An English prospect has been turning heads with astounding numbers, but much of his potential is still a mystery. Should the Toronto Maple Leafs take a chance on him?
Liam Kirk is an 18 year old, draft eligible prospect playing in the EIHL (the top level of UK hockey). His impressive numbers earned him an invitation to the NHL scouting combine, a privilege usually reserved for 100 or so of the top young players. This, even though many scouts and scouting services leave Kirk outside of their top 100 and often the top 200. Could the Toronto Maple Leafs take a chance with a late pick?
Kirk has been putting up incredible numbers for years now. During his time in England’s under 16 league, he posted a staggering 111 points in just 33 games. Following his U16 seasons, he moved on to U18, posting 108 points in 27 games. 64 of those points were goals. At just 16 years old, Kirk then played at the U20 level. This appeared to be no challenge for the underaged forward as he would would register 44 points in 10 games.
After captaining the U18 Great Britain team on two occasions, Kirk has stayed above a point per game at the international level. He even played with Great Britain’s men’s team in Division 1A at the World Championships this past year.
Following his junior success, he graduated to the EIHL where he played with the Sheffield Steelers. This is where concern grew. Kirk failed to record a point in his rookie season after a 19 game campaign. His struggles called for a loan to the lower level EPIHL, where his rapid point production resumed. He seems to have found his footing in a men’s league and has since put up respectable numbers for his age.
Kirk has also appeared in many other leagues and tournaments, so I suggest you check out his EliteProspects page.
The Mystery
Despite his impressive point production, Liam Kirk has not drawn great interest. Like many smaller leagues around the world, it is difficult to determine how his play compares to the leagues we are more familiar with. Many claim that the lower quality of competition inflates his numbers and makes him appear to be a better player.
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These smaller leagues also have essentially no statistics to compare them to North American leagues. NHLe (NHL equivalency) is a common stat used with junior players. The stat attempts to determine how much a point in other leagues is worth in comparison to the NHL. This, however, is virtually useless in this case. Even working backwards to find a CHL equivalent is near impossible. This is because of how uncommon it is for players in leagues, such as the EIHL, to come to North America.
Regardless of the competition, many claim that Kirk possesses the skill set needed to play at a higher level and can be developed in the future.
Would Drafting Him Be Justifiable?
Although listed only as a forward, Kirk is often put in the role of centre. This may be where the Leafs would need him to play, as organizational depth at centre is lacking. This, however, is a big obstacle. Being thrown into the role of centre isn’t easy. Add in the difficult adjustment to North American ice, and this will not be an easy task.
Hi everyone,
— Sean Tierney (@ChartingHockey) April 28, 2018
Tonight is the draft lottery and it really is important. Values drop hard within the first 10-15 picks before leveling out in the mid-20s. From there, there's basically no difference from one pick to the next until the end of the draft. pic.twitter.com/DelczKaBf6
Kirk is likely to be a late round gamble. Teams with a variety of late round picks may decide to use a pick on him. Sean Tierney provides us with a chart displaying the estimated value of draft picks through the rounds. Pictured above, the graphic shows little difference in value between picks after the third round. So it may be worth a try.
The Toronto Maple Leafs, however, are limited to seven picks, and their scouting department has a knack for late round picks and may feel they can do more with them.
So what do you think? Would you be comfortable with the Leafs drafting Liam Kirk, and if so, in what round?
Stats courtesy of EliteProspects.com