Toronto Maple Leafs: Kyle Dubas, The Trade Down Guy

On a bright Saturday afternoon, Kyle Dubas, newly-appointed general manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs stepped before the cameras to put a bow on the 2017-18 season.

It was locker cleanout day at Ricoh Coliseum. Two days removed from the first Calder Cup victory in Toronto Marlies franchise history.

Basking in a winner’s glow – and very likely nursing more than a few hangovers – players and staff alike buzzing around the rink, feverishly attempting to cross their I’s and dot their T’s before the championship rally commenced in the next hour.

For all involved, this was a moment set aside for celebrating the present.

In the days to follow, various members of the group would depart, each going their separate ways to enjoy a well-earned a summer of recovery. Most would leave armed with the promise of an October reunion in training camp.

Others are gone for good.

Yet, on a day specifically reserved for living in the moment, Dubas was looking ahead. Just as he’s been wont to do.

As expected, the scrum’s initial questions centred around the Calder Cup, specifically the emotions attached with its arrival. Although, in the glaringly intense media fishbowl of Toronto, discussion quickly shifted towards the upcoming draft, Dubas’ first as official Leafs’ GM.

“Do you have any interest in moving up in the first round?”  quizzed one reporter.

“We have interest in whatever we can do,” Dubas replied.

“I know a lot of people say, ‘he’s only a trade down person’. I don’t know how that’s got to that point.”

Skip forward to Friday night and he was at it again. We got Dubas’ed.

Singular Vision

For someone so adverse to the label of “Trade Down Person™”, Dubas trades down quite a bit. Which is far from bad.

One particular thing about Dubas that’s caught my eye during this season of coverage is the quiet confidence with which he carries himself. Confidence that, were it you or I, would be far less quiet than his.

The man has spent his past four years meticulously building the Marlies, bit by bit, into a juggernaut of his own creation. Entering the fray amongst hockey’s youngest executives, Dubas laid out a personal blueprint for success right from the outset. A vision to serve as his ultimate goal.

Reaching that goal simply couldn’t have been done without unwavering trust in his own process.

To Dubas, pedigree was largely irrelevant, so long as the player in question would further his team’s ability to win. Within a sport where events transpire for no reason other than “that’s the way we’ve always done it”, Dubas refused to travel down anyone’s path but his own.

To lob a hot take out there, I’ll say it worked.

Which brings us to the 2018 NHL Entry Draft, a moment speaking volumes regarding how Dubas intends on running this club. Sure, you can certainly try to pigeonhole him into a specific managerial archetype. You just won’t succeed. And the reason as to why you won’t succeed is simple.

He won’t let you.

“I think, if there’s an opportunity for us to add players that can help our team, we have the capital in draft choices to be able to do so,” continued Dubas. 

“So, I don’t ever go into it saying ‘we’re going to do X and Y’. We’re going to do whatever we can do to help the team and keep it moving ahead. If that means move up, move down, stay in the same spot, pick a player we like, that’s what we’ll do” 

Draft Dealing

That opportunity presented itself Friday, with Dubas sending his initial 25th pick to St. Louis in exchange for picks #29 and #76. Now four spots later, he used the first of his new selections to nab Sault St. Marie defenceman Rasmus Sandin at 29th.

Then, Twitter happened.

Following its completion, the Sandin pick has since evolved into a divisive topic amongst the Leafs fanbase. Although, not for the merits of the player himself. Rather, for the talent remaining on the board at the time of selection.

Like many of you, I crossed my fingers in anticipation of hearing Joe Veleno‘s name when the Leafs took the podium. How could you not? The Athletic’s Corey Pronman saw him going 13th, ISS projected him at 10th, with Bob McKenzie ultimately predicting the 6’1 centre gone at 11th.

Witnessing a borderline top-10 talent – a centre, no less – drop to 29th, only to then pass on him is disheartening.

Just, not to Dubas.

Trading Down

Could the Leafs have used Veleno? Absolutely.

Every single team perusing the draft floor this weekend could have and to say otherwise would be a lie. Veleno’s good. There’s no denying that.

Although, reports had indicated that Sandin was Toronto’s guy from the outset.

From there, he became a destination along Dubas’ path, a certainty, with focus quickly shifting towards maximizing the Leafs’ draft position.

How could they nab Sandin and exploit other teams at the same time? By trading down, of course!

In recent years, it’s become evident that, as the draft creeps past the initial 20 or so picks, the talent margin separating remaining prospects turns razor thin. This knowledge armed Dubas with the confidence that Sandin would remain on the board at 29. The pool became murky. Dubas sought to both get his guy and stack a cupboard which was rapidly thinning as well.

So, he orchestrated the trade to slide down a mere four spots. A slide hinging on the condition that a third-round pick sweetener is added to the mix.

It worked.

Sandin was had at 29th. With the Leafs then proceeding to use their newly-obtained 76th slot to pluck Semyon Der-Arguchintsev.

Asset Management

Were a caricature of the typical “Dubas pick” to be crafted, Der-Arguchintsev would be it.

The Peterborough Pete is a small yet extremely skilled centre. The type worth gambling on simply due to the boom capability of his potential.

SDA (as I will now refer to him since his name is so long it surpasses the character limit for NHL.com’s custom jersey shop) is actually the youngest player in his class. His birthday falls on September 15th, 2000, the exact cutoff date for 2018 draft eligibility.

The term “boom or bust” has been used most to describe this pick, and rightfully so. Although, Dubas has spent a career forming a lengthy track record of which the booms dwarf the busts.

Yes, Veleno remained on the board. But, Dubas managed to secure – in his eyes – the best player available among the current crop while simultaneously acquiring a prospect with explosive potential who happens to play Veleno’s position.

Amid the draft day hoopla, it’s easy to forget that these prospects are exactly that; prospects.

Their lone path to NHL employment runs directly through the developmental system of their respective NHL teams. And, luckily for the Leafs, they possess one of the best in the league.

And with that, confidence factors in once more.

An effective developmental system allows GM’s the leeway to plunge away on these risky picks. Blessed with the necessary internal means of stoking out true potential, Dubas could bite on SDA without worry of recklessly leaving talent up on the board.

It’s far easier to make these gambles aided by the confidence that, the second SDA steps foot into the Leafs organization, booming morphs into his most likely outcome.

Looking Ahead

During that locker cleanout scrum, I asked Dubas about the degree to which positional need factors into his drafting process. His answer, short and sweet, sent a message:

“Zero. We want to pick the best guys available, bring them in here, and develop them into NHLers”

Sometimes, the best guys available are attached with risk. And that’s just fine.

At the time, it was risky for the Sault St. Marie Greyhounds to put a 25-year-old in charge of their hockey operations, and he succeeded. Entrust their internal prospect pipeline to a 28-year-old with no prior NHL experience four years ago was a risk for the Leafs, and Dubas succeeded there too.

Kyle Dubas doesn’t care about the risks. And, to some degree, you shouldn’t either.

Next: Marlies D Who Could Make the Jump

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