Toronto Maple Leafs: Frederik Gauthier’s Murky Future

The Toronto Maple Leafs doomed Frederik Gauthier from the start.

Selecting Gauthier in the first round of the 2013 Entry Draft was an immediate byproduct of the most historic postseason collapse in NHL history.

You remember, right? Two months prior, the Boston Bruins manhandled the Leafs for all to see. Reeling from the shame of Game Seven, management felt something had to be done.

In a desperate attempt to counter Boston’s overwhelming grit, then-coach Randy Carlyle repeatedly stacked his lineup with copious helpings of size and gumption, to the detriment of skill and speed.

It didn’t work. And, here we are.

Grit Hurricane

They say the NHL is a copycat league.

If you remain a sceptic of that notion, I’d prescribe a quick stroll down a memory lane comprised entirely of every Leafs move from the summer of 2013. I guarantee you it will dispell all doubt.

The lightning rod was David Clarkson‘s albatross contract, the move serving as then-GM Dave Nonis‘ most prominent reactionary reflex. A former 30-goal-scorer, it wasn’t Clarkson’s offensive abilities which earned him this long-term commitment.

No, it was something else.

Before that came the buyout of skilled centre Mikhail Grabovski. Immediately after, Dave Bolland rode into town. As free agency rolled along, Clarke MacArthur was handed his walking papers while Colton Orr and Fraser MacLaren received contract extensions.

And yet, hidden in the eye of the grit hurricane sat Gauthier.

Time Flies

With the 2018 NHL Entry Draft commencing later this month, the 5th anniversary of Gauthier’s selection continues its gradual descent.

Now nearly five years to the day, the Laval native’s resume consists of just 37 NHL games, highlighted by career totals of 3 goals and 2 assists for 5 points.

Not exactly the production one expects from their first-round pick.

Only, Gauthier should have never been one in the first place. Topping out as a third line centre, the blame of wasting the 21st overall pick on his skill set falls on Nonis’ shoulders, not his.

Appearing lost at the NHL level, the soon-to-be pending RFA has since found his niche as a defensively responsible pivot in a high-flying Toronto Marlies lineup.

And, with the Marlies a mere 2 games from Calder Cup glory, Gauthier’s impending status is firmly on the backburner. A strong postseason from the 23-year-old has turned what appeared to be the cut-and-dry parting of ways between club and player into a ponderous debate.

For the man the fans call “The Goat”, the future is murkier than ever.

Centre Depth

It’s not all grey areas, though.

The glaring dearth of quality centres within the Leafs organization is the factor working hardest in Gauthier’s favour.

Outside of an Auston Matthews, Nazem Kadri comprised top-2, there exists a noticeable lack of viable NHL-quality pivots ready to fill Toronto’s lineup vacancies.

Starting off wickedly slow, Marlies rookie Adam Brooks has since recovered better than anyone could have hoped. Still, he remains a year away from Mike Babcock‘s radar, at the bare minimum.

Miro Aaltonen‘s debut campaign in North America certainly raised some eyebrows, while, in turn, casting doubt as to whether his success can successfully translate to the level above.

And don’t forget newly-signed Par Lindholm, who I won’t even pretend to know anything about.

So, this gifts Gauthier with a degree of leverage.

Yes, his five-year tenure within the organization hasn’t exactly done all that much to instil management with any faith in him becoming a big league centre.

But, what other choices do they have?

The options above boast a cumulative total of zero games of NHL experience. Each player is either at the early stage of his development curve or a question mark at the professional level.

If the Leafs have entered “centre hell”, Gauthier is, at the very least, the devil they know.

The Dubas Factor

I’d wager that, were newly-appointed GM Kyle Dubas at the helm in 2013, Gauthier would not be a Toronto Maple Leaf.

As much as that would’ve helped the team back then, yearning over past failure does no good.

Thankfully, Dubas now runs the show. Being GM means he wields sole authority over all personnel decisions. Decisions which include those centred around the pending RFA’s. Considering that Dubas currently runs the Marlies – a job he’s held for the past 4 years – it’s fair to assume he’s pretty familiar with his hulking centre.

In fact, Dubas has likely spent more time observing, and by extension, evaluating Gauthier than anyone within the organization. Save for the Marlies’ coaching staff.

