Toronto Maple Leafs: Hard Pass on Tavares

Should the Toronto Maple Leafs pursue John Tavares?

The Toronto Maple Leafs are probably going to pursue John Tavares on July first when he becomes an unrestricted free agent.  Logic suggests as much, since they are known to have pursued Steven Stamkos under similar conditions a couple of years ago.

But should they? I wrote a few weeks ago that if I was a betting man, I would bet that the Leafs would win the Tavares sweepstakes.  I still think they’ll pitch him, and I still think that Tavares would be open to coming here.  But is it a good idea?

I’m starting to think that it isn’t.

Tavares will be 28 to start this season, and seven year deal takes him through his age 35 season.  Considering players tend to peak at age 23 or 24, and start to heavily decline as they approach 30, it doesn’t seem like a smart move to pay Tavares’ name-brand price when what you’re unlikely to get his best years.

Sign Tavares and trade Nylander for a defenseman.  That’s what everyone says.  But Nylander’s best days are ahead of him.  Tavare’s aren’t.  And sure, the Leafs need a defensman this year, but does it make sense to make a move with seven year ramifications because you need something now?

With Dermott, Rielly and Liljegren, it’s not like the Leafs have a bleak future on the blue line.

And just how good is Tavares? William Nylander arguably had a better first two years than Tavares did. So with him Nylander improving and Tavares declining, how many years until Nylander is better? Two ? Three? Maybe even one.

Matthews missed a quarter of the season, and he only missed Tavares’ career high goal total by four.  (JT Played 82 games that year). In ten seasons, Tavares has topped 80 points just three times.  He is extremely likely to already have had his career best season.  He’s expensive, forces roster changes that the team wouldn’t otherwise make, and his acquisition doesn’t really address the fact that, while talented, the Leafs forward group is among the worst in the NHL at defending.

I think the money you could allot to Tavares would be better spent getting Nylander on a nice fat eight year deal, in the $8/$8.5 range.  Tavares is the sexy pick, but he’s not the smart play.

Considering the Toronto Maple Leafs have a roster you wouldn’t swap straight up with any other team in hockey, are under no pressure to sell tickets, or advertising, or get better TV ratings and already have three quality centres on the roster (or for half the price could go for a more defensive oriented guy like Jordan Staal), I see no reason why they should pursue Tavares.

For me, I’d let another team blow their salary cap out of whack overpaying for the name brand guy.

Next: The Leafs UFA Defensive Options

Stamkoes is a superior player to Tavares and based on his age and salary, I’m already kind of glad the Leafs failed to sign him.  That’s a hard pass for me.