Toronto Maple Leafs: Potential Targets for Forward Depth
With John Tavares locked in for 7 years, adding a forward should be a non-issue for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Well, not so fast.
Yes, Toronto boasts a bonafide embarrassment of riches in their top-9, both at centre and on the wing. It’s only when shining a light below where the argument for added help can be made.
As it stands now, the Leafs’ intend on icing a fourth line that features Par Lindholm in the middle, flanked by a duo comprised of Connor Brown and one of Josh Jooris or Carl Grundstrom.
One could say that the top-9’s ferocity eliminates the need for anything below it altogehter. Games are only an hour long, with a set number of minutes to go around. Mike Babcock could simply throw Tavares, Auston Matthews and Nazem Kadri on the ice for 20 minutes apiece and walk away no worse for wear.
Still, if this team intends for its forward depth to be the factor elevating them above rival contenders, solidifying the bottom of the lineup is for the best. You know, just in case.
Unfortunately, that’s a sentence far easier written than accomplished.
This year’s pool of forwards hitting UFA status on July 1st was noticeably thin. Now roughly a week later, the level of talent still available has turned bleak.
At this point, so much as adding depth up front is a tall task, let alone effectively upgrading over what the Leafs currently have. Luckily for them, Kyle Dubas’ ability to take one man’s trash and make it treasure can be of use here.
So, let’s take a gander at the forward options who remain available.
Anthony Duclair
There’s more to Anthony Duclair than regency bias suggests. There must be.
Three years removed from a 20 goal, 44-point sophomore campaign in Arizona, Duclair’s production dipped soon after. So steep was this decline, that the former 3rd rounder will join his third team in the span of two years to begin 2018-19. That being, if a team actually signs him.
There are a few areas of blame here.
Some can be attributed to a breakout year shooting percentage of 19%. That’s obviously an unsustainably high metric, which inevitably left regression as the most likely future outcome.
Slogging away on impotent Coyotes teams factors into this mess as well. Duclair spent the 2016-17 season, his third in the league, largely away from Max Domi, his most frequent and successful linemate. Together, the pair comprised a formidable duo. Apart, not so much.
Even so, there’s cause for optimism here.
A career CF/60 at 5v5 mark of 49.6% shows Duclair has established himself as a consistently positive possession player. In fact, keeping him from bursting through the 50% barrier is his aforementioned lacklustre 2016-17 campaign and the 46.9% CF that came with it.
Yet, mired in a noticeable down year, Duclair continually produced as a positive possession player in relation to his teammates, with a CF rel of 2.1%. In all four of his NHL seasons, Duclair has, in fact, finished with a positive corsi rel.
Obviously, advanced numbers don’t tell the whole story. Rather, their intended use is that of a tool to effectively complement already existing data. “Fancy stats” aid in telling a story, one hinting at a modicum of potential buried within a previously discarded asset.
Duclair is as discarded as they come.
Failing to receive a qualifying offer from the Blackhawks, his value is, at this moment, likely lower than it ever will be. If the opportunity to buy low on a skilled asset presents itself, take it. Duclair is a young player with a number of issues in need of refinement. Albeit, one who’s proven himself effective when placed in the right circumstances.
No team can shelter their fourth line to the same degree the Leafs can. In favourable minutes, Duclair will be free to feast on the fringes of opposing lineups. Surrounded by the world-class developmental staff put in place by Dubas himself, Duclair could very well thrive.
All while barely registering against the cap.
Tyler Ennis
To most, the name Tyler Ennis conjures up images of a contract so bloated, the Wild couldn’t rid themselves of it fast enough. Well, hold your horses.
Yes, Ennis’ previous cap hit was undoubtedly egregious, but it’s Paul Fenton’s problem now. God bless buyouts.
Remember, top line talent is not the focus here. The Leafs have plenty of it and even more waiting in the wings. Rather, the need at hand is for effective bottom-line contributors.
Ennis, at a paltry cap hit, could be just that.
At first glance, Ennis’ possession numbers paint a rough picture. Never venturing into positive territory at any point in his career – save for a 10 game stint in 2009-10 – “corsi darling” is far down Ennis’ list of potential nicknames.
Although, take a deeper look.
In 8 years of NHL service, Ennis’ minutes have rarely been sheltered to a noticeable degree. His zone starts roughly equate to an even split between o-zone and d-zone, with career totals of 51% and 49.4% respectively.
Much Like Duclair, a sheltered role may trigger a production bump from a player who’s never been put in one.
In the sport of hockey, luck must be accounted for, be it good or bad. With the increased quality of play, the game hinges on random chance more than ever, something that cannot be ignored.
And according to Ennis’ career PDO, he’s rarely seen much of the former.
6 of Ennis’ 8 NHL seasons have been punctuated by a PDO south of 100. This makes producing meaningful results far more difficult from the outset, with his team posting abnormally low save and shooting percentages during instances when he’s on the ice.
Ennis’ 2017-18 PDO of 100.6 is his highest since 2011. Coincidently, it coincided with a point total of 22, his most since 2014-15.
Ennis will never return to his 20-goal form as a Sabre. Those days are long over. Instead, Ennis may provide the Leafs with suitable 4th line production in sheltered minutes. Doing so for a salary that teeters on league minimum.
Best case, he succeeds. Worst case, you bury him. Why not?
Nick Shore
Advocating for the acquisition of Nick Shore, who wound up in three different organizations in 2017-18 alone, isn’t easy. Why would the Leafs actively seek out someone deemed expendable by multiple teams within the span of a year?
Like Transformers, there’s more than meets the eye.
Remember how no one would call Ennis a “corsi darling”? Well, that’s actually because the nickname applies to Shore instead. The 25-year-old has never so much as flirted with a negative possession metric, his lowest total of 52.5% coming in 49 games as a King last season.
These numbers aren’t propped up by those around either. Quite the opposite, actually, as Shore regularly posts a positive corsi rel. An occurrence suggesting that he may benefit offensively from higher quality linemates.
Guess what the Leafs have a surplus of?
Listed as a centre, Shore’s would inject depth into a position that, after the big three, the Leafs are in dire need of. Babcock has repeatedly expressed his intent to compile a forward corps made up of wingers who are capable of shifting to centre in a pinch. Not only does Shore fit that mold, his right shot gives the fourth line an added versatility. With Babcock’s insistence handedness in relation to draws, Shore could step in for Lindholm – a left shot – whenever necessary.
At a cap hit all but certain to fall below the $1 million mark, Shore emerges as an attractive target for the lineup’s edges.
Thanks for reading!
All stats from hockeyreference.com