Toronto Maple Leafs: Don’t Sign William Nylander to Bridge Deal
July is almost finished, and there is still no news of William Nylander’s extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs.
As the summer is slowly coming to an end, William Nylander has yet to sign an extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs. With $14.74 million in cap space, (+ LTIR exceptions) the Leafs could make Nylander one of the highest paid wingers in the league and lock him up for the foreseeable future..
Drafted 8th overall in the 2014 NHL Entry Draft, William Nylander has become an important cog in the Leafs’ offensive machine. 48 goals and 87 assists over 185 games, 41 power play points, along with a 2.9% realtive Corsi. With back-to-back 61 point campaigns, it’s clear Nylander has a knack for creating plays and scoring goals.
But as the season grows closer with each passing day and Nylander hasn’t put pen to paper, the idea may come up to sign the 22-year old forward to a short-term bridge deal
Word of advice to the Toronto Maple Leafs: Don’t do that.
Burn Bridges and Build Long-Term Extensions
Signing Nylander to a short-term deal may seem like a decent idea. Pay a lower than league average amount for a 60-point forward while you re-sign Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner and building up your defense as three members of it have expiring contracts next summer.
But with a season possibly playing on the wing of John Tavares, the Leafs should want to have Nylander sign for what he is worth now for as many years as they can get him. Playing with one of the best centers in the league will no doubt pad Nylander’s stats to the point that in a few years he could be asking for as much money as Nikita Kucherov.
The Tampa Bay Lightning pulled the bridge deal strategy with Kucherov. After 65 and 66 point seasons, the Lightning wanted to see if Kucherov wasn’t just a flash in the pan. He signed a 3 year deal at $4.76 million per year. He in turn put up 85 points the next season, and 100 points this past season on the wing of Steven Stamkos. He just signed an 8-year deal worth $9.5 million per season when the Lightning could’ve signed him long-term earlier and for far less, but they doubted Kucherov’s abilities and now have to pay the bill.
The Toronto Maple Leafs giving Nylander deal worth around $4-4.5 million over a few more years will allow some free cap space next year, but in the years after the Leafs may regret not paying Nylander his due when he was at his lowest possible cost. The idea with a long term deal coming off a player’s entry level deal is that you gamble on his potential and over pay him now for the chance to have a long term contract that provides value to the team.
Given looming expansion and a constantly rising salary cap, what seems expensive now might seem very cheap for a player of Nylander’s caliber in a few years. Additionally, the team ends up paying him for what he will do instead of what he has done, as well as locking him up through his entire 20s. If you wait until after a bridge contract to make the long term commitment, you have to live with some expensive post-30 years.
In a few years, if his play and numbers do continue to improve, Nylander could be asking for Kucherov or Corey Perry ($8,625,000) money. Looking around the league, locking down Nylander to a contract similar to David Pastrnak ($6,666,666) for the full eight years would make the most sense as they will be paying a lower amount for the prime of Nylander’s career.
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While an NHL player’s prime can go to 30, players tend to peak in their third or fourth season. At just 22 years old, and entering his third season, William Nylander is poised to be the best he will ever be, either this year or nest. Better for the Toronto Maple Leafs to lock him up before he does that rather than after.
Salary numbers courtesy of capfriendly.com
Statistics courtesy of hockey-reference.com