Toronto Maple Leafs: Extending Auston Matthews

Toronto Maple Leafs sensation Auston Matthews confirmed that contract-extension talks have begun.

The news we’ve all been waiting for has arrived. The Toronto Maple Leafs have started contract talks with Auston Matthews! Now, before everyone starts a parade, patience is the key. It’s no coincidence Matthews confirmed they all preach patience.

Per Mike Zeisberger, Matthews said the following on the extension talks:

“They preach patience,” Matthews said Thursday, referring to his agent, Judd Moldaver, and Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas. “Both of them do. … When it gets done, it gets done. But I don’t think anyone is in too much of a rush.”

All sounds fair and well, however, no doubt every Leafs fan would like to see Dubas sign Matthews to a new contract sooner rather than later. Can’t blame anyone for wanting that, as Matthews is still the Leafs’ future, even with Tavares now dressed in the Blue and White.

Based on nothing but a gut feeling; Dubas will get this deal done before the season starts.

Kyle Dubas is working up to something, something big. Bigger than just the Matthews contract. You probably know what I’m talking about, but don’t get ahead of me just yet! I’ll get to that later today.

Let’s Stack Them Up

The burning question isn’t when Matthews will sign his new contract, but rather what the contract will look like. So, let’s concentrate on the latter.

Matthews picked up 132 points in 144 games in his first two seasons. That’s 16 points more than Eichel did in the same span, who is signed for $10 million per year. 35 points less than McDavid, who is signed for $12.5 million per year.

Matthews absolutely dominates when it comes to goals; 74 against 49 and 53 in 144 games played (all strengths). His superiority is even better expressed at 5v5; 56 against 37 and 24 goals in 144 games played.

There is no doubt goalscorers are worth a lot in the NHL, could it be worth more than the McDavid contract? It could be, but it’s not likely it’ll be worth more just because of the goal-scoring potential.

Predicting A Possible Auston Matthews Contract

It’s not a well kept secret Matthews is a better player than Eichel. Both Elite, Matthews just the better of the two. So it would be sensible to think Matthews will sign a slightly bigger contract. Matthews has not yet proven to be better than McDavid, yet. So his contract will be somewhere in between that of Eichel’s and McDavid’s.

The important question, however, is whether Matthews wants his contract to be in between the value in dollars or percentual value of the team’s cap space. Should Matthews want the latter, his contract may end up being more expensive than expected, since the cap space continues to grow.

Since Matthews joined the same Agency as McDavid, it’s not impossible for that group to aim for just that.

I predicted that the signing of Tavares would make Matthews cheaper. I still believe this to be true. His signing could very well be the trigger for Matthews to aim for the value in dollars instead of the percentual value of the cap space. For the simple reason that Matthews values winning more than being the best-paid player on a roster.

Therefore I still believe Matthews will be signed for around $11.5,- million per year.

All stats from NHL.com, naturalstattrick, and hockey-reference.