Toronto Maple Leafs: How Good Is Connor Carrick?

The Toronto Maple Leafs signed Connor Carrick to a one-year contract extension this week.

Last season, Connor Carrick got into 47 games with the Toronto  Maple Leafs and had 12 points.  He did not suit up for the Playoffs.  For a full review of the Carrick Situation (by Robert Ludlum) including an evaluation of his contract and playing time situation, check out Wil’s article from Wednesday. 

This article is going to focus on the statistical analysis of Connor Carrick’s play.  Stats used will be from Naturalstattrick.com

Connor Carrick is a right side defenseman.  On the Leafs, last season, he was behind Hainsey (left shooting playing the right side), Zaitsev and Polak on the depth chart.  Some people will say “Mike Babcock knows best” and leave it at that.  Reputation-based evaluations based on the perceived opinion of the coach make up approximately 99% of hockey evaluations that you hear.  If you try to talk back against these ideas, people call you names and tell you how stupid you are.

When the player is only 24, however, perhaps the coaches present-day usage of him isn’t indicative of his potential for the future.  Mike Babcock is is a great coach, but he’s just trying to win the game in front of him. He’s got three right-handed spots:  Hainsey plays the majority of the PK,  Zaitsev is signed for seven years and coming off 40 points, Polak brings something no one else on the team brings.  What’s he supposed to do with Carrick?

Just because Babcock doesn’t play him, doesn’t mean he doesn’t like him or that Carrick isn’t good. Unfortunately, “Babcock doesn’t like Carrick” became a bit of a thing.  It’s probably not even true. It certainly doesn’t mean Carrick is garbage, or that he has no future with the Leafs.  He’s 24 years old. He is six months older than Andreas Johnsson, PRIZED ROOKIE.  Just because Carrick has been on the team for several years and the excitement about him has faded, doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have a great career in front of him. He may not have been Babcock’s top choice last season, but Carrick is a good player with a lot to offer.

Statistically he is a player who every team should be searching for – a young, right shooting, fleet of foot defenseman who puts up encouraging statistics.

Stats

Last season, Carrick (12 points) averaged 14:30 per game, when he played.  Overall, he put up a 52% possession rating, which is considered very good.

The best defensive team in the NHL last season was the Boston Bruins.  They allowed 27.37 shots per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time.  The Leafs were 4th worst, at 32.85.

Everyone talks about how the Leafs have to improve their defense, and that is why.  You can’t expect long-term success if you allow 33 shots per game, every game.

If we look at the eight Leafs defenseman who played over 30 games, guess who allows the least shots per 60 minutes of ice time?  Connor Carrick of course.  27.89 shots against per 60 to be precise.

When Carrick plays, the Leafs are Boston Bruins territory as far as defense goes.  Now, of course there is a difference between an entire team doing that for 60 minutes, and one guy doing (not against top competition) for 15.  But its VERY encouraging. And, Carrick only played 47 games, and the guys taking his minutes during the other 35 games and seven playoff games did not limit shots to that extent.

Carrick appears to be the best Leafs player at doing the thing that the Leafs are most terrible at.

OK say you’re not sold on shots being important.  Just going by goals, Carrick is still the Leafs best defenseman in this dept. as well, excepting Dermott who the stats suggest was much luckier. (Carrick had second lowest PDO while Dermott had the highest).

From a defensive standpoint, Carrick is excellent.  From an offensvie standpoint he isn’t very good. He’s never going to be your #1.  But he is right handed, 24, and great defensively.  He wouldn’t be the worst idea to be a partner for Morgan Rielly.

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a very good player in Connor Carrick.  He flies under the radar because he doesn’t score much and he doesn’t make “big” plays.  Also, the coach hasn’t shown much use for him.

Next: Toronto Maple Leafs Top Ten Prospects 2018

BUT we have to remember, the coach is a guy who LOVES veteran players.  He is a guy who is making Auston Matthew earn his ice-time.  Carrick is the still young in relative terms to the rest of the Leafs roster.  His stats suggest the Leafs have a the exact kind of shot-limiting, defensive defenseman that they should be looking for.