The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to win the first round playoff series against the Boston Bruins.
Now, it’s not for sure – they actually have to play the games – but I’m confident the Toronto Maple Leafs will prevail. In fact, I predict a sweep.
The Bruins have a great team, no doubt. Led by one of the NHL’s best lines, the Bruins are (at least technically) the favorite heading into the series. The Leafs, however, are only starting on the road because Auston Matthews missed about 25% of the season with a trio of injuries.
The Bruins finished with only one more win than the Leafs. They had seven extra points, but those were just loser-point padding. I am reasonably confident that Auston Matthews would be worth at least seven extra standings points in the 20 games he missed.
The Leafs will have Matthews for this series, and the Bruins will be without solid defenseman Brandon Carlo. This is an advantage for the Leafs which I believe more than equalizes the difference in the standings.
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Home Ice Advantage
Home Ice Advantage is going to play a role here – if the Leafs do end up losing, it’s not having home ice that will do them in. You see, at home the Leafs are almost unbeatable. At home, the Leafs can use a combination of Kadri and Plakanec to shut down any lines they want, while sending Auston Matthews out against lesser competition, and JVR out against even easier competition. This makes the Leafs close to unbeatable at the ACC.
On the road – where Matthews has to face the other team’s best players – is where they are vulnerable. Not that vulnerable, however. The Leafs have such a deep roster that even on the road the other team is facing having their matchups exploited.
If the Bruins’ Bergeron line – one of the most dominant in the NHL – can outplay the Matthews line, then the Bruins have a chance. But if Bergeron can’t handle Matthews the Leafs might just win in four.
It’s not like the Bruins aren’t a good team (and their defense and possession game will give the Leafs problems) but they aren’t hiding a FRANCHISE PLAYER on their second line. Their SECOND POWERPLAY unit doesn’t feature arguably the best player in the NHL to make the Playoffs.
They don’t have a luxury like Travis Dermott on the third pairing, a 36 goal scorer on the third line and the fastest player in the NHL (to make the Playoffs) on their fourth line.
The Toronto Maple Leafs are going to crush the Bruins. It’s going to be a sweep.
Bank on it.