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Toronto Maple Leafs: Avoid John Carlson, Mike Green in Free Agency

By Eduardo Razo |
DETROIT, MI - NOVEMBER 18: Mike Green #25 of the Detroit Red Wings controls the puck in the corner in front of John Carlson #74 of the Washington Capitals during an NHL game at Joe Louis Arena on November 18, 2015 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images)
DETROIT, MI - NOVEMBER 18: Mike Green #25 of the Detroit Red Wings controls the puck in the corner in front of John Carlson #74 of the Washington Capitals during an NHL game at Joe Louis Arena on November 18, 2015 in Detroit, Michigan. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images)

The Toronto Maple Leafs need to avoid upgrading their defense with Free Agents.

Free-agency is not a viable source for the Toronto Maple Leafs to address their issues on defense. Using Cap Friendly, it gives the names of defensemen, particularly right-handed, who are hitting the open market this summer. The two names that will garner the most interest from teams are John Carlson and Mike Green; both defensemen would fill a dire need on the right side of Toronto’s blue line.

Although it’s tempting to want Toronto to flex their financial muscle, the situation isn’t an ideal one for the organization. First and foremost, overpaying and free-agency are synonymous with each other; which will result in Carlson and Green making more money than they’re worth.

Both players have incredible talent and are an upgrade for what’s on the right-side; however, unless either comes on a reasonable contract. It’s hard to justify either taking a good portion of Toronto’s salary cap. Especially with William Nylander needing a new deal this summer.

Last summer, Kevin Shattenkirk was the prize free-agent defensemen, signing a four-year $26.6M contract with the New York Rangers. Rumors suggest that Shattenkirk was eyeing a move to the Big Apple and even leaving money on the table to make sure he became a Ranger.

The reason for Shattenkirk taking a discount is because he’s from the state of New York. With no connection to Toronto; will Carlson or Green give a discount to join what the team is building or will management shell out the dollars to address the most significant issue?

What the Numbers Say About Carlson

If Toronto sees Carlson as a fit, regardless of the money he’ll command, then it’s a good idea to dive into what kind of defensemen he is. In 82 games this season, the 28-year-old had less than desirable 49.2% Corsi-For. Meaning that the Washington Capitals were chasing the puck.

Even with his below average CF%, Washington generated more shots while Carlson is on the ice with a 1.7 CF% rel. This stat, however, is an anomaly for him, as his CF% rel over the last five seasons are -4.8, -1.1, -1.0, and -1.6.

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Toronto will need to tread lightly around a defenseman that tends to cause their team to face more shots. HockeyViz provides a visual that illustrates the problematic season for Carlson when it came to allowing shots.

With Carlson on the ice, teams may tend to see more shots, but he does well in controlling the blue line. He can successfully exit his end and enter the opponent’s zone; which is something Toronto’s defensemen had issues with this past season.

Carlson is a gifted offensive defenseman who can’t defend.  The Leafs – with Rielly, Gardiner, Dermott and, eventually, Liljegren – have a ton of puck mobility and offense from the backend. They are not in need of a one-dimensional offense-only defenseman.

What the Numbers Say About Green

Green is a cheaper option than Carlson but has his warts on defense as well. His CF% isn’t any better than Carlson’s with 47.8%. Also, like Washington, the Detroit Red Wings face more shots while Green was on the ice with his CF% rel -1.2 this season. HockeyViz displays a heat map that illustrates this notion.

In his first season with Detroit, Green rarely started in his end with a defensive zone start of 29.5%. As the team began to plummet and go younger, Jeff Blashill relied on him more; which is why his dSZ% has gone up over the past two seasons to 48.1 and 45.6 respectively.

One look at his dSZ% can fool a team, so it’s important to put the numbers into context. The two seasons in which Green saw his defensive ice time increase, Detroit saw more shots at their net. In his first season, when Blashill limited his dSZ%, the team fired more shots towards their opponents net as Green had a CF% rel of 6.1.

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Toronto already has enough defensemen that can contribute on the offensive end. Green may add to the team’s offense but is a defensive liability. The team needs defensemen that can play in both ends and these options aren’t available in free agency.

The Toronto Maple Leafs should pass on both players.

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