Toronto Maple Leafs: Andreas Johnsson Contract

Toronto Maple Leafs prospect Andreas Johnsson needs a new contract.

While the Toronto Maple Leafs have to sign Nylander at least, and maybe even Matthews and Marner this summer, Andreas Johnsson has perhaps the most interesting contract situation.

A seventh round pick in 2013, 202nd overall, Johnsson has become one of the Leafs top prospects after breaking out in the AHL.  Unlike most top prospects, Johnsson is already 23, an age when some top prospects are already called busts.

After being drafted, Johnsson played three seasons in Sweden. When he finished his third season in Sweden, he came to the AHL and played two playoff games.  He has played for the Marlies for two seasons since then, and maybe would have won the scoring title this season had he not been called up to the NHL.

In nine regular season games, he scored two goals and a 57% CF. A point per game in the AHL is a big deal, and most players who do that can play in the NHL.  Andreas Johnsson is 23, however, so it’s less impressive than, say, the rate Dylan Staal scored at.   Still good though, and now he’s one of the Leafs top two prospects.

In the playoffs he was also very good.  Starting just 22% of his shifts in the offensive zone, Andreas Johnsson scored a goal and added an assist, put up a 44% CF while playing almost 12 minutes a night in six games this spring in the NHL playoffs. . His speed was noticeable every game, he seemed to play well despite not playing much, and seems clear that is a legitimate NHL player.

The Contract

The Contract is interesting for Johnsson because usually when a team is ready to sign a player to their second contract, that player is clearly an NHL player or a project they’d like to keep on.  Johnsson has only played 15 NHL games, which, without context, doesn’t sound like a very successful draft pick from five years ago.

The context is this: he was a project, they kept him in Sweden for the length of a normal ELC and didn’t sign him until the latest possible date under the rules.  After two years in North America, he’s one of the best players in what is either the second or third best hockey league in the world.  He clearly looks like an NHL player.

The point is, while you could say “I’m not paying X for a guy who is 23 and has played 15 NHL games,” you’d be wrong to do so.  The player was a project, and the project has come to fruition in the best case scenario the Leafs set out on five years ago.

So do they give him a short contract where he can “prove” he’s an NHL player?  Or do they try lock him up longterm on a deal for a number he currently hasn’t come close to earning?

The argument for a cheaper, shorter contract, is that if he is just dominating younger players in the AHL and can’t hack the NHL, you’re not overly committed to him and you take what you can get.   You certainly have weigh the risks of handing out long term contracts which can come back to haunt you.  The drawback is that if he’s scores 30 goals he’s going to ask for $6 million, especially with being a late-bloomer and having less earning years than is standard.

Alternatively, you can bet on your own player.  If the Leafs overpay Johnsson now, if he’s any good, they can get him cheap for the remainder of the contract.  For example, say they pay him $3 million annually over six years.  They get him for his entire prime for $18 million dollars.  It’s unfortunate if he never lives up to the deal, but if he scores 30 goals, you’re getting him for half-price.

Johnsson would likely accept such a deal as well.  He can go out on a one-year show-me contract, get hurt and never earn anything.  Or he can take  a guaranteed $20 million and guaranteed NHL job.  Given the bargaining rights accorded restricted free-agents, he’d be nuts to turn down such a deal.

In a Salary Cap world, teams have to score on value contracts.  If you are getting a 30 goal scorer at half price, you can then afford to upgrade a significant part of your roster somewhere else.  It’s a risky situation for a player who is  a late bloomer.

Having weighed the pros and cons, I believe the risk of getting a 30 goal scorer at half price far outweighs the risk of potentially having to write off $3 million per year.

Next: Is This the Leafs Biggest Off-Season Question?

The Toronto Maple Leafs should try to get Johnsson on a similar deal to Nashville’s Calle Jarnkrok. (Who also signed a late ELC and was an RFA at 23). He makes $2 million annually over six year.  His contract, however, is already in year three, so if the Leafs were to make a similar play, it’d have to be for around $3 instead of two. Also considering Johnsson is probably more highly regarded than Jarnkrok was, despite the similarity of their situations.

The Leafs should sign Johnsson for $3 million over six years.