Toronto Maple Leafs: Wisdom From Steven Stamkos

Hopefully, the Toronto Maple Leafs can convince Auston Matthews not to ask for a huge chunk of change in contract negotiations.

If Matthews takes home too much, the Toronto Maple Leafs could potentially suffer. Yes, it’s worth every dollar to make Matthews happy, but not at the expense of the Maple Leafs’ future.

It takes money to win games in any sport. If you don’t believe that then you need to look at the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Chicago Blackhawks, the Boston Red Sox, the New York Yankees, the Golden State Warriors and the Pittsburgh Penguins.

All of the above teams made signings and acquisitions every year to make their team stronger in order to win championships. If the Toronto Maple Leafs want to be included with the teams above, then they need to ensure that Matthews doesn’t rob them blind.

The Maple Leafs need to hold onto cap space in the future to sign FAs every year to addressing new needs at they pop up. If the Maple Leafs don’t, their tenure as a Stanley Cup Contender might be very short-lived.

A couple of years ago, Steven Stamkos signed a 8.5 million USD AAV contract to stay with the Tampa Bay Lightning. He easily could have earned more money and been the highest paid forward in the NHL. Yet, he chose not to break the bank. Stamkos understood that if he earns less money, he’s got a better chance to win year after year. With less money in his pocket, Steve Yzerman, the general manager of the Lightning has more money in his pocket to reel in FAs and/or keep his RFAs.

My hope is that Matthews understands what Stamkos chose to do for the Lightning and that he’ll do the same for the Toronto Maple Leafs.

My Prediction For Matthews’ Contract

Earlier today, I did some research. I decided to look at statistics and contracts from the last four years for Stamkos, Matthews, Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Leon Draisaitl.

In the tweet below, you can see the comparison.

From the comparison, you can tell that arguably the best player on the list is McDavid. He averages 0.42 goals per game and 0.81 assists per game. From his stats, it’s obvious that McDavid is truly worth 12.5 million USD AAV. No one else in the comparison is as dynamic as him.

The second best player on the spreadsheet is a toss-up between Stamkos and Matthews. They have almost identical numbers. Matthews does score at a higher rate than Stamkos, but on the other hand, Stamkos sets up more goals. While Matthews does excel at goal scoring and Stamkos excels at goal creation, their goal and assists totals aren’t that far apart.

Based on statistics, I predict that Matthews will earn 10.5 million USD AAV. His contract wouldn’t be as high as McDavid, but it would still be one of the most expensive contracts in the NHL.

Plus, Matthews wouldn’t be hurting the Toronto Maple Leafs. By taking a 10.5 million USD contract, he’d give the Maple Leafs cap space in the future to lure significant free agents to the GTA.

If you are arguing that the Maple Leafs are done with big spending on FAs after landing John Tavares, you should re-think that. The Maple Leafs are just getting started. Yes, Dubas needs to avoid signing the next David Clarkson. Yet, in order to win in the NHL, you have to spend. There are several top tier free agents hitting the market in 2020 and 2021 including Erik Karlsson, Jeff Skinner, Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene, Blake Wheeler, Artemi Panarin, Alex Pietrangelo, Taylor Hall, Jared Spurgeon and Brayden Schenn.

Can you imagine how much better the Maple Leafs would be if they add one or two players from the list above?

Recap

A few years ago, Stamkos did the Lightning a huge favour. He signed a contract worth 8.5 million USD AAV for 8 years. This contract allowed the Lightning to have a decent amount of cap room, so that the team could retain superstars including Nikita Kucherov, Ryan McDonagh and others.

Hopefully, Matthews does the same. Down the road, the Toronto Maple Leafs will either have to choose to retain players or make massive signings to ensure that they are a cup contender for a long time. If Matthews doesn’t follow Stamkos’ example, he could potentially hurt the Maple Leafs for a long time.

If Matthews signs a 10.5 million USD AAV contract like I predict, he’d be doing the Toronto Maple Leafs a favor. He’d be giving Dubas the opportunity to keep his team intact and add assets.

stats from NHL.com and hockey-reference.com, salary research from capfriendly.com