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Toronto Maple Leafs: How Far From the Stanley Cup?

By James Tanner

NEWARK, NJ - FEBRUARY 24: The Stanley Cup is on display during Patrik Elias Jersey Retirement Night prior to the National Hockey League Game between the New Jersey Devils and the New York Islanders on February 24, 2018, at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
NEWARK, NJ - FEBRUARY 24: The Stanley Cup is on display during Patrik Elias Jersey Retirement Night prior to the National Hockey League Game between the New Jersey Devils and the New York Islanders on February 24, 2018, at the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ. (Photo by Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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The Stanley Cup FInal begins tonight and the Toronto Maple Leafs are not playing.

Of course we know that: the Toronto Maple Leafs lost to the Boston Bruins in game seven about a month ago.

Had the Leafs made it past the Bruins, they would have played the Lightning, and had they beat them, they’d have set up a rematch with the Washington Capitals.

They went into the third period of game seven against Boston with the lead.  In the NHL, you have a roughly 90% chance of winning when you enter the third with the lead.  So the Leafs lost, but they could have easily won with the team that they had.

Since the Leafs are a team on the upswing, and not necessarily built for the now, it’s worth wondering how far off them are from the ultimate goal of winning a Stanley Cup.

When Will the Toronto Maple Leafs Contend?

I should think the answer to that question is obvious: They already are.

The Las Vegas Golden Knights finished fifth overall in the NHL regular season. The Washington Capitals and the Toronto Maple Leafs tied for sixth.

Besides finishing close to the same in the standings as both teams currently in the Stanley Cup Final, the Leafs have a superior roster to both.  Neither Washington nor the Knights were supposed to make it this far.  Certainly no one in their right mind would suggest that either of their rosters are all that good. Whether you’re talking present day or in the future, the Leafs have the better roster.

In fact, the Leafs have one of the best rosters in the NHL.  And they’ve got nearly $30 million in cap space (when the cap goes up), all their draft picks and a ton of assets.

Excepting perhaps the Oilers, no team has a brighter looking future than the Leafs. The Leafs are on the rise only getting better, but they’re already (at worst) the sixth best team in the NHL.

And they did it without Auston Matthews for 25% of the season.  With a little luck, it could easily be the Leafs, and not the Capitals, playing in the Stanley Cup Final tonight.  And they’re almost guaranteed to be better next year.

The Leafs should enter next season as Stanley Cup and  President’s Trophy Contenders.  One of the favorites even.  Of course, we have to see what’s going to happen over the summer. and it’s not like the team doesn’t have holes to fill.

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But be that as it may, the Leafs are about to enter a period in which they are expected to consistently be one of the NHL’s best teams.  It might take a few years until they happen upon the kind of luck Washington and Las Vegas have seen this spring, but they’re definitely just as good as the NHL’s two finalists, and there’s no reason that, one year from now, they aren’t playing for their own Stanley Cup.

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