Borgman put up intriguing numbers over his 48 games in the NHL, though his usage will have had plenty to do with his results.
When Travis Dermott was recalled by the Toronto Maple Leafs on January 5, it marked the beginning of the end of Andreas Borgman’s NHL season. In need of another defenceman with Nikita Zaitsev out, it was expected that Dermott would play until Zaitsev returned and would subsequently go back to the Marlies.
Just prior to Dermott’s recall, Borgman had some atrocious outings. In three of the four games previous to the transaction, he had posted a 5v5 Corsi-for percentage lower than 34%. That is abysmal, especially combined with the fact his time on ice was lower than 15 minutes at even strength in all four appearances.
Needless to say, when Dermott stepped in and immediately dominated in the same third pairing minutes Borgman was receiving, the writing was on the wall come February 5.
After starting the year on such a high, beating out multiple players for an NHL job, Borgman found himself in a Marlies jersey right before the final stretch of the season.
A Tough Transition
To say Andreas Borgman’s transition to the minors was rough would be an understatement.
After playing adequately in the NHL in a sheltered third pairing role, Borgman now had the expectation on him that he would dominate the AHL, just as Travis Dermott had. Instead, we saw a player who looked out of place.
There were glimpses of promise, such as his incredible solo effort against the Laval Rocket.
Yet, overall, Andreas Borgman disappointed in the 25 games he played with the Marlies. He posted four goals and nine points, which are decent totals for a player who has not historically put up numbers.
The problem came in his defence, where he struggled significantly on a loaded Marlies blueline. When you have so much competition, you simply have to produce.
Andreas Borgman didn’t do that in his stint as a Toronto Marlie.
To make matters worse, Borgman suffered an injury in the first game of the Calder Cup playoffs. Though he toughed it out for Game Two, he was removed from the lineup for Game Three and never returned.
Even if Borgman was healthy, I doubt he would have even got back into the Marlies blueline. The starting six of Marincin-Holl/Rosen-LoVerde/Dermott-Liljegren was fantastic throughout the playoffs, and I couldn’t see any of Marincin, Rosen, or Dermott going out for Borgman.
This makes his 2018 training camp and preseason all the more intriguing. Can he still contend for a Leafs job, or did his poor play in the AHL make Leafs management realize Borgman needs more time against top competition before making the jump to the NHL full-time?
Statistically Speaking
The statistical breakdown of Andreas Borgman really shows his difference in play between the NHL and the AHL.
First off, Borgman was heavily sheltered. He was given offensive deployment against weaker competition, often the oppositions third and fourth lines.
With such usage, Borgman was able to produce offense at an impressive rate. Points, goals, shots for, and expected goals for (all 5v5) were all above the 70th percentile. This is not unexpected with his offensive deployment but is still noteworthy as not all players are able to produce in a sheltered role.
Even his more detailed offensive stats are impressive:
Borgman’s shot creation was excellent, and his shot quality wasn’t too far behind. It’s also not surprising to see his BuildUp60 so low, as with his usage, there wasn’t much build-up play to be done.
Though the offensive numbers are nice, the concern lies in Borgman’s defensive numbers. His shots against (32nd percentile) and expected goals (29th percentile) both are worrisome, especially when combined with his quality of competition.
To be fair to Borgman, his partners didn’t help much. Connor Carrick was solid, where the duo had a high GF% (66.7%) but a low CF% (48.9%). One would anticipate their GF% falling back to a much more normal number based on their sub 50% Corsi and a limited 218:16 TOI together.
With his most common partner in Roman Polak (269:12 TOI), Borgman saw a similar CF% (49.8%) with a far worse GF% (40.7%). Despite the poor numbers with Polak, Borgman finished the year with a 50.3 CF% and a 53.2 GF% at 5v5.
While Borgman did produce those intriguing numbers at the NHL level, his play in the AHL left a lot to be asked for.
His defensive numbers in the AHL were downright terrible. Borgman’s 3.54 GA/60 is over a full goal worse than the next lowest Marlies defenceman (Vincent LoVerde, 2.35). This stat could be the most damning in the argument towards keeping Borgman in the minors in 2018-19.
Through his play in the NHL, and even more so in the AHL, it’s evident Borgman has a ways to go defensively.
Even his offensive numbers in the AHL weren’t very impressive. His nine points in 25 games are solid at first glance, but all five of his assists were secondary. Borgman’s shot creation in NHL should translate to shot creation in the AHL, one would expect. 25 games is a solid chunk of a season, and registering zero primary assists is concerning.
The numbers paint a truly divisive picture regarding Andreas Borgman. He was good in the NHL offensively, but sub-par defensively in sheltered usage. Then in the AHL, decent offensively and borderline terrible defensively.
Profile
Age: 23
Height: 6-foot / 183 cm
Weight: 205 lbs / 93 kg
NHL Draft: Undrafted, Signed by Toronto
Contract
Borgman is in the second year of the two-year entry-level deal he signed on May 16, 2017.
The second year of his contract has no differences to his 2017-18 year. He will earn $832,500 at the NHL level in salary, or $70,000 in the minors. In addition, Borgman received a $92,500 signing bonus on July 1.
Borgman also has the potential to receive $850,000 in Schedule A performance bonuses, though he did not reach any of them in 2017-18.
With these contract details, Borgman will carry a $925,000 cap hit in the NHL, with the potential to rise to $1,775,000 if he reaches all of his performance bonuses, which is highly unlikely.
Season Preview
Andreas Borgman enters the 2018-19 season in a familiar position.
He is far from guaranteed at an NHL job. Just like last year, Borgman will have to battle to make the Leafs out of camp. In fact, Borgman’s chances of making the Toronto Maple Leafs were probably better heading into last season than they are this time around.
With no openings on the left side, Borgman’s only hope to make Toronto’s roster for opening night would be as a seventh defenceman on the roster. Jake Gardiner is a staple on the left side, and it’s unlikely Babcock will move Morgan Rielly or Travis Dermott to their off-side. After a solid 48 game NHL debut, and a disappointing 27 game spell in the AHL, Borgman is in a very unique position heading into camp.
The Leafs have been patient with just about every prospect. That changed in the case of Borgman, as he made the team out of camp with no prior North American experience at 22. He then kept the job over the older, but similarly inexperienced Calle Rosen, for the majority of the season.
Now that his late-season replacement in Travis Dermott has emerged as a legitimate NHL defender, the writing is on the wall for Borgman.
As a 23-year old that is still waiver exempt, it doesn’t make much sense to keep Borgman up as a seventh defenceman. After his stint in the AHL, it’s evident that Borgman needs minutes if he is going to develop into an NHL defenceman for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Heading into his second training camp, Andreas Borgman is in a familiar situation. He surprised last October to make the Toronto Maple Leafs out of camp, and he will have to do the same this time around.
stats from Naturalstattrick.com, Corsica.hockey, capfriendly.com + Ryan Stimson @RK_Stimp