Are you, perchance, worried about the future success of the Toronto Maple Leafs?
Well, don’t be.
Last night, the Toronto Marlies put the finishing touches on their Eastern Conference Final sweep of the Lehigh Valley Phantoms, advancing to the Calder Cup Final. At this point, victories in the vein of Friday’s 3-1 final should be expected.
The last time the Marlies lost was April 27th.
Said defeat came all the way back in round one, at the hands of a desperate Utica Comets contingent. With their backs to the wall, the Comets clobbered the Marlies 5-2 on home ice. In the process, exposing every hole hidden throughout Toronto’s roster.
It was the Andreas Johnsson, Travis Dermott-lacking Marlies who wore that defeat. A team still agonizing over whether slotting Kyle Baun or Pierre Engvall onto the 3rd line’s left wing was the best avenue to victory.
It was immediately following that loss when their big guns returned.
In the 9 games since, the Marlies are – you guessed it – 9-0. As my good friend Jeff Veillette pointed out, their ensuing dominance is unlike anything we’ve never seen.
Holy mama.
Now, the Marlies enter their first appearance in the Calder Cup Final since 2012 coming off consecutive series sweeps, while holding a postseason record of 11-2.
Praise for their undeniably consistent success can rightfully be placed upon a number of desrving shoulders.
None more deserving, however, than Kyle Dubas’.
It was Dubas who padded this roster with underappreciated assets, assets who flourished in clearly defined roles. It was Dubas as well who weathered losing nearly the entirety of his lineup’s offensive core mid-season via the tapping of market inefficiencies to bring in young, skilled reinforcements without the expenditure of assets.
Yes, it was Dubas who built these Marlies. Below are a select few examples of how he did it.
The Veterans
In an earlier feature on Vincent LoVerde, I briefly touched upon the Marlies’ internal leadership core comprised of a defined group of 5 veterans.
Ben Smith, Rich Clune, Chris Mueller, Colin Greening and the aforementioned LoVerde serve as the elder statesmen tasked with steering the ship. And, on a team so infused with young talent, these veterans are undeniably vital to its success.
That being said, it just so happens that Dubas is responsible for either acquiring or maintaining the services of each one.
Perhaps the best example of his skills as a talent evaluator can be found in his risky decision to bring back the captain, Smith.
Re-Signing Ben Smith
12 months ago, re-signing Smith was far from a no-brainer.
The 29-year-old was coming off a dreadful stint as the Leafs 4th line centre, hampered by repeated and inescapable injury. Frankly, I criticized the move myself, wondering just where Smith would find room on a sure-to-be loaded Marlies roster.
Well, it’s a good thing I’m not in charge of these decisions.
In bringing Smith back into the fold, Dubas flexed his most sculpted intellectual muscles. That being the ability to accurately identify the hidden value within Smith, value invisible to the majority of fans and team personnel.
Injuries aside, Smith struggled in the role of Leafs bottom-line pivot because it simply was not the role best suited for his success. Unbeknownst at the time, there exists underlying offensive capability in Smith. It just simply could not be tapped as a fringe option.
Would he ever fill a different role in the NHL? Likely not. With that knowledge, Dubas instead chose to give it to him at the level below.
Added Value
Wielding his organization’s vast financial might, Dubas inked Smith to a 1-year, $650,000 contract.
Paying him well above what typical AHL producers receive, Dubas was able to add a veteran centre with NHL experience, hidden offensive talent, and a versatile skill set to an expectedly youthful roster.
It paid off.
In 2017-18, Smith led the Marlies in both goals and points. His 32 assists placing a near second behind fellow veteran Mueller’s 33. Logging minutes on all four lines, Smith entrenched himself as a staple on both the top PP and PK units.
Two months into the season, Sheldon Keefe named him Marlies captain.
In fact, rookie centre Adam Brooks credits Smith with helping him find his offensive touch during a brief period when the two were linemates in March.
Simply put, the Marlies would not be where they are without Dubas recouping any of the core’s veterans.
Especially if he chose to pass on finding hidden value in a journeyman centre pushing 30.
Acting Quickly
Amateur Tryout Offers and Professional Tryout Offers are two rare instances where AHL GM’s exhibit an advantage over their NHL counterparts.
And, if one thing has become abundantly clear about Dubas, it’s that he milks every single advantage at his disposal to the very last drop.
(Now, THAT’S some pleasant imagery).