Such a history with the player in question allowed Dubas to accumulate an expansive sample size upon which he can judge Gauthier. Avoiding the pitfalls from GM’s before him, Dubas can now resist the various seductive tendencies a strong postseason run emits.

Now, if this were Peter Chiarelli, Gauthier would have been locked up immediately following his double O.T. winner from round two.

Thankfully, that’s not the case.

Babcock’s Guy

The opinion of one Mike Babcock impacts this decision as well.

It’s probably a safe assertion that Dubas and Babcock hold at least some degree of differing opinion regarding their ideal player types.

Babcock is drawn towards those adept at making the “safe” play, a la Roman Polak. While, on the other hand, Dubas conducted an entire TED Talk-style lecture at the 2015 Sloan Analytics Conference on how that exact type of player is detrimental to a team’s overall success. 

Coincidentally, Babcock has been a noted Gauthier fan for a while now.

So, while I vehemently dispute the ridiculous “Babcock vs Dubas” narratives crafted by writers who hold original ideas in short supply, there is – or appears to be – a genuine gap in opinion here.

That said, The Athletics’s Justin Bourne has worked closely with Babcock previously during his tenure as Marlies Video Coach. I bring this up because, recently, Bourne offered a brief insight into the thought process of the NHL’s highest-paid coach.

One specific point resonated the hardest. That being, once Babcock forms an opinion, changing his mind is next to impossible. And, while it can still be done, any alternative perspective must be supported by an excessive, borderline unnecessary amount of video evidence.

It looks as if that expansive sample size Dubas built might just come in handy, eh?

The Safe Player

Despite a recent stretch of postseason offensive success – 8 points in 17 games – Gauthier is very much categorized as a “safe” player. At the present moment, that’s not necessarily a bad thing.

His various contributions and steady presence down the middle have factored heavily into the Marlies’ current close proximity to a Calder Cup. Something which Dubas has undoubtedly made note of.

In his own end, Gauthier is unwavering in his defensive responsibility. Anchoring the Marlies’ AHL-leading penalty kill, he rarely – in spite of his name – dons the goat horns following a goal against.

On the flip side, his ability offensively can be most affectionately described as that of a “barren wasteland”.

With three full seasons at the AHL level now under his belt, Gauthier’s results are less than flattering. In any given year, he’s never finished a campaign with a point total higher than 18. In the same vein, the margin of 7 goals remains to be topped as well.

Both milestones were established this season, now a half-decade removed from his draft year.

By personal standards, 2017-18 was a banner year for Gauthier. Yet, a final stat line of 7 goals, 11 assists and 18 points – the best of Gauthier’s career – landed him 19th in team scoring.

His 57 games played placed 12th.

Cap Consequences

For a team as financially blessed as the Toronto Maple Leafs, concern surrounding Gauthier’s next contract simply does not exist.

A pending RFA, the Leafs now have a few choices.

They can either extend Gauthier a qualifying offer by June 26th, to the tune of $874,125. Or, they can simply decline to qualify him, which turns him into a UFA. If Gauthier accepts his QO, the Leafs retain his rights for another year. If he turns it down, he’s barred from achieving UFA status and must come to terms on a new deal prior to the November 1st deadline or risk sitting out the whole season.

Now, $874,125 is chump change to the Leafs. I mean, we’re talking about the team directly responsible for making the act of paying players to not play for you in vogue.

Still, handing a player who holds no hope of cracking your NHL roster upwards of a quarter million dollars is far from ideal. Something tells me that won’t sit well with Dubas, a man who abhors any presence of excess fat littering his roster.

Trade

If Friday’s Nolan Vesey trade tells us anything, it’s that no prospect is untradeable.

Regardless of offensive shortcomings, Gauthier remains a centre, arguably the most coveted position among NHL executives. In a league full of “hockey men”, one team will inevitably fail in resisting the appeal of a gargantuan pivot with first-round pedigree.

It’s poor asset management. But, then again, the majority of GM’s manage their assets poorly.

*cough* Dale Tallon *cough*

This is the avenue I believe Dubas will push down the hardest.

It was widely known that the Leafs had no intention of inking Vesey, and they still managed to recoup a 7th rounder in exchange for his rights.

Vesey may never crack the NHL. Gauthier already possesses tangible NHL experience.

After three underwhelming years, the signs are there. And they point towards of one of the Nonis-Era’s most egregious stumbles riding off into the sunset.

Next: 10 Summer Predictions

All we can do now is wait.