Toronto Maple Leafs: Six More Years With Nikita Zaitsev

When the Toronto Maple Leafs signed Nikita Zaitsev nearly two years ago, the organization had extremely high hopes for the then 24-year old Russian defenceman.

Zaitsev was coming off a career season in the KHL. He was CSKA Moscow’s number one defenceman, and the team was the best in the KHL that season. Zaitsev had been rumored to be close to signing with the Toronto Maple Leafs throughout the 2015-16 season.

As soon as the signing was announced, there was a growing buzz throughout fans and media alike, at least on Twitter. Many thought Zaitsev would be the key to solving the Leafs defensive woes. General Manager Lou Lamoriello was continually praised Zaitsev’s abilities throughout the press conference.

Two Years Later

Zaitsev has been with the Leafs for two full regular seasons now. He was heavily sheltered and given offensive opportunities in his rookie season. Zaitsev played on the first pair with Morgan Rielly. He was Mike Babcock’s second choice defenseman on the powerplay.

Zaitsev wasn’t exactly successful on the man-advantage. He had 12 points on the powerplay, and only one was a goal. Zaitsev put up 36 points in his rookie season, but only 4 were goals.

So this season, Babcock switched things up. He swapped out Zaitsev for Rielly on the powerplay (a move that has worked out excellently for Morgan) and put Zaitsev in Rielly’s place on the penalty kill. He was second among Leaf skaters in ice-time and averaged nearly three minutes of shorthanded ice-time per game. Unfortunately, Zaitsev struggled to stay healthy. He missed seventeen games between December and January with a foot injury and another 5 games in March with an illness.

Zaitsev’s underwhelming season can be attributed to injuries. But the underlying numbers seem to indicate it’s not just that.

Dragging Blueline Possession Down

https://twitter.com/laurkelly24/status/987170156399882240

https://twitter.com/laurkelly24/status/987170158501220352

There are some alarming conclusions here. First, Zaitsev has played the majority of his two seasons with Gardiner and Rielly. Zaitsev has played over 800 minutes a season with both of them, and their possession numbers are shocking.

Rielly really struggled when the two played together. Somehow, he becomes a positive possession player when they don’t play together. That trend has held up this season. Rielly finished the year at 51.6 CF% despite his regular partner Ron Hainsey finishing under 50%.

Gardiner took an even larger tumble this season. He’s always been an excellent possession player,  playing with Zaitsev, though, their number dipped below 50%. But when away from Zaitsev, he’s back at his normal CF%. (I would also like to point out that I hope Zaitsev and Carrick never play together at even-strength ever again. That is an awful number, even for six minutes.)

Hainsey spent the second-most ice-time on the blueline paired with Zaitsev (at even-strength, not shorthanded). For playing over 100 minutes together, that is a pretty rotten CF%. Thankfully, both seem to play better without the other.

Maybe Zaitsev is just a bad possession player. That’s all right. But he shouldn’t be dragging everyone else’s numbers down so significantly, especially Gardiner and Rielly. The Leafs have tried to play Zaitsev with their two best defensemen. Since it hasn’t worked, who’s next? I can’t see any other pair working out any better. Forcing Zaitsev with Rielly or Gardiner is not going to help fix the problem.

One Big Gamble

Exactly one year after signing with the Leafs, Zaitsev signed a contract extension. It included a modified no-trade clause that kicks in for the 2019-2020 season. Leafs fans were divided this time. Fans either thought it was going to be a disaster or a steal. Nevertheless, it seemed like a huge gamble for the Leafs to sign Zaitsev for the maximum length, given his less-than-stellar rookie season.

Zaitsev’s current NHL comparable (according to contract value and term, and career statistics) is Florida Panthers defenseman Mike Matheson. They’re relatively even in terms of games played and points up to this point in their careers. More importantly, they’re the only negative possession players on that list.

This past season, Matheson played over 1000 minutes on the Panthers second pair with Mark Pysyk. Their possession numbers together were still rough (49.65 CF%), but those numbers drop significantly when they play away from each other. Matheson’s CF% in the last two seasons is 49.15, which is way above Zaitsev’s 47.49. However, Matheson doesn’t drag his teammates’ possession numbers down like Zaitsev does. That is the one big caveat when comparing the two. Also, Matheson’s PDO holds steady at 99.5. Zaitsev’s PDO is at 102.36 over the last two seasons, indicating that he’s actually luckier on the ice. So why don’t his statistics reflect that?

Anton Belov

Zaitsev is 26 years old, and will turn 27 in October. He’s supposedly in the prime of his career. Does that get pushed back a few years because he was 25 in his rookie season?

I started looking at defensemen who made their NHL debuts in their mid-late 20s. The only player I could find with a similar career trajectory in that regard was Anton Belov.

You might remember him. He was a former Edmonton Oiler. Belov played 9 seasons in Russia before coming over to North America for 2013-14. In 57 games, he had 7 points and played about 16 minutes a game. He was 27 in his first and final NHL season. Belov returned to Russia in 2014 and hasn’t made another attempt to return to North America since.

We can at least find solace in the fact that Zaitsev has panned out much better than Belov did for Edmonton.

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As Good As He Gets?

Zaitsev is not going to get younger. If he’s not in the prime of his NHL career, he’s definitely reached his prime as a hockey player. Zaitsev will be 33 when contract is up in 2024. How much better is he going to get in the coming seasons?

Per Lamoriello’s words, the Leafs signed Zaitsev because they saw him as a fit for their top 4. Well, he’s been used like a top-2 defenseman for both seasons so far. The results haven’t been the most flattering.

Dragging down your team’s best defensemen is not the way to go. Both Rielly and Gardiner are better players without Zaitsev. Babcock and the Toronto Maple Leafs have to find Zaitsev a better partner. One who both complements and elevates his game. If the current numbers are any indication, the answer doesn’t lie with the Leafs current blueline. If they can, it will be the first step to determining how much better a defenseman Zaitsev can be.

Maybe Zaitsev is just a rotten possession player. It does happen. Those players tend not to be as successful, but if he can put up points, that can be overlooked. Right now though, Zaitsev is struggling in that department as much as he does in his own zone.

Next: Act Like You've Been Here Before

$4.5 million per season is not an absurd salary. But the contract may start to look like a mistake if Zaitsev’s struggles continue, especially into his thirties. Zaitsev needs to prove that he’s earned that contract, and he as maybe another two seasons to do it.

Unfortunately, I think the Leafs handed it to him before he did.

Statistics from Hockey Reference, NaturalStatTrick, Corsica Hockey & CapFriendly.