Auston Matthews Getting the BAD MEDIA TREATMENT
By James Tanner
Of course it wouldn’t be summer without a Toronto Maple Leafs themed soap opera. Superstar Centre Auston Matthews is right in the middle of it.
For a while, we were so enamored with our new toys that we forgot about the drama. The Days of Our Leafs has been on hiatus since Phil Kessel chocked back his last T.O hotdog. But since there’s nothing better to do, it’s time to revive the series. Time to make a bid deal about Auston Matthews and his relationship with Mike Babcock.
I don’t really care if Babcock and Matthews get along. How many people do you know that like their boss? Do then still go to work everyday? How many 20 year-olds like to listen to their dads? How many of those 20 year-olds are millionaires? How many spent their teen years as local celebrities? If Auston Matthews and Mike Babcock don’t get along, I could not care less. Guess what? They’re both going to be in Toronto for a long time.
But if I know anything about the media, I can tell you this with 99.9% certainty: a small problem that will be easily overcome has been blown way the hell out of proportion.
The problem I have has nothing to do with the drama. It has to do with how lazy people are about the myths they perpetuate.
This morning, due to the drama and some lazy results based reporting, some fairly famous writer wrote that if Austom Matthews wants to be treated like a superstar, he should play like one in the playoffs.
Another article, this one more local, wrote about how Babcock should start playing Matthews like a superstar. That he should give him better linemates and more ice time. Again, the laziness with which people are drawing these conclusions is laughable.
I’m going to now show you how both these narratives are wrong.
Matthews under-performed in the Playoffs.
This is not remotely true. Yes, his actual results were not that good, but if we dig deeper, we see that he actually had a very good series against the Bruins.
Despite facing Zedeno Chara for nearly every shift (about 65% of the time) and going head-to-head against the best line in the NHL, Matthews finished the series above 50% in possession and was a 56% player in game seven.
Over the course of the series, he averaged almost four shots per game. Yes, had only one goal and one assist over seven games. Yes, those are bad results. But remember this: If you post over a 50% CF for the season and average almost four shots per game, you are likely to finish with over 40 goals and be one of the top volume shooters in the entire league.
We know that results fluctuate randomly. We know that players have no control over their shooting percentage. Matthews simply had unlucky results that came from a combination of facing better than usual goaltending and better than usual defense.
So while the results were bad, if you replayed that series a hundred times, you’d almost never see Matthews finish with only two points. I have no problem with the average fan who bases his analysis on results only, but a paid analyst with a huge platform should be able to dig a little deeper.
One more point on this topic: we aren’t even accounting for what Matthews did for the rest of the team by taking 65% of Chara’s ice time, and matching up mostly against Bergeron. This allows the entire rest of the team to get easier competition. If Matthews can get almost four shots per game against the best defensive combo in hockey, what is he going to do to the kind of competition Marner was playing against?
2. Babcock is Hurting Matthews w/ Ice Time and Line-Mates
This one drives me nuts because at least basing your analysis on results is an understandable mistake. This is just an egregiously lazy conclusion to draw.
Everyone points to the fact that Matthews was 41st in the NHL in ice-time per game for centres as proof that Babcock is insane. If, however, you look into it a bit, this is a pretty reasonable way to allot ice-time.
Auston Matthews is the tenth most used centre in the NHL at 5v5. If you account for the fact that he came back from three separate injuries, and so probably was eased in a few times, you can reasonably assume that if he was healthy all year, he’d be higher than tenth.
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For a player like Matthews, 5v5 hockey is where he brings the biggest edge to his team. What makes players like Matthews special is their ability to create room at even-strength. On the power-play, this is somewhat neutralized because everyone has room and thus his main skill is negated. For proof of this concept, just look at how for two years on the PP Bozak has put up similar per/minute offensive numbers as Matthews. This is one example and far from conclusive, but if you look into it, there’s always a surprising number of OK players putting up superstar powerplay numbers.
Therefore, playing Matthews where he makes the biggest difference makes sense. Also, playing him less allows him to stay fresh. If you don’t need to skate your star players into the ground because you have a deep team, why would you?
Most coaches would probably give Auston Matthews the full two minutes on the PP, but then you’re playing 5v5 without him. Also, the Leafs number-one PP unit was the best in the NHL, and despite missing nearly 25% of the season, Matthews almost led the league in 5v5 goal scoring, so clearly this strategy was working.
As for linemates, anyone who knows anything about Babcock knows that he believes in balanced lines instead of loading up. Sure, you could play Marner with Matthews, but Marner was the one of the best players in the NHL from Christmas on playing with Kadri, so why mess with it? It’s not like Nylander is a slouch. People rate Marner higher, but again, with Auston Matthews and Nylander playing the toughest minutes, Marner ends up looking better because he’s a first line player exploiting second line player.
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The Babcock and Matthews drama is silly, but it’s not as bad as saying making lazy analysis. Matthews gets an appropriate amount of ice time. There is nothing wrong with setting your lines to take advantage of your depth (and the Leafs were tied for sixth overall). And, the most important thing: Matthews played well in the playoffs.