Over the course of the regular season, the Marlies lost key contributors in Kasperi Kapanen, Dermott, Johnsson, Kerby Rychel, Rinat Valiev and Nikita Soshnikov. Between them, the 6 combined for a total of 62 goals, 96 assists and 158 points. Production which simply vanished from the Marlies roster along with them.
To the average GM, losses of such magnitude are crippling. Luckily, Dubas is not an average GM.
One thing which really stood out to me in Justin Bourne’s early-May piece on Dubas for The Athletic is how quickly Dubas acts to improve his roster. When a positional hole presented itself, Dubas plugged it almost immediately via trade, signing or waivers.
Well, that’s exactly what he did here.
Springing into action, Dubas identified the use of tryout offers as a market inefficiency, avenues he could exploit to bring in cheap, young talent at no cost, be it financial or term.
For a plethora of reasons, those tryout offers saved the Marlies’ season.
PTO’s
The PTO additions were relatively obvious. Primarily consisting of Leafs prospects whose seasons overseas had come to an end, these newcomers were technically “in-house” prior to their arrival.
Considering his mammoth production now, it’s funny to reflect on just how risky it was to bring Pierre Engvall over in March.
At that point, the clock was ticking rather loudly on the former-7th rounder’s rights, with the Leafs in danger of losing him if they forwent offering him an ELC prior to the June 1st deadline.
Not to mention, Engvall had only just recovered from a traumatic injury suffered in Sweden. This left no guarantee of him adequately producing in the presence of elevated competition.
Still, Dubas saw the talent in Engvall. Believing him to be capable of somewhat recouping the Maries’ lost offence.
Well, bringing Engvall and Carl Grundstrom over from the SHL gave the Marlies a semblance of their departed offensive punch. Both players finished their regular season stints at a point-per-game or above clip. As they now currently find similar success in the postseason.
Jesper Lindgren, a fellow PTO addition, brought his 4-game stint to a decidedly more muted end. The former-4th round pick struggled in his brief minutes. And, rightly so. Hiccups were to be expected from a 20-year-old Swedish D prospect tasked with adjusting to North American ice on the fly.
Lindgren may not have replaced the Valiev and Dermott-sized hole by any stretch.
What he did prove, however, is capable of adapting to the professional game. A trait which earned him an ELC in the process.
ATO’s
Yet, it was the ATO signees, along with one under-the-radar PTO, who showed just how deep this avenue could run.
It’s not controversial to assert that the Leafs are arguably the richest franchise in the NHL. Such wealth means they should possess the necessary resources to have eyes in every single hockey market under the sun. Even, and especially, the more unconventional ones.
With his ATO signings, Dubas proved that in spades.
Josh Kestner, brought in on March 8th, is a product of the NCAA’s University of Huntsville-Alabama. Derian Plouffe, signed on the same day, tore scoresheets up for Niagara University. 10 days later, Scott Pooley entered Ricoh Coliseum following 4 seasons with Church of the Holy Cross. And finally came Robert Morris University’s Brady Ferguson.
Each player hails from a market few would classify as conventional.
And while they only experienced brief stints in Marlies blue, their respective additions helped successfully bridge the lineup’s gap between infusions of talent.
Together, Plouffe, Pooley, Kestner and Ferguson posted a combined total of 9 points in 23 games. Certainly not eye-popping, but valuable nonetheless. That said, their presence and ability to assume nearly any role lessened the burden weighing on the Marlies’ mainstays.
This is especially important, considering their arrivals came at a period in the schedule where fatigue rears its ugly head.
To optimize his roster’s production, Dubas added four versatile, capable assets, for no cost, during the time where the majority of AHL teams regularly fight through exhaustion to results of regression.
It’s not a shock to point out that all but one of those teams are currently on vacation, while the Marlies extend their season into mid-June.
One By One
These are all far from flashy moves.
None are headline grabbers representing lunging swings for the fences. Such incremental additions refuse to sacrifice future success for present gain.
Why choose between the two when you can achieve both?
Without Ben Smith, the Marlies enter the season lacking a pillar of both special teams units and their leading point scorer. Were Pierre Engvall left to train with his club team, a point-per-game prospect is almost certainly lost for nothing.
And, if a foursome of swiss army knife NCAA products aren’t pillaged from their respectively neglected divisions, who knows what becomes of an exhausted Marlies lineup struggling for months to recapture the production ripped from their ranks unexpectedly.
In fact, Kyle Dubas did not just build a roster that sits four wins from Calder Cup glory.
Next: Kyle Dubas and Hidden Talent
He laid a foundation upon which repeated success can be achieved as hands over the reigns in the fall.