Toronto Maple Leafs: Kyle Dubas and Hidden Talent
When Kyle Dubas was introduced as General Manager of the Toronto Maple Leafs on Friday morning, it was a content gold mine.
Perhaps the most illuminating and informative piece to stem from the announcement came by way of The Athletic’s Justin Bourne.
Bourne, who served as the Toronto Marlies’ video coach until 2017, possess a unique inside perspective on both the team and, by extension, their recently-promoted GM.
Now, I am by no means anywhere near Bourne’s level. Not in a professional sense, and certainly not in a talent sense either. In fact, I’d assert that Bourne is maybe the best sports writer currently operating within the Toronto hockey bubble.
Given his past employment history, along with an ingrained talent as a writer, his insight is unmatched.
That said, I have, however, been afforded the opportunity to be around the Marlies in a fairly intimate capacity all season long. While working the beat, I’ve been able to chart the team’s progression on a game-by-game basis, while observing their various intricacies. And, as the season comes to a close, I feel I’ve had a large enough sample size to make an accurate assessment.
Quite frankly, what Dubas has managed to accomplish with the Toronto Marlies is astonishing.
So, with him now in charge of the big club, I thought I’d share what I’ve seen to be Dubas’ most valuable talent as an executive.
Unheralded Talent
You didn’t really think I’d neglect to mention Trevor Moore in this, did you? I thought you all knew me better than that.
Anyway, within the next year or two, the Leafs will find themselves in a cap crunch.
Thanks to the inevitably-lucrative extensions on the horizon for the Big Three™, cheap talent will be crucial to the team’s sustained success.
Which makes it a good thing that Dubas’ biggest strength at every level he’s been at, especially the Marlies, is identifying said talent in unconventional places.
Marlies defenceman Justin Holl, for example, is living proof of this.
Holl played a full 4 years in the NCAA, with another in the ECHL, before being cut loose in 2014 by the Chicago Blackhawks organization.
That’s when Dubas swooped in and snatched him up.
Development
Identifying just how crucial a talented, puck-moving RHD is, Dubas took a chance on a perceived bust in Holl, using the organization’s vast financial might to its advantage in the process.
As an AHL rookie, Holl put up 21 points in 60 games the very next season.
Now, three years later, Holl stands as an AHL All-Star who earned himself an NHL call-up this season, where he currently averages a goal-per-game. (Yes, I know he only played 2 games. It’s just fun to say).
In this case of Moore, he walked into the Leafs 2016 development camp as an undrafted no-name. Over the course of a weekend, he seemingly showed Dubas enough to warrant an ELC. Two years later, Moore leads the AHL in playoff points while simultaneously garnering serious buzz as an outside threat to crack the Leafs at some point in the next year.
And then there’s Mason Marchment.
Like Moore, Marchment is a talented, albeit devastatingly raw winger. After passing through undrafted, Marchment bounced around the OHL as an over-ager until eventually landing himself on Dubas’ radar in 2015-16.
Sensing long-term potential in the then-21-year-old, Dubas took the scenic route with Marchment’s development. The latter played just 3 games for the Marlies that year and just 9 in 2016-17, the majority of his time coming in the ECHL.
It was in Orlando where Marchment’s talent shone through, to the tune of 20 points in 35 games.
As a full-time Marlie this season, Marchment had himself a coming out party. 26 points in 44 games as a rookie on the fourth line is impressive nonetheless. In fact, that total would’ve likely been even higher were it not for some unfortunate injury luck.
On March 17th, the Leafs signed Marchment to an ELC.
Market Inefficiencies
Holl, Moore and Marchment are just three examples who happen to be on the latter half of their development curve. Over at the other end, Dubas has successfully identified both ATO’s and PTO’s as market inefficiencies, weaponizing them as a means of crafting depth.
Such a method was glaringly apparent late in 2017-18, as the Marlies signed a whopping 8 players to either professional or amateur tryouts offers.
The beauty in PTO’s and ATO’s lies in just how little risk is attached to them. Because the offers are classified as “tryouts”, players can be released from them at any time, with little to no repercussions.
Best case, you find a hidden gem and ink him further. Worst case, you cut bait with clean hands.
Of this current haul, a few names stood out.
Brady Ferguson, a centre from Robert Morris University, is 24-years-old. Ferguson is almost certainly absent from GM’s radars league-wide, despite posting gaudy numbers in NCAA Div.1. Dubas brought Ferguson to the Marlies via an ATO on March 21st, hoping for a peek into his hidden talent.
He didn’t disappoint.
In only 5 games, Ferguson registered 4 points while operating as a surprisingly adept power play weapon. He didn’t look at all out of place at the professional level. And, the immediate responsibility handed to him by Sheldon Keefe leads me to believe the Marlies will bring him back this summer.
There’s also Ferguson’s fellow NCAA ATO signees Josh Kestner, Derian Plouffe and Scott Pooley who made positive impressions as well.
Will either of them ever crack the NHL? Honestly, probably not. But regardless, they do serve as examples of Dubas using creative means to obtain potentially talented depth.
Creative Thinking
Which leads us to the culmination of Dubas’ knack for identifying talent.
In an organization as financially blessed as the Leafs, there’s simply no reason for them to not have their hands in every single cookie jar. They certainly have the means for it.
As Bourne mentions in his piece, Dubas spends nearly the entirety of his day watching hockey, be it in person or on video. He’s aware of every hockey market housed within every city, constantly hunting for unidentified prey.
This, my friends, will save the Leafs in the years to come.
Teams such as the Pittsburgh Penguins have been wise to this formula for years, paying huge dividends for them in the shape of consecutive Stanley Cups. With Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang on high-priced deals, the Pens needed to surround their expensive stars with cheap, effective talent.
Well, Matt Murray is an NCAA product. As is Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel. Connor Sheary came over on a PTO. Each player mentioned above now serves as an integral piece on the roster of a back-to-back champion.
If the Leafs aspire to achieve similar success, they’ll need to follow that same path. In fact, they may be further along than we think.
With Roman Polak (hopefully) leaving, Holl could very likely crack the lineup as the 3rd pairing right D. And while Polak didn’t all that make much, Holl’s 2017-18 cap hit came in at a mere $650,000. A pending UFA, his next contract will all but certainly fall in the same ballpark.
In addition, were Moore to play games for the Leafs next season, he’ll earn a paltry $925,000. For Marchment, his price tag tops out even lower, at $767,000.
That’s a grand total of just $2.3 million tied up in three distinct roster pieces whose trajectory is only pointing skyward.
Outlook
Amidst all the hoopla surrounding Dubas’ age, the focus should instead be shifted towards his unique and cutting-edge modus operandi.
It takes just one look at the Marlies for even the most casual observer to glimpse his already-impressive resume. Not to mention with an entire pipeline quietly operating deep under the surface.
Really, it shouldn’t matter whether Dubas is 32 or 92. If he can accurately identify market inefficiencies well before his peers and then use them to strengthen the Toronto Maple Leafs, all while avoiding salary cap penalties, then he’s qualified.
Period.
So far, that’s exactly what Dubas has accomplished. And he’s only getting started.
Next: The Unheralded Trevor Moore
Thanks for reading!