Toronto Maple Leafs: Marner vs Nylander – Who’s Better?
By James Tanner
The Toronto Maple Leafs have three of the best young forwards in the NHL.
These three player are likely to sign contracts this summer, and debate is raging among Toronto Maple Leafs fans among who is going to get paid what. Interestingly, there seems to be an almost universal opinion that Mitch Marner is better than William Nylander. But is this true?
I honestly don’t think it is.
Now, I say that as a huge Mitch Marner fan. As someone who thinks Mitch Marner is a sure fire Hall of Famer, Team Canada Member and future Hart and Art Ross winner. I just think that William Nylander is every bit as good.
The comparison is tricky because Nylander is one year older and he started his NHL career with a 20 game trial run that Marner didn’t get. But let’s just go ahead and compare them anyway, and I’ll leave it up to you guys to consider how much weight to put on those preceding facts.
The purpose of this article is just to illustrate that Nylander deserves whatever contract Marner gets.
Marner vs Nylander
Rookie Years:
Marner : 19 goals 42 assists 61 points.
Nylander: 22 goals 39 assists 61 points.
That’s pretty even, so let’s break it down with some more advanced stats.
Marner 5v5 : 50.17 CF% 38 pts 12% shooting 2.18 p/60 102 PDO
Nylander 5v5 : 52.51 CF% 31 pts 8% shooting 1.77 p/60 99 PDO
Both players had amazing rookie years. Adjusting for the luck of shooting percentage, they’re almost identical. One big difference, however, is that Nylander played with Matthews, which is advantageous in one way, but also means he faces much tougher competition game to game. Marner was and has been a much more sheltered player.
Sophomore Year
In their sophomore year is where the team players supposedly diverged. I don’t think this is really the case, but let’s check it out.
Marner: 22 goals 47 assists 69 points.
Nylander: 20 goals 41 assists 61 points.
And the more advanced stats:
Marner 5v5: 51.8% CF 37 pts 10% shooting 2.03 P/60 101 PDO
Nylander 5v5: 50.1% CF 45 pts 9 % shooting 2.38 P/60 105 PDO
Here we see the two players being pretty much even again. Nylander scores a bit more, but he was a bit luckier because Matthews helps him rack up the assists. Marner is more sheltered, Nylander plays tougher minutes, but everything pretty much evens out.
Conclusion
Mitch Marner is the flashier player. He’s the hometown kid. He does something at least once every game that you remember. But the stats don’t paint him as a better player than Nylander.
Nylander is a more versatile player (he’s lined up at centre) and he plays a quieter game, but the stats say it’s just as good. He probably also is better defensively and doesn’t have to be sheltered.
People have told me that Nylander ‘disappears’ but to me this comes off as typical bias against european players, and people seeing what they want to (confirmation bias).
If Nylander were anymore consistent, we’d be debating if he should get the same money as Matthews, not Marner.
I could see paying Marner slightly more because he is one year younger, and so a you’d be buying up an extra year of his prime, but otherwise, these are two guys who deserve the exact same contract.
To say that one is better than the other ignores the evidence. I will, however, say this: Marner is so flashy that it’s possible he takes a giant step forward. I’m not saying that he won’t eventually be the better player.
All I am saying, is that based on their first two years, they’re pretty much equal.
Next: They Could Have Been Legends vol 1
One final fun stat: Nylander was tied for 22 in 5v5 points, overall. If you include all the ties, he had the 11th highest 5v5 totals.