Toronto Maple Leafs: Marlies D Who Could Make the Jump

A roster crunch is waiting for the Toronto Maple Leafs as training camp commences in October.

Dubas & Co. currently find themselves in a curious position when it comes to personnel. A position particularly emphasized when dissecting the blue line. Namely, the organization needs defensive help and also happens to possess a logjam of capable, albeit far from game-breaking options.

Of course, names like Martin Marincin, who already houses an extended big league stint under his belt, factor into this mix. Although, I’m not diving into Marty today.

No, I’ll be sinking my teeth into some of the less visible options.

Here are three different members of the Marlies D, each holding varied odds of landing their jump to the Leafs blueline. As such, I’ve chosen to grade said odds on a scale of 1-10.

What does the scale mean? Honestly, not much. It’s just a method to quantify which player’s chances appear slighter higher than the others. Meaning, don’t come at me with cries for someone being a 6.5 instead of a 6. I don’t care.

With that said, let’s jump right in.

Justin Holl

Handedness: right

Age: 26

Odds at Leafs Job: 8/10

It’s hard to imagine a Kyle Dubas blueline neglecting to feature Justin Holl.

As the 2018-19 season inches closer, so does the four-year anniversary of the pair’s relationship in hockey. A relationship that is, by all accounts, as strong as they come.

Connection aside, Holl’s chances of cracking the lineup hinge on the blueline’s ideological makeup.

Barring catastrophic injury, Holl will inevitably be fighting for the RHD spot on the 3rd pair. Unremarkable, but important to note. Primarily because, during his 3 seasons behind Toronto’s bench, Mike Babcock has repeatedly demonstrated a fondness for stacking his 3rd pairing with “safe” players.

And Justin Holl is no safe player.

Pros

Rather, a desire to initiate the rush through aggressive zone entries is more indicative of the 26-year-old’s bread and butter.

In fact, Holl carries himself more in the vein of a 4th forward. Forgoing chip and chase tactics, he carries the puck through the neutral zone and into opposing territory on his own volition. As such, Holl morphed himself into a zone entry machine. A strategy that has produced largely positive results so far.

The most notable example being his first NHL goal.

Neglecting the typical rattling of the puck around the boards, Holl opts instead to hold it and drive wide. Knowing Zach Hyman is crashing the net, Holl shoots. His choice forming increased odds of a net-front rebound.

This time, it goes in.

Plays like the one above stand in staunch opposition to the mould of a typical Babcockian third-pairing D. Rather, Holl projects as a new-age mobile defenceman. The same archetype adept at dominating possession metrics while factoring heavily into his blueline’s offensive composition.

The 2017-18 season saw Holl establish professional career-highs in both assists and points, with 21 and 28 respectively, coming in just 60 games. Impressively, these benchmarks were earned despite Holl receiving almost no time on the PP.

Now, were a role on the man advantage in the cards, Holl could have quite easily carved himself out a respectable niche as a mobile point presence. Only, niches are limiting.

Instead, he served as a key member for one of the most effective penalty kill units in AHL history.

Cons

On the flip side, Holl’s aggressiveness can, at times, burn him.

This came to a head during the Calder Cup Playoffs – particularly in the later rounds –  when teams seemingly figured his act out. To counter Holl’s aggressive tactics, wingers were implored to aggressively attack the point, anticipating Holl’s attempts to walk the line.

This led to some undesirable instances, such as the one below. (The clip begins at the 1:30 mark)

Yeah, that’s exactly the type of gaffe guaranteed to bury you underneath Babcock’s doghouse. Which brings us back to the ideological makeup of the Leafs blueline.

If management opts for a more mobile unit under Dubas, Holl could likely assimilate into the fold as an effective contributor. On the other hand, if Babcock’s ideal blueline takes precedence, desire for a risk-taking third pairing option will be limited.

Holl’s right-handed shot helps his case.. But, with Igor Ozhiganov – a much more Babcock-friendly player – now in the fray, he’ll be in for a fight.

Calle Rosen

Handedness: Left 

Age: 24

Odds at Leafs Job: 5/10

The first half season of Calle Rosen‘s North American career was decidedly unpretty.

Despite generating some ridiculous shot volume, Rosen found himself goalless through his initial 44 games in Marlies blue.

Frankly, Rosen just seemed off. Not looking comfortable on the smaller ice, he struggled to control his gaps and identify open passing lanes. As such, offensive blueline turnovers became routine. It was rough.

Despite his struggles, skill lurked under the surface. It was evident, needing to be prodded.

Then, a switch was flipped. Travis Dermott‘s big league January promotion placed a larger role on Rosen’s shoulders. Lacking their best puck mover, Sheldon Keefe chose to rely on his 24-year-old Swede to ease the pain.

Rosen did exactly that.

Pros

In short, he became a completely different player along the season’s latter half.

His shift primarily facilitated by Rosen finally making use of his distinct skills. Perhaps the most glaring example being his fluid skating stride, arguably the smoothest on the team.

