The Toronto Maple Leafs have reached the competitive portion of their program.
The Toronto Maple Leafs finished sixth overall in the NHL this season, and have a vastly superior roster to both teams currently in the Stanley Cup Final.
While it’s been clear for years to those paying attention to how the salary cap has affected roster construction in the NHL , many (loudly vocal) people still follow the same outdated “five year rebuild” nonsense that hasn’t been relevant in the NHL since the original lockout, back before Sidney Crosby had ever played a game.
Yet I’m still told daily that the Leafs are rebuilding. That “this portion of the rebuild………” Yikes!
While the Leafs have a young core that should allow them to compete for years and years, they still have one year left on the entry-level contracts of Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. That means that they have $20 million in cap space next season that won’t be available the following season.
Add to that one other little under-appreciated fact: Players tend to peak – that is have their highest point totals of their career – somewhere between their third and fifth season. While a player’s prime can last for much longer, there’s a high probability that both Matthews and Marner will have one of (if the not the absolute) best years of their career next season.
The salary cap and biology have combined to make next year the year where the Leafs should be going for it.
Rebuild Over
The Leafs should have tried harder to go for it this season. Had Lou Lamoriello not been in charge, I’m confident Kyle Dubas would have went harder to load up for this year’s playoffs. He’s a numbers guy after-all, and the numbers (the 6th overall and tons of cap space) said they should have.
Regardless, the Toronto Maple Leafs can’t afford to waste another year where they can fit in better players than they should be able to afford. (Because not having to pay full price for Marner and Matthews).
Now, I’m not saying that the Leafs go “all-in” for one run at the Cup. Clearly there is a balance that needs to be achieved. That said, this is a once in a lifetime opportunity. The Leafs will likely go another 30 or 50 years before ever having another Matthews, let alone a Marner ready to peak simultaneously with him.
Two potentially hall of fame, generational players having one of the best seasons of their career while making almost no money against the cap is an opportunity that cannot be squandered. Additionally, Andersen, Kadri, Gardiner, Rielly, are all in their primes. This is the year.
I don’t want to hear about patience, or about the sins of the past. This isn’t impatient, and it’s not got anything to do with the past. This is the obvious conclusion of looking at how the league works with a salary cap, when players statistically peak, and where the Leafs are at right now.
Yes, you’re hoping for a sustainable run of annual competitiveness. But that doesn’t mean you sacrifice a rare situation where you have an incredible advantage.
The easiest way to achieve this is to trade first round picks. Anyone the Leafs pick this year isn’t helping for several seasons. And while it’s important to keep that pipeline flowing, there is also the fact that teams overrate the value of first round picks.
The odds of hitting on a player at 25th overall are less than 50%, where as the odds that you can trade that pick for someone who will help your current roster is about 100%. It’s the definition of a no-brainer.
The Leafs have the AHL’s best team, their core is young, they’ve stockpiled draft picks over the last several years and, despite having all their ‘blue-chip’ players in the NHL, still have one of the best collections of prospects in the league.
There isn’t a team better suited to not miss the draft picks they trade, and there has never been a better time to trade them. Draft picks are currency, and the time for the Toronto Maple Leafs to spend that currency is now.
Next: 2017 Mock Draft: How'd We Do?
The team will never have a better opportunity to build a winning team. The Cap hit for Matthews and Marner is negligible for one more year. The onus for the Leafs to win in that season – or at least try their hardest – cannot be overstated.
So do not expect the Leafs to draft anyone in the first round this season. You can put the probability that they trade that pick in the high 90s.