The Toronto Maple Leafs lost to the Bruins in game seven.
I’m over it though. The Toronto Maple Leafs are a team on the rise, and the Bruins are a great team. No reason to be upset – life goes on and the Leafs are in a better spot then they’ve ever been in, as a franchise, since at least as far back as I can remember.
So with that in mind, let’s take a little look at the first round stats and see what we can learn.
First thing to keep in mind, before we begin, is that in a seven game series, the sample size is extremely small. It doesn’t necessary mean that’s what would happen if extended out over a full season – in seven games, one game can skew things wildly.
While stats in a seven game series might not be very predictive, the definitely show what happened, so they are still useful.
Round 1 Stats
Overall, the Bruins had a 52.3 Corsi-For as a team. The Leafs were 47.7%.
This probably seems closer than it really was. Anything over 50% significantly improves a team’s chances of winning, and considering the scale is very small (you almost never see a long term CF% above 60 or below 40), 52 to 48 is a big advantage.
We knew going in that this would be a problem for the Leafs – they simply allow too many chances and rely on their stacked offense to score them out of trouble. As the team ages, learns and matures (plus adds new players) they will become better at driving possession, which will allow them to win more games when Andersen isn’t on fire.
Overall, the Bruins had the edge in shot-attempts 352 to 321.
The Bruins outshot the Leafs 195 to 162, and had more scoring chances as well, by a count of 177-167.
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If we look at PDO (save and shot percentage added together, which indicates luck because the number will always be at 100 over the long term) we see that the Bruins were slightly luckier than the Leafs.
Don’t read too much into that though, as it’s a short sample. The Bruins were just slightly above 100 while the Leafs were slightly below.
The Bruins had a 91.36 save % and the Leafs had a 90.77%. Both starting goalies were pulled once, and while Rask was good at times, Andersen was the deciding factor in this series – he stole two games, and arguably blew two games.
Both teams received even goaltending and had roughly even shooting percentages. The series really came down to the fact that Boston had the puck more and dictated the pace of the games.
For the Toronto Maple Leafs, there is lots to learn from this series, and their experience going forward will be valuable. It’s sucks to lose, especially when it’s only by inches.