Rosen’s is a stride that catches opponents off guard. To the naked eye, he actually doesn’t appear to be that fast. Although, thanks to some phenomenal edges and body control, Rosen can turn the jets on in an instant, forcing defenders to collapse in response.

In the clip above, Rosen completes an effective defensive zone exit to Andreas Johnsson before exiting the frame. As Johnsson enters the Stars’ zone, Rosen goes from 0 to 60 in 2 seconds flat, emerging from the top of the frame untouched and catching Texas defender Justin Dowling flat-footed. All Dowling can do to respond is lunge at Rosen from a static stance, where Rosen then easily dances around him and buries it top shelf.

Armed with confidence, Rosen operates as an effective puck-moving defenceman, one with a track record of rising to the occasion. Coming off a disappointing 22 points in 66 regular season games, Rosen exploded come playoff time to the tune of 11 points in 16 games.

Without a doubt, the Marlies would not have hoisted the Calder Cup without him.

Cons

On the defensive side of the puck, Rosen’s play leaves much to desire.

Regularly getting caught out of position, he began making getting walked off the rush a habit. Wilting under opposing pressure in the corners, Rosen routinely emerged from board battles chasing the puck more often than not.

As the season unfolded, his shot generation became a major point of focus. At year’s end, Rosen’s total of 159 placed second on the Marlies, one behind Chris Mueller, a forward who played 11 more games.

This isn’t to say that shot generation is a bad thing. Quite the opposite, in fact.

It’s just that, if shot quality is accounted for, Rosen’s metrics look far less appetizing. Essentially, he would just fling it at the net from any angle, primarily from the point, opting against opening up space to clear a lane.

There’s a reason why, in spite of such volume, he finished the year shooting 2.5%.

Now, Rosen did begin to remedy this as the season unfolded. Exhibiting far more patience with the puck, he started actively seeking higher percentage chances. Still, it’s a habit that, at age 24, may prove difficult to iron out.

Rosen’s chances at Leafs employment fall largely in the same camp as Holl’s. The former’s being bogged down by his left-handed shot, an organizational surplus.

It’s unlikely that Rosen spends another year in the AHL. He could theoretically wind up as the 7th D when camp concludes.

Andreas Borgman

Age: 22

Handedness: Left

Odds at Leafs Job: uh, this is a tricky one

Who didn’t love early-season Andreas Borgman?

The guy was trucking dudes left and right, all while flashing glimpses of offensive potential and exhibiting all the features befitting of a fan favourite. Alas, Borgman’s performance gradually began to slip. He was eventually sent to the Marlies following a 48-game stint in the show.

I’m going to be a bit more informal with Borgman’s assessment here. Mainly because there are so many moving parts.

Step Down

Borgman’s demotion was justified with the expectation of developing him into an effective penalty killer down on the farm. It made sense. I mean, this strategy had proved successful for a number of organizational pieces in the past. Just ask Kasperi Kapanen, Travis Dermott and Andreas Johnsson, to name a few.

Although, Borgman never truly looked comfortable at the AHL level.

Despite projecting as a hulking defensive specialist, it’s a role he held little experience playing during his time in the SHL. Still, the Marlies dolled him with heavy PK minutes right off the hop and he performed them admirably.

He was just never as effective as many expected him to be.

On the Marlies, Borgman found himself being burned off the rush quite often, much like current and former teammate Rosen. This is a peculiar occurrence, as Borgman had the added benefit of a significant sample size combating against NHL-calibre speed.

Come playoff time, Borgman suffered a lower-body injury. He never returned.

As the postseason progressed, many, myself included, began to wonder whether Borgman was being held out of the action intentionally. This was largely due to the fact that the Marlies didn’t really seem to need him. With Dermott back in the fold, there legitimately did not appear to be room on the blueline for Borgman amongst the current group.

So, where does this leave him? Well, there’s still hope for the 22-year-old.

Outlook

Namely, I’m incredibly curious to watch Borgman compete against NHL competition when paired alongside a defence partner not named Roman Polak.

Stapling a rookie defenceman to one of the league’s worst regular contributors at his position for over half a year is no one’s recipe for success. How he fares in extended minutes alongside literally anyone else will accurately speak to his true potential.

Now, like Rosen, Borgman is a left-handed shot. And, unfortunately for him, Toronto’s left side happens to be made up of Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner, Travis Dermott and Ron Hainsey. Supplanting any of those names is highly unlikely. Something which doesn’t bode well for Borgman’s odds at cracking the roster.

Although, there’s a catch. In one year’s time, both Hainsey and Gardiner hit free agency, with the former a near lock to walk away. Spots will be open, albeit not right now.

If Borgman is content with marinating in the AHL for all of 2018-19, continuing his development on the PK while benefiting from consistent minutes, he could very well push for a job down the road.

That’s a big if, however, as seemed thoroughly frustrated with his demotion during his stint with the Marlies.

Sometimes hockey is a waiting game. Borgman has the potential to become an effective NHL contributor.

How long he’s willing to play said waiting game will determine his future with the Leafs.

Next: First Rounders Through the Years

Thanks for reading!