Toronto Maple Leafs: Narrative of Matthews Play Pure Myth

The Toronto Maple Leafs went to game seven against one of the NHL’s best teams.

It was a miraculous comeback, a highly entertaining series and the beginning of what potentially could be a really great run for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Sidney Crosby didn’t make the Playoffs in year one, and he was out in the first round as a sophomore. So despite hype, expectations and disappointment, I think it’s safe to say that the Leafs – with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner in their second years – are doing fine.

Last year, they almost beat the Capitals in the first round. Last year’s Capitals were an all-time great roster that was miles above anyone else in the league. This year, the Bruins were probably the best team in the NHL when you consider they played about a quarter of their games without Bergeron and missed first overall by five points.

So for the Leafs to lose is fine. I wanted them to win, but generally speaking, teams that were in last place two years ago aren’t supposed to have instant success and beat the best team in the NHL in the first round.

Two seasons, two near-victories against hockey’s two best teams, and a very reasonable shot at being superior to either of the teams that beat them, in the near future.

So why is everyone playing the blame game and being so harsh?

You don’t have to pin this loss on anyone. It’s not Jake Gardiner’s fault the goalie let in one-third of the shots he faced while Gardiner was on the ice. You could play a 100 games as the worst player in the NHL and that would never happen. It’s not Babcock’s fault he didn’t play the exact lines you want him to. Splitting up your superstars is proven winning strategy. Complaining about Auston Matthews? Weak.

Auston Matthews

It’s interesting to note that the Leafs took the Bruins to the brink without any results-based contributions from their leading scorer and best player.

But we need to remember that if you play well, there is no guarantee that you score – actual goals are mathematically random, which is why people put so much stock into the probabilities of shot-attempts.

In last nights game, Auston Matthews was a 56% possession player who took four shots.

Possession-wise, if you were a 56% player, you’d be at or among the best in the NHL. If you got four shots per game, you’d be third in the NHL in shots. Essentially, if you did what Matthews did last night, and you did it every night for 82 games, you’d score 45 goals and be the best player in hockey.

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The fact that he didn’t score is just random bad luck that happens in a small sample sized.

In one of the all-time worst hockey takes anyone has ever made, Nick Kypreos said that “Matthews lost Babcock’s trust,” even though in seven games Matthews led the Leafs forwards in ice-time. Fact check says: Kypreos is wrong.

Matthews played 108 minutes of 5v5 hockey over seven games. For 70 of those minutes, he had to face Zedeno Chara. In four of the games, when Boston was home and had last line change, Matthews had to face the league’s best line.

But he still finished the series a 50% player. (Whenever Matthews managed to get away from Marchand, he went from a 41% to a 56% possession rating). He finished leading the Leafs in shots with 27.

Matthews actually averaged 3.82 shots per game, which is significantly more than the 3.02 shots per game he put up in the regular season (where he missed 20 games but almost led the NHL in 5v5 goals).

Next: The NHL Playoff Format Is Terrible

Some people are questioning if Matthews had a good series, if he’s a playoff performer or whatever. I think those people are angry and looking for easy targets. Whatever their motivation, their take on the situation is incorrect. Auston Matthews played a great series. Don’t forget, a lot of what Marner does, he can do because the best players on the other team are keyed up on Matthews.

Based on the play of Matthews this series, he’d usually come away with more points. The fact that he didn’t, shouldn’t lead people to make unwarranted criticisms of his play.

stats from naturalstattrick.com

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