Why the Toronto Maple Leafs Need to Trade Nikita Zaitsev
The Toronto Maple Leafs have a need for help on the blue line.
With Rielly, Gardiner, Dermot, Hainsey, Zaitsev, Dermott, Carrick, Borgman, Rosen, Liljegren and Marincin the Toronto Maple Leafs have 11 options, at least. But the thinking is that even though that depth isn’t half bad (how many teams actually have 11 NHL defenseman?) it’s lacking in top-end skill.
Though I think people vastly underrate at least three of these players (Gardiner, Carrick and Marincin) I agree that the Leafs need to use their remaining cap space (around $15 million minus Nylander and Johnson extensions) to improve their defense.
In my opinion, one of the players the Leafs need to move on from is Nikita Zaitsev. Whenever I mention Zaitsev, people say “he had an off year, but he can rebound to his previous play.” Unfortunately, his previous play was somewhat terrible.
Zaitsev is signed to a $4.5 million cap hit on a seven year deal. He will enter year two of that deal next season, and unfortunately, this is starting to look like the first big blunder of the Shanahan era.
The good news is that $4.5 isn’t a ton of money, and since he’s right handed and has scored over 30 points, is a strong puck mover, and is only 26, the Leafs should have no trouble finding a taker for the contact. The bad news is that Calvin de Haan and Colin Miller, both massively better than Zaitsev, just signed for cheaper cap hits.
Let’s look at why the Leafs should want to move on from Zaitsev, despite being weak on the side he plays.
Zaitsev and the Toronto Maple Leafs
Nikita Zaitsev has a bizarre reputation among Leafs fans. Talking to a wide range of fans almost every day, whenever I hear about Zaitsev, people say that he’s good defensively.
This reminds me of Tyler Bozak’s early reputation as a strong defender in that it’s total non-sense but strangely pervasive. Check out the chart below.
As you can see, Zaitsev’s first season was rated a 27 out of 100 on defense. In his second year, he was worse, and was rated a 23. Yikes! He was good at other things in his first year, but really, really bad last year.
Now, maybe you’re saying “I hate charts. Statistics are only a part of the story.” Well, sorry you feel that way, but I am still confused about why sports are the only thing in human history where measuring what happens is somehow controversial. We already measure goals and assists, and advanced stats are just extensions of those, only more accurate due to the larger samples you can collect looking into shot-attempts instead of just goals.
in 2016-17, Zaitsev was a -1.58% relative possession player compared to his team, and that team was one of the league’s worst possession teams. Other than Polak, he was the worst possession defenseman on the Leafs. This means that with Zaitsev on the ice, the Leafs had the puck less and allowed more shots. This past season, Zaitsev was the absolute worst on the team in this stat.
In 2016-17, Zaitsev allowed almost 33 shots per 60 minutes of ice time, second worst on the team. This past season he was almost at 34, though Polak, Rielly and Hainsey were all worse. While 34 shots/60 is absolutely brutal, the reason there are three defenseman with worse stats is because Zaitsev plays mostly with Jake Gardiner, and Gardiner props him up.
Zaitsev with Gardiner is a 48% possession rating, while Zaitsev without Gardiner drops to a 41%.
“Possession” is just a plus/minus stat for shot-attempts, so blocked shots and shots that go wide count. If we only look at shots that get through, the difference is even more stark. Zaitsev and Gardiner as a pairing got 46% of the total shots when they were on the ice. But with anyone else, Gardiner got 53% of the shots, while Zaitsev got only 41%.
Conclusion
Zaitsev is terrible. He is a brutal defensive player who’s only good asset is that he can move the puck. But his offense (36 points as a rookie) isn’t needed on a team with Gardiner, Rielly, Dermot and, eventually, Liljegren. Oh, and it disappeared last year, so maybe year one’s offense was an anomaly. The Leafs need defensive players who can lower their shot totals.
Zaitsev doesn’t do that. He raises them. Zaitsev is essentially a faster Roman Polak who doesn’t hit. He is terrible and the Toronto Maple Leafs should do whatever it takes to get out of his contract and replace him.
Next: Analyzing Every Player the Leafs Drafted in 2018
Time to call the Islanders (or Canadiens, Panthers, Ducks or Canucks).
stats from naturalstattrick.com chart from Ryan Stimson.