Toronto Maple Leafs Blueline Targets: Mark Fayne
Stop laughing and hear me out. No team can ever have too many right-handed defencemen. And the Toronto Maple Leafs are no different.
Unlike Enstrom and Davidson, Mark Fayne doesn’t breach the territory of “depth add”. At this point in his career, which is a low one, he’s a reclamation project. A previously consistent performer whose production took a catastrophic dip practically overnight.
Having toiled in the AHL for the past 2 seasons, Fayne sits at the bottom of this UFA pool.
It goes without saying, but Fayne was never a star. Meaning that casting him as one does him a disservice. Fayne’s recently expired $3.5 million cap hit was an overpayment the moment ink hit paper. Everyone seemed to know it.
Well, everyone but the Oilers.
New Jersey
Rarely can one pinpoint the exact moment a players’ production falls off. Declines in hockey tend to unfold in a long and painful manner. Generally ending with both parties submitting to the reality at hand a year or two too late.
Fayne’s, however, is abundantly clear.
In 242 games as a Devil, Fayne proved himself as a decent enough scorer, especially considering how defensively-focused his style is. Logging between 18 and 20 minutes per night, he did so while producing nearly all his offence at even strength.
Throughout his 4 seasons, the former 5th round pick was a positive influence on his team’s ability to drive possession. Never posting a CF/60 below 50%, his respective totals of 54.1%, 51.1%, 57.6% and 54.9% demonstrated an ability to simultaneously keep the puck out of opposing reach while maintaining defensive stoicism.
2011-12, Fayne’s sophomore year, is the one instance where his performance sagged relative to that of his teammates. This was an expected development, triggered by equally significant increases in both role and ice time from his rookie year. Fayne’s -0.1% sophomore corsi rel was an outlier. Ultimately, the defender exited New Jersey with a total average of 1.2%.
With the Devils, Fayne rarely found himself on the wrong end of scoring chances either. On the occasions where his HDGF% landed in the red, an unsustainably low PDO closely followed.
Naturally, he would find himself back in the green the following year.
Oil Trouble
Fayne’s success as a Devil earned him a 4-year deal worth an AAV of $3.625 million per year. Regardless of past results, that is a price far too high to pay for such an offensively-limited defender.
At the time, Alec Martinez and Niklas Hjalmarsson were the closest comparables for such a cap hit. And, while Fayne had certainly performed well in previous years, he’d never reached the level of either player.
From the moment he stepped foot in Edmonton, everything changed.
Paired primarily with Martin Marincin and Nikita Nikitin, Fayne numbers took a steep dive across the board. His ice time, which fell in the 18-20-minute range as a Devil, plummeted down to between 16-17.
From a possession standpoint, his CF/60 cratered to 45.5%, punctuated by a horrific corsi rel% of -4.2.
The Oilers reacted immediately, as Fayne soon found himself riding buses in the AHL. In all, he served 2 separate stints with the Bakersfield Condors, in both 15-16 and 16-17.
So, unless we live in the Space Jam universe, where Fayne’s drop can be explained by the Monstars stealing his talent, this is an anomaly. Players don’t just stop being good like this.
There’s more at play here.
Aside from being a member of some of the worst Oilers teams recent memory has to offer, Edmonton misused Fayne from the outset. This misuse highlighted by dramatic splits in his zone starts.
As a Devil, Fayne started an average of 51.1% of his shifts in the defensive zone. And while these splits are far from Herculean, they’re not sheltered either. In Edmonton, his D-zone starts ballooned out to 56.9%.
Yikes.
With Fayne now being deployed primarily in his own zone, goaltending imparted far more influence on his success than ever before. Unfortunately for him, the early 2010’s Oilers weren’t exactly known for their puck-stopping ability.
Over his two full seasons in Oil Country, Edmonton’s netminders combined for a save percentage of .906 with Fayne on the ice. Unless the expectation was for him to strap on the pads and tend goal himself, that’s simply unacceptable.
So, what do these contrasting splits tell us?
When used correctly, Fayne topped out as a second pairing option with innate defensive ability. Never a stud, but still a consistently positive impact on his team’s possession game. While he’ll likely never reach that level again, the data suggests he’s not the albatross he was as an Oiler either.
Alternatively, when shackled to the defensive zone with a glaring lack of goaltending support, he’s a below replacement level defender with an anchor of a cap hit.
I’d be confident in betting on which Fayne lies closest to the real one.
Outlook
As a right-hand shot, Fayne may be an attractive reclamation project for Kyle Dubas and his stable of world class development staff.
He certainly won’t start in the NHL, but could inevitably assume a Marlies role similar to the one Marincin slid into last season.
At 31, Fayne isn’t quite over the hill yet. And, if he manages to thrive in the care of a coaching staff actually capable of, you know, coaching, he’s a potential RHD commanding zero assets to acquire.
From a cap standpoint, he’s almost certainly available for the league minimum. In fact, Fayne may even bite on being offered an AHL deal, just to get his foot in the door.
He’s not a flashy option. But, Fayne happens to be a formerly productive asset with a resume of more good years than bad.
Why not?
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