Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews Will Score 65-70 Goals
By James Tanner
The Toronto Maple Leafs are stacked down the middle.
With arguably two of the top players in the NHL centering their first two lines, and another legitimate first line centre on the third line (Nazem Kadri) the Toronto Maple Leafs are now a nightmare for other teams to defend against.
This is going to allow Auston Matthews to approach heretofore undreamt of offensive totals.
But 65 or 70 goals? Tanner have you lost your damn mind? I assure you I have not.
Allow me to break it down.
Auston Matthews
As a rookie, Auston Matthews scored 40 goals and led the NHL in 5v5 scoring – a task that is more impressive, and harder to do, than winning the overall goal title. Someone else racked up tons of power play goals while Matthews’ PP time was limited.
In his second season, Matthews scored 34 goals in only 62 games, which is a 45 goal pace. That is about an 11% improvement from his rookie to sophomore year. Matthews will be entering his third season, which is his age 21 season. It makes sense that he would follow the template set by almost every other superstar in league history and continue to improve into his early 20s. Also, that 11% improvement is probably higher if he doesn’t have to come back from three separate injuries.
Matthews – as a rookie – led the NHL in goals per minute of ice time. As a sophomore, he did it again. In the last three years, Auston Matthews is 11th in 5v5 goals in the NHL, even though he only played in two of those seasons. If we look at only the last two years, Matthews is first in the NHL in 5v5 goal scoring by four goals over Connor McDavid, who has played 600 more minutes and 20 more games.
It’s clear that Auston Matthews is the best goal scorer in the NHL today. That is a fact and there can’t even be a debate because no one is even close.
Improvement
Before we even account for the presence of John Tavares, Matthews should have no trouble hitting 50 goals this year. He improved 11% from his rookie to sophomore seasons, and he’s approaching peak age, and players his age almost always continue to improve.
Add in the fact that with Tavares on the team, now opponents can’t just put all their best defenseman on Matthews. They’ll have to put some pressure on Tavares’ line, so Matthews is going to occasionally benefit with easier minutes. That means even more goals for the guy who is already the best in the league at scoring them.
Now we have to consider also the power-play. Babcock has never given Matthews the power-play time a player of his stature usually gets. Babcock has limited Matthews’ power-play time and used him on the second unit. That`s over. Matthews is going to get more chances on the PP starting in October.
That means even more goals.
1. Age related improvemtent
2. Tavares related improvement
3. Power-play related improvement.
That is for a guy who, if things had gone his way a little more last year probably could already have hit 50.
Oh, and in the year Ovechkin scored 65 goals, he had a lower goals/60 rating than Matthews. That is only the best goal scoring season of the player who, if you adjust for the era he played in, is the best goal scorer in NHL history.
That`s the level we`re talking about Matthews being able to achieve even before the Leafs added Tavares: Ovechkin and Gretzky level goal scoring.
Next: Toronto Maple Leafs Top Ten Prospects
65 goals? 70 Why not? We’re talking about someone who is good on levels people don’t even realize yet. If anything here, I think I’m underselling his potential so as not to seem crazy. It’s not impossible he could score a goal per game for 82 games,
stats from naturalstattrick